Alto - High Speed Rail (Toronto-Quebec City)

[416InTrouble]

you cannot possibly equate a rapid transit metro line in a dense urban environment with substantial tunneling to an intercity rail project. This is a joke right?

And also, Metrolinx isn’t managing Alto. So that alone should cut costs and timelines by 50%

When half of it is NOT tunnelled and in fairly sparse areas - yes I can - especially when Alto will need to navigate a portion of the exact same route. When has the Gov not understated infrastructure projects? How are you surprised by the notion that it’s likely already understated by 50%? Expropriations alone will run in the billions.

 

[416InTrouble]

Pertty simple explanation: land expropriation and site operation costs to tunnel in the downtown core of Toronto vs greenfield construction on expropriated farmland and existing ROWs.

It’s literally going to have to run nearly the entirety of the OL. Y’all act as if it’s not coming into Toronto lol

 

[416InTrouble]

Impossible? No; Unlikely, Yes.

For a host of reasons.

Aside from those already discussed by @Urban Sky and others..........

The Summerhill 'station' is not owned by the government, its privately-owned and would have to be purchased.

It would not be a cheap asset.

The LCBO makes a lot of $$ at that site, there are huge numbers of bulk buys at that store by the resto industry.

The cost of physically modifying it back to a railway terminal, while protecting its heritage are not immaterial.

It is not physically connected to the subway system currently.

You would also be running the service on CPKC's main line, that will be the case anyway for a distance of several km further east; but adding several more km which would require new/widened bridges and embankments, some of that abutting the homes of the richest people in the country, is not a small matter either.

Nothing that can't be overcome; but its not quite the easy low-lying fruit you might think.

Easier than Union by BILLIONS of dollars as demonstrated by inept Metrolinx who lied about the OL and said it would cost $9BN and here we are at over $27BN for a choo choo train that will run half of its journey outside at a cost of over a $BN per kilometre but somehow Alto is going to deliver 900km for only 3x more.when pigs fly maybe. This is not China

 

[generalcanada]

I am as skeptical as anyone of the eventual cost of Alto (not saying that I have a better estimate, I simply accept that these numbers are at best shots in the dark)

but I think we have indeed turned a page.

The cost to the consumer of operating a vehicle is not the deciding factor. It is the increasing congestion of roads and the cost of doing anything about that. And, the increasing cost of adding new airport capacity for intercity corridors. I expect people will continue to own automobiles. But the utility of those vehicles for specific travel needs, in the presence of attractive competing options, is what is changing, and not raw cost,.

Timing is everything:
- One does not have to be a Liberal supporter to appreciate that federal politics have changed and the current Cabinet is taking a more deliberate, targeted approach to nation building - and the new relationship with the US is adding urgency - leading to an appetite for federal spending on clearly defined projects.
- The Opposition and its current leader have now had plenty of opportunity to aggressively oppose Alto - in their somewhat churlish style of late - and all we are hearing from them is.....crickets. They may choose to sit back and throw darts as costs rise or things fall behind schedule, but they are not making a fundamental case against the plan. Perhaps they realise that if they do form the next government, they may be wise not to have drawn a line in the sand that they may have to walk back.
- The issue for government is not really the voter directly, but where they raise money for infrastructure. A financing plan that pulls in private investment (even if in some obscure way) seems to be doable here. The angst for government is how they would explain huge investment in highways and airports in an environment where private involvement in these is less welcome and direct user fees for these are a third rail proposition. (ask Doug Ford about that one).
- It's remarkable how VIA pitched its original HFR based on the lowest possible capital cost, out of fear of taxpayer resistance - yet the plan has morphed to a much higher cost estimate for something that even a decade ago was seen as a bauble. The government's observation that a branding strategy was needed has worked - "Alto" seems to be sticking. The voters have not revolted. Alberta has bigger things to grind an axe over, and may be eager to have an Alto of its own.
- Air travel has pretty much lost its attractiveness for corridor length travel. Porter may still be a conspicuous exception, but Westjet is reducing seat pitch and removing reclining seats. The public's appetite for something better is growing and may have passed a tipping point.
- The urban construction industry, which was perking along nicely, has stalled. A lot of construction workers and their unions are wondering where the next project is going to come from.

A long rant but I think it's time to accept - this thing is going to happen.

- Paul

I Think it was back in the summer when a committee pulled in martin inbleau who gave 0 details. The oppositions answer was "since we dont know anything we dont have an opinion" the ndp were the only ones who said it should be under unionized via rather than p3.

I expect that to change very quickly. When these detailed route designs come out.

 

[Adjei]

Easier than Union by BILLIONS of dollars as demonstrated by inept Metrolinx who lied about the OL and said it would cost $9BN and here we are at over $27BN for a choo choo train that will run half of its journey outside at a cost of over a $BN per kilometre but somehow Alto is going to deliver 900km for only 3x more.when pigs fly maybe. This is not China

That original estimate for the OL was for just the capital costs. The new estimate includes maintenance and operations if I'm not mistaken. The capital costs increased but not by that much.

