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Provincial Election 2011

MetroMan

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It looks like it's already begun. With Dalton joining Twitter, and Hudak running an ad showing him as a family man, the race is starting up.

Will the Liberals be able to remind voters how the last Conservative government ruined Toronto's fortunes for over a decade with forced amalgamation and downloading or will the desire for change be stronger?
 
Here's how I think McGuinty is going to have to try to win back support:

McGuinty is going to have to get closer to the electorate. He's been holed up inside Queens Park and appears inaccessible. He needs to win back his popularity. Twitter might work. Good move.

I've seen ads showing the advantages of eHealth -- they're calling it "Electronic Health" -- and that is going in the right direction. The advantages of eHealth have to outshine the scandal. Make sure it's thoroughly investigated and lessons learned. Show that eHealth has saved Ontario nearly $500M this year alone and will continue to save money well into the future.

The HST is another point of contention with voters. I think that it was the right move but I'm not your typical voter. I've researched it and as an entrepreneur I've weight the pros and cons and I support it. Simplify the benefits for people to understand and get it out there.

Get OHIP to cover eye exams again.

To ensure that battleground Toronto is won again, the province is going to have to give Torontonians what we want: a functioning transit system. I think this is why funding for Transit City was held back. McGuinty is going to want to re-announce funding for it.

If Smitherman is Mayor, look for McGuinty to upload the $100M TTC operating costs he's asking for and for Smitherman's expanded Transit City to be a major McGuinty plank in Toronto.

Photo ops of shovels hitting the ground on the YorkU subway, the Sheppard line and a big announcement on the Eglinton line.

Amalgamation is almost universally unpopular in Toronto. While reversing it would do even more damage, changing the way each former city is represented in City Hall could help empower each of them and begin to undo the anger that people in the inner burbs feel against City Hall and the province for forcing it on them.

I think Toronto will have a lot to benefit from the low popularity of the Liberal government. This year's going to be full of good announcements for our city and the province in general.
 
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The HST will be the big issue.

BC is holding its referendum on repealing the HST 2 weeks before the election so it'll be on the top of the mind of the electorate here too, particularly if the referendum is successful. If the real estate market goes into a downward spiral between now and then the HST will be a huge target too.

Although a lot of the problems Ontario faces are not directly McGuinty's fault (eg, the loss of manufacturing, the deficit, rising taxes) I suspect much like the Ford phenomenon, noisy but not necessarily true rhetoric will dominate the election, particularly about taxes (despite tax hikes, Ontario's still got just about the lowest effective provincial tax load in Canada for the middle class).

The urban:suburban:rural divides will play prominently - particularly if Rob Ford doesn't win on Monday there will be quite a bit of latent hostility still floating around in the burbs, I think.

Edit: It doesn't matter who Hudak is. It matters who he is not. And that would be Dalton McGuinty. Just like McGuinty was not Eves/Harris. Just like Harris was not Rae. Just like Ford is not Miller. etc. etc etc. I suspect that's why Ontario keeps electing ineffective politicians that fail to live up to expectations and perpetuate the cycle.

I find McGuinty's meddling in people's personal lives and "premier dad" mentality wearing a bit thin However, once again we're reduced to the best of a bad bunch.

What's up with the NDP these days? At least what's-his-face tried to make himself known, once in a while.
 
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Liberals will have a hard time, because they are now deeply unpopular in rural/exurban and many suburban areas of Ontario.


They still dominate Toronto, the seats around Toronto could easily go Tory though.
 
On balance, I think the McGuinty years have been good for Ontario.

My politics are neither partisan, nor strictly ideological as my signature notes.

The deficit should be lower, programs better, the nanny-state reduced, but greater respect for the environment shown.

That said, one can not compare any government to some fictional ideal; but rather to its predecessors and competitors and weigh how it has handle real-world situations and choices.

So let's see:

As a capitalist:

I'm concerned about the economic competitiveness of Ontario, I like the elimination of capital tax on business, reduced corporate tax and the HST. This improves the competitiveness of all Ontario businesses, but particularly exporters. Especially with a rising currency, this is key.

