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Is it a good time to buy now

EvilC said:
I've set a date for myself - if the market does not start dipping by the end of the year, I will bite the bullet and plunge.
I've got my 20 percent saved for a $250k condo. I'm hoping that will net me a new (or less than 3 years old) 1B+D around 700sq feet with parking in midtown. Probably a little idealistic, but one can always hope.

Stupid thing is that in Toronto, supply never does seem to outpace demand.
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The key is to be selective in where and what you buy. Just stay focused on the high demand areas. If you can get an affordable condo for yourself you should take a serious look at it. Even if prices drop some along with rising interest rates your financing costs willl go up, so you get a cheaper condo, but it costs you more to live there. Does that make sense? And if interest rates stay down or fairly low, prices aren't likely to come down and are more likely to stay flat. I got a deal on by CASA unit from RBC at 5 years 3.75%. Locked this in a few months back. Already you would be very lucky to come even close to this kind of deal today. Just saying that again, 6 months to a year from now, todays rates may seem fantastic in comparison. If the price is right, the location is what you want, and the financing is good.....does it make sense to sit around and wait....

Not saying i have a crystal ball, but i like the Y/B area i'm invested in and i think the upside here is very nice. We're seeing a hint of that with FIVE now up to $650 sq ft. and Chaz trying at $700 to $750 sq ft....though remains to be seen if the Chaz prices will work, but they certainly aren't going to make wholesale cuts to them anyways.
 
myfive said:
The key is to be selective in where and what you buy. Just stay focused on the high demand areas. If you can get an affordable condo for yourself you should take a serious look at it. Even if prices drop some along with rising interest rates your financing costs willl go up, so you get a cheaper condo, but it costs you more to live there. Does that make sense? And if interest rates stay down or fairly low, prices aren't likely to come down and are more likely to stay flat. I got a deal on by CASA unit from RBC at 5 years 3.75%. Locked this in a few months back. Already you would be very lucky to come even close to this kind of deal today. Just saying that again, 6 months to a year from now, todays rates may seem fantastic in comparison. If the price is right, the location is what you want, and the financing is good.....does it make sense to sit around and wait....

Not saying i have a crystal ball, but i like the Y/B area i'm invested in and i think the upside here is very nice. We're seeing a hint of that with FIVE now up to $650 sq ft. and Chaz trying at $700 to $750 sq ft....though remains to be seen if the Chaz prices will work, but they certainly aren't going to make wholesale cuts to them anyways.
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I agree, location is key in this question to buy or not. There is opportunity where certain locations will outperform others. I suggest property that is close to good public transportation will help but truly believe North York is still underdeveloped, try looking there if you want the highest appreciation and upside.
 
jonathanyu said:
I agree, location is key in this question to buy or not. There is opportunity where certain locations will outperform others. I suggest property that is close to good public transportation will help but truly believe North York is still underdeveloped, try looking there if you want the highest appreciation and upside.
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I was actually considering the Liberty development at Sheppard/Allen. Close to transit and major highway, but the area isn't all that pretty right now. That may change in 5-10 years. I want something further south though (even though I'm a car nut, so TTC does not appeal to me).
 
EvilC said:
I was actually considering the Liberty development at Sheppard/Allen. Close to transit and major highway, but the area isn't all that pretty right now. That may change in 5-10 years. I want something further south though (even though I'm a car nut, so TTC does not appeal to me).
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Sheppard and Allen is an excellent location I think, it is very similar to Sheppard and Leslie. The prices in these areas are still reasonable. If prices do not dip by the end of the year, can you afford anything more south?
 
EvilC said:
I was actually considering the Liberty development at Sheppard/Allen. Close to transit and major highway, but the area isn't all that pretty right now. That may change in 5-10 years. I want something further south though (even though I'm a car nut, so TTC does not appeal to me).
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You might want to do some research on Liberty Development. Some people complained about their project in Markham. There's a very sour ex-owner of one of the units in the forum.
 
AKS said:
You might want to do some research on Liberty Development. Some people complained about their project in Markham. There's a very sour ex-owner of one of the units in the forum.
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was this also the developer that charged additional land development fees to buyers that weren't applicable since it was enacted after the initial purchase date ?
 
cdr108 said:
was this also the developer that charged additional land development fees to buyers that weren't applicable since it was enacted after the initial purchase date ?
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I think so. I just remember the complaints about the shoddy work they did with the condo. It makes cityplace look like a dream home.