 

[micheal_can]

Does anyone know why more stops in Quebec than Ontario and why Laval? If one suburb should have been included it’s Mississauga being much bigger.

For one simple reason.... geography. ALTO is being built east of Union Station. Mississauga is west of Union Station. That is it.No other reason. As far as when/if they build to the west, well that is a whole other topic all together.

 

[crs1026]

I Think it was back in the summer when a committee pulled in martin inbleau who gave 0 details. The oppositions answer was "since we dont know anything we dont have an opinion" the ndp were the only ones who said it should be under unionized via rather than p3.

I expect that to change very quickly. When these detailed route designs come out.

Enough has been said in the past month that if they wait til the route comes out to fight the thing, their position will then be narrowed to "you picked the wrong route" and they will align to whoever they can find who will feel aggrieved that they are too far (or too close) to the routing.

Which is a far cry from "this is a dumb idea under any scenario and you should stop it dead, otherwise when we get into power we will cancel it".

It opens the door to a government counter of, "OK tell us the right route and we will look at that one"

So yeah, I would say they are fundamentally on board, while reserving the right of the Loyal Opposition to offer criticism and to point out how badly the government is screwing up.

And it's not like they have offered any transportation platform of their own for the T-Q-M-Q corridor, they just throw pies in the government's face.

- Paul

 

[goodcitywhenfinished]

It’s literally going to have to run nearly the entirety of the OL. Y’all act as if it’s not coming into Toronto lol

Yes, and the point of my post was that the Toronto and Montreal urban segments will be the bulk of the cost of this project.

 

[guavadelic]

New Paige Saunders for CBC:

Well informed video by Paige on the project. Raises some important questions and highlights some contradictions in the stated mission of the project. One is the exclusivity being granted to Cadence to operate the service (45 years) and how the lack of competition could affect affordability. Spain's HSR service was highlighted and how it's liberization lead to increased competetion and lower fares.

Alto execs in interviews frequently highlight students and seniors as examples of future users of the service. Those are groups that generally have low disposable income. Unclear how the service will be kept affordable enough for large segments of the population, especially if they stick to their stated goal of eliminating government subsidies to operate the service.

Ultimately this may have been the only way to construct HSR in this country but they should be upfront and honest with Canadians about it.

 

[Urban Sky]

I know with HS2 in England, even though the northern leg has been cancelled, they're still constructing the junction just outside Birmingham to allow for London trains to "eventually" bypass the city and onwards to Crewe/ Manchester. It's an effort to "future proof" the line.

Can we expect this type of forward thinking on this project?

Whatever I kept saying about Toronto-Montreal Express services skipping Ottawa also applies to Ottawa-Quebec services skipping Montreal:

• The combined ridership of the to-be-skipped cities exceeds those of the routes bypassing the city to be skipped: (TO+OM)>TM or (OM+MQ)>OQ
• The ridership for trains skipping cities like Ottawa or Montreal is too small to fill entire trains
• Having trains skip cities like Ottawa and Montreal will always make you lose more passengers than you could ever gain by cutting 10-20 off travel time for markets like TM or OQ

It's no different that suburban HSR stations in many other parts of the world. Y'all are going to have to get used to the fact that not every train station will be in the downtown core. And given Ottawa's situation, it really doesn't make sense today to spend the money to change that. A quick 4 stop ride is just fine. And in my experience, yes, the people who complain about where Tremblay station is, are rarely transit users.

The fatal fault of Ottawa’s VIA station is not the ease of transfers into downtown Ottawa, but its substandard integration into Ottawa’s existing transit networks: If they had consolidated at least one of the two nearby transit hubs (Hurdman or Saint-Laurent) at Tremblay Road, it would have at least some relevance as a destination in its own right. If you look across the world, those intercity rail stations which also act as non-rail hubs tend to prosper, while those nobody ever visits for any other reason than taking an intercity train tend to fail. Ottawa clearly falls into the second category. One LRT line and a taxi stand makes no mobility hub, after all.

That said, ALTO stopping at Tremblay Road would simply match the Status Quo, whereas moving the ALTO stop away from where VIA Rail currently serves Montreal or Toronto would represent a massive inconvenience added…

It's still absolutely insane that the first leg is only starting in 4 years (if all goes well) and that construction for it alone will take 10 years (if all goes well). Canada is a joke nation,

The REM went in just 2 years from the public reveal of any details to construction and we already started discussing the need of $10+billion tunnels solely caused by the refusal of its promoters to consider anything beyond their narrow mandate multiple years before even the first passenger travelled (this month) through the Mont-Royal Tunnel. If you want more such insanity, then haste for the sake of haste is indeed your best friend…

Easier than Union by BILLIONS of dollars as demonstrated by inept Metrolinx who lied about the OL and said it would cost $9BN and here we are at over $27BN for a choo choo train that will run half of its journey outside at a cost of over a $BN per kilometre but somehow Alto is going to deliver 900km for only 3x more.when pigs fly maybe. This is not China

We really need to stop calling “having made estimations which turned out to be overoptimistic” as “lies”. I find any attempt to quantify costs more honest than the federal minister of Transportation yesterday who basically refused to name even a rough range for fear that he might have his name associated with that figure…

 

[nfitz]

I don't know where talk of having terminii at Cote de Liesse and Summerhill stations is coming from. They've talk about alternate terminii in the downtown core. Not having the terminii outside the downtown core!