While I prefer balanced budgets and declining debt, I must also compare Ontario's numbers with those south of the border, in Other provinces, and with the NDP numbers of early 90's and by are reasonable measure the deficit/debt is not out of line with current (or past) recessionary norms. That said, it should be lower, but its unlikely ti would have been under a conservative regime (see the Federal numbers); and its how quickly its brought under control now that counts.

As an environmentalist:

I'm concerned with steps taken to protect land and water and reduce pollution. On Green energy, for better or worse, this gov't is North America's leader. A quick review of the IESO web site (the operator's of Ontario's electrical system) coal power, the dirtiest and most pollution is all but gone except on the highest demand days of the year. Wind and solar and still low, but rising quickly, while investments in gas plants and hydro have rocketed.

Land protection has been slow, but still there is a Greenbelt, and there is an Endangered Species Act; and now a new commitment to set aside 1/2 of the boreal forest from any development (including logging).

There is more policy work needed on water quality and sustainable transportation options have been slow to be implemented, but do seem to be coming forward.....

As someone of Libertarian bent:

I don't want the government frivolously regulating personal moral choices that have no impact (or little) impact on others. I want more freedoms for all people, on issues such as alcohol, marijuana and prostitution. My only vice is the first, but I see no need for the state to legalize, and tax my vice while criminalizing the other 2.

However, the criminal law is Federal, so not McGuinty's issue; on alcohol we did get the re-corking (BYOB) policy through, though I will clearly state that's not good enough......(3am last call, 18 legal drinking age, longer LCBO hours, and more locations to purchase, are among my other concerns).....neither is this a top tier issue for me, and at least we moved in the right direction...

Finally, as a socialist:

I'm committed to greater opportunity for all, particularly children, having equal access to high quality healthcare and education....

We certainly have seriously issues regarding excessive tuition, lack of universal pharmacare and dentalcare etc.

But, again, we have moved, albeit very slowly, in the right direction.

Most major immunizations are now covered; and every child in a household with income under $20,000 now has dental care, including preventive care.

Minimum wage is up significantly, if below where it needs to be.

There is now a PST/HST tax credit and the low income tax bracket is down 1 point.

Perfect? Not by a long shot............but there's more there to be please with than not, and much more accomplished than in either the Rae or Harris years.

So far, so good.
 
That's a good summary of the accomplishments of the McGuinty government and I hope they're able to convey it to the public and translate it to popular support. Dalton deserves to continue to govern this province.

However, if polls continue to show the Liberals down early in the new year, perhaps the Liberals will have a better chance by providing change themselves with a new leader. I still think McGuinty can pull it off though. Let's see how the next few months go.
 
In regards to strategic thinking.....IF I were a LIBERAL insider and wanted to give the Premier advice on how to get re-elected....

Beyond conveying accomplishments (some, ie. HST, which the public will never support in large numbers)

What would I suggest?

1) Commute times as a well as the green-side of sustainable transportation need addressing. But the public is tired of announcements and construction w/o material improvement, from all parties and all levels of government.

So...deliver what you can, quickly, pre-election. In speaking w/GO mgmt, I am clear that GO can deliver 30-min off-peak service on Lakeshore now, for a very a very small subsidy increase (single-digit millions); and can add at least 1, maybe 2 more rush hour trains on the same line. DO THIS, by May 2011 at the latest (looks less blatant as electioneering, and gives voters time to appreciate the achievement, yet still have it fresh in their minds on voting day. Similar improvements possible (1 more Milton Train, 1 more Barrie Train, service to Allendale in Barrie)

At the same time 'lean' on whoever Toronto's mayor is to get at least 1 major round of TTC service improvement and rush the 'rockets' into operation ASAP. I'm sure the purse strings could be loosened just a little, to make this happen.

2) Diffuse the HST/Tax issue by bumping up the size of the tax credit, just a bit, but more importantly, getting it to more households, the current cut-off for 100% (or full credit) is $20,000, with it going to zero by 25k per year.