The guy posted pics here
 
AKS said:
You might want to do some research on Liberty Development. Some people complained about their project in Markham. There's a very sour ex-owner of one of the units in the forum.
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Definitely heard some not-so-positive things about Liberty. Keeping an eye out as people do their inspections for M1 and M2 - they're moving in now.
 
EvilC said:
Definitely heard some not-so-positive things about Liberty. Keeping an eye out as people do their inspections for M1 and M2 - they're moving in now.
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If you were curious what might be developed on Sheppard and Allen. Have a look at this:
http://www.buildtoronto.ca/documents/properties-1035-Sheppard.pdf

Right now Build Toronto is highlighting four projects. There is a 54-acre plot at Sheppard Avenue West and the Allen Road, right next to the Downsview subway station, 350,000 square feet of land at Sherbourne and Front streets, 24 acres of industrial land at Islington Avenue and Lakeshore Boulevard and two acres at Yonge Street and York Mills Road.

Of them only the Downsview site is being touted as a great place for residential development and that will likely be through a sale to a private builder or builders who can then create about 3,000 new high and low rise units plus office and retail space.

By the time that happens we can probably count on those units selling for $600 or more a square foot.
 
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cdr108 said:
those numbers have been used indefinitely and are incorrect.
google stats from gov canada last census (2006) and you will find that number is for ontario, and the numbers have been steadily DECLINING.
70% (and also declining) of the 100K come to the GTA.



FYI ... the population of Toronto only increased by under 22,000 people from 2001 to 2006;
while within the GTA it increased by 425,000.

while the population has increased, it's not within the dt core so it doesn't really justify the huge supply in the area, not the $$$


http://www.toronto.ca/invest-in-toronto/excel/toronto_demographics.xls
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Two thoughs:

While I do not have the exact numbers at hand, I know the Welcome to Toronto boards on the 401, QEW, etc. which have a city population figure on them show a rate of increase that is greater than 60,000 over a five year period. It is possible that the single 5 year period from 2001 to 2006 showed a slower than average growth rate in Toronto, however an implied average growth rate of approximately 12,000 a year for the city seems low.

The second point is the relationship between population and housing units. The long term decline in average family size, combined with the increasing numbers of single people living on their own (as opposed to staying home until getting married) has meant that a much larger number of housing units is required to support a moderate rate of overall population growth, or even a stable population. A corollary of the situation where many older couples, or surviving spouses stay in the family home after all the children have gone, and often well past their capabilities to care and maintain their homes properly, is the impact on city schools. The ongoing pressure on the Toronto school boards to close and consolidate schools is directly related to the reduction in family sizes within a given school catchment area, combined with the number of homes which older couples or surviving spouses, and do not have any children all.

In summary - while overall population growth is one factor in housing demand, it is only portion of why the increase in demand for housing units in downtown Toronto is taking place.

AHK
 
News flash: That long term decline in family size is reversing. Take a walk through out the city and just look at all the young mom's pushing strollers, often with 2 or more kids in tow.

I expect the next major housing trend will be bungalows and stacked townhouses in the suburbs, perhaps even the inner suburbs. Etobicoke has so much potential.
 
AHK said:
In summary - while overall population growth is one factor in housing demand, it is only portion of why the increase in demand for housing units in downtown Toronto is taking place.

AHK
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Yeah...put another way, the kids are growing up now and want their own place to live. Who wants to live with mom and dad forever?
 
Yesterday I was riding my bike down some random residential streets around Finch/Bayview and noticed a lot of people doing yard work, and couldn't help noticing that most of them were elderly.

What I don't get is, why do so many old/retired people choose to live in such an expensive area as the GTA? I'm only here because I couldn't find a job as good as the one I found in North York anywhere else, if I could find the same job in a small town I'd leave and never look back. So why do retired people choose to live in a 600-800k house in North York when they could buy the same house in a small town for a quarter or a third of the price, or better yet they could go spend their retirement somewhere like Florida?
 
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