Though I wouldn't be surprised if Phase 1 doesn't connect from somewhere like Cote de Liesse (or Parc?) into downtown. Like HS1, that could be in a later phase.

It almost looks like they are thinking about the old Deux-Montagnes Canadian Northern subdivision to Hawkesbury, and maybe even the long-abandoned L'Original subdivision to Ottawa ... or the M&O, which is surely a better option. Could one even fit in a couple of tracks alongside the REM? to Cote de Liesse station?

The consultations include Vankleek Hill and Saint-Eustache, which are roughly along the route I sketched out, but not Lachute, which actually has the railway running through it. And I don't know what to make of consultations in both Madoc and Stirling, but not Tweed. Maybe they just drew circles so they are not too far from anyone in the general vicinity.

They aren't in Lachute itself, but Brownsville, 6 km west of Lachute seems to be close enough.

So it has been announced that the first leg will be between Ottawa and Montreal to upgrade the Alexandria Sub.

They announced upgrading the Alexandria Sub? Do you have a link? How would you use the Alexandria sub and run through Laval?

Consultation website now live.

Online consultation platform

The train network will offer frequent, reliable and faster service thanks to modern, accessible and environmentally-friendly trains.

www.altotrain.ca

I don't see it - just the coming in January bit that was there earlier.

 

[Bordercollie]

I don't know where talk of having terminii at Cote de Liesse and Summerhill stations is coming from. They've talk about alternate terminii in the downtown core. Not having the terminii outside the downtown core!

Though I wouldn't be surprised if Phase 1 doesn't connect from somewhere like Cote de Liesse (or Parc?) into downtown. Like HS1, that could be in a later phase.

It almost looks like they are thinking about the old Deux-Montagnes Canadian Northern subdivision to Hawkesbury, and maybe even the long-abandoned L'Original subdivision to Ottawa ... or the M&O, which is surely a better option. Could one even fit in a couple of tracks alongside the REM? to Cote de Liesse station?

They aren't in Lachute itself, but Brownsville, 6 km west of Lachute seems to be close enough.

They announced upgrading the Alexandria Sub? Do you have a link? How would you use the Alexandria sub and run through Laval?

I don't see it - just the coming in January bit that was there earlier.

They would use the Alexandria Sub to get out of Ottawa. They own that corridor so it's a no brainer. Where it goes after that on the way to Montreal is not announced .

 

[nfitz]

They would use the Alexandria Sub to get out of Ottawa. They own that corridor so it's a no brainer. Where it goes after that on the way to Montreal is not announced .

My apologies, I was thinking of the CP Winchester sub, which Alto may use west of Smith Falls.

I'd be surprised that if they are going through Laval, that they'd come back to the Alexandra. More likely a subdivision further north, or greenfield to Casselman - especially with consultation planned near Lachute, St-Eustache, and Vankleek Hill!

 

[ARG1]

I don't know where talk of having terminii at Cote de Liesse and Summerhill stations is coming from. They've talk about alternate terminii in the downtown core. Not having the terminii outside the downtown core!

The CDL concern comes from the fact that many of us are/were unsure that Alto wants to commit to building a 2nd Mont Royal Tunnel in an attempt to save costs, and the revelation that their preferred alignment involves running the train along the north shore (likely crossing at Hawkesbury) exacerbated those concerns. Unless the plan is to run the train along the A13 into Downtown, you really don't have many options to cross the mountain besides the tunnel, and its reasonable to believe that the planners would settle on a more "fiscally astute" decision such as forcing a transfer at CDL/Canora or something - particularly to avoid having to backing in and out of a station.

Now that we've had that radio-canada interview, it does seem less likely now and some of the concerns have been lifted. I do feel there is value in being a bit weary however.

 

[Bordercollie]

The CDL concern comes from the fact that many of us are/were unsure that Alto wants to commit to building a 2nd Mont Royal Tunnel in an attempt to save costs, and the revelation that their preferred alignment involves running the train along the north shore (likely crossing at Hawkesbury) exacerbated those concerns. Unless the plan is to run the train along the A13 into Downtown, you really don't have many options to cross the mountain besides the tunnel, and its reasonable to believe that the planners would settle on a more "fiscally astute" decision such as forcing a transfer at CDL/Canora or something - particularly to avoid having to backing in and out of a station.

Now that we've had that radio-canada interview, it does seem less likely now and some of the concerns have been lifted. I do feel there is value in being a bit weary however.

It can still get cancelled if the government falls between now and when it's finished. Even with shovels in the ground it can be cancelled. Only to start it again twenty years later at 10x the cost.