Bump the credit to $300 (min.) (its a nice round number) ; and bump the credit range to full credit ($25,000 in household income and a phase-out to $32,00). This will cost some money, but not THAT much.....and should mitigate voter anger.

3) Fix the 'bumps' on the Green Energy policy by nixing the remaining un-wanted gas plant (Holland Marsh) and adding one where it is (nanticoke) and using that to effectively shut down nanticoke completely as a coal plant. Happy eco-types, happy rural types in nanticoke who have jobs, win-win.

4) defuse the nanny-state thing with just one move, probably on booze, nothing so significant as to court controversy; but something that reduces the annoying perception some have of an overly busy-body gov't. Moving the last call to 3am would be one obviously choice; another might be quietly extending LCBO hours (late Fri+Sat in rural areas, later Sundays in big cities). This has the advantage of not being directly connected to gov't, so you can wait and see how it goes over before taking credit.

5) Resolve the Woodland Caribou protection issue once and for all, by announcing 1 major new provincial park or expansion thereof in key habitat, its a persistent eco-issue, and at worst will cost 1 seat up north over lost logging jobs; while securing seats in urban Ontario, as its almost all crown land, the cost if virtually nil.

6) Come closer to balancing the budget, meaningfully, most of all, under-promise, over-deliver, whatever the deficit was projected to be, it MUST come in at least a little lower.

7) Finally on social causes, welfare improvements are not a big seller (however much they may be good policy); But a raise in the minimum wage (last one, + indexing) would go some way to burnishing his 'progressive credentials. Its a cheap to government way, to give a 'raise' to large constituency. Also not increasing in the election year would def. be bad policy, and expose a left flank.

I think that would be most of my focus, outside of campaign proposals.

Any proposals should be succinct and believable. But we'll leave those to another day.
 
Excellent Northern Light!

Dalton needs to bring tangible benefits that people will associate with him and his government. Announcing extra trains on the GO line and increasing alcohol serving until 3am will stick in people's minds. The latter wouldn't cost much but would be welcome by both customers and businesses.

If Smitherman becomes Mayor, I'm looking forward to a lot of cooperation between him and McGuinty to brings some long awaited benefits to Toronto.
 
Hudak will have to run an anti-campaign to win, staying mostly under the radar and hammering on the Liberals' record. I still don't think the PCs have much of a vision for the province, nor do I think Hudak will connect with voters outside some rural areas.
 
I don't see how Tories have much to gain with HST; they've made it clear they won't repeal it. At best they can promise to lower the rate.

The NDP are the only party who have said they would repeal it ... so they might make some mileage ... though their profile is so low these days, I'm not even sure who the current leader is!
 
I don't see the HST as an issue for many, if any, people at all. There was no big outcry about the change. We hear about it in BC mostly, but here? Who cares? This is the first I've heard about the HST in Ontario for months.
 
I think people should be more worried about the greenbelt, and the Tories' staunch opposition to it. The anti-HST crowd should look to McGuinty's (slow) uploading of social service and transit costs reducing the pressures on property taxes, reversing the policies of the PC. And of course people who want clean air like those people in east Oakville/Clarkson should look to McGuinty aggressive renewable energy policy, like the new wind feed-in tariffs, which of course the Tories don't support.

Repealing the HST? The Ontario NDP are such a pathetic party, even the PC have more sense than that. They should be focusing on things like McGuinty's govt's stance on prostitution or the cancellation of Ontario Transit Vehicle Program. Instead, they take the same side of the same issue as mini-Mike Harris, but with an even more extreme stance. It's no wonder that not even people on the left vote for the NDP.
 
I don't see the HST as an issue for many, if any, people at all. There was no big outcry about the change. We hear about it in BC mostly, but here? Who cares? This is the first I've heard about the HST in Ontario for months.

There was a lot of HST out cry, you might not of heard it over the protest of the eco tax fiasco.
 

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