2022/25 Russian-Ukrainian War

[kEiThZ]

If Europe could share its intelligence, why hasn't it stepped in when the US cut it off? Again, is it no political will, or that US has leverage over Europe that precludes EU from stepping in?

Who says the Europeans haven't been sharing? One of the guys featured here was a seat mate on my senior Captain's course:

And you can see European and NATO assets doing surveillance runs on flight trackers. There are capabilities nobody else has. Particularly with satellite surveillance.

But also, the Europeans have been forever reticent about simply ignoring American demands and just going all out. This was even true under Biden. No idea why.

PS. Also a good reminder why we need to have our own capabilities on things like airborne early warning and signals intelligence. This was all considered too much warmongering for Canadians years ago. Hope it's obvious why we need our own now.

PPS. Also a good reminder why we need to watch for the balance between capability and sovereignty. In the video you can see the AWACS refuelling. This is something the Saab Globaleye is not capable of. Remember this when the fight starts over what AEW aircraft we should buy.

And that's just the intelligence. There is also the question of air defenses. Patriot is the backbone of the Ukrainian ballistic missile defense right now. F-16s are the backbone of the cruise missile defense. The munitions for those are manufactured by the US. Most of European weapon systems have subcomponents sourced from US, making those weapons systems subject to third party authorization contract clause (i.e. US can veto their use by Ukraine).

The Americans haven't to date really forced that veto. Doing so would really impact defence sales. They do, however, hold off spares and maintenance knowledge, when they want to push the Ukrainians.

Would be nice to see somebody truly independent like the French (only country with an anti-ITAR policy) step up to provide alternatives.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Perhaps he wants to rack up the peace deals as he seems to crave a Nobel Peace Prize...

Perhaps he doesn't give a shit about Ukraine and never has. Perhaps it doesn't matter to him that he's setting Ukraine up for a complete Russian takeover a few years from now. Perhaps he just wants all the nagging questions about Ukraine from the reporters to go away. Perhaps he wants to score a cheap victory with his base and to say that he ended the war in Ukraine just like he promised on the campaign trail. Perhaps he just wants the news cycle to talk about anything other than the Epstein files, and throwing Ukraine under the bus will do just that. Perhaps in his head he truly believes that he's the one responsible for stopping the bloody war between "Albania and Uberbaijan" and that him "ending" the war between Ukraine and Russia at the expense of Ukrainian people is the final achievement he needs to get in order to satisfy the Nobel peace prize criteria.

I don't know, not being a psychopath myself, it's really hard for me to imagine what's happening in the mind of a clinical psychopath.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Europeans have been forever reticent about simply ignoring American demands and just going all out. This was even true under Biden. No idea why.

Joe Biden's administration suffered immensely from lack of balls. Both Joe and his national security advisor Jake Sullivan were scared shitless of provoking Russia into a nuclear strike. Putin knew this and kept bluffing about nuclear escalation at every opportunity. Jake Sullivan managed to convince Biden at every opportunity that Putin was not bluffing, even though the events that transpired demonstrated time and again that it was always just a bluff. Anyway, that's why the Biden administration hamstrung Ukraine at every turn and is on record pressuring EU to have done the same. That is the only reason why Ukraine has always been forced to fight with one hand tied behind their back.

 

[kEiThZ]

Perhaps he doesn't give a shit about Ukraine and never has. Perhaps it doesn't matter to him that he's setting Ukraine up for a complete Russian takeover a few years from now. Perhaps he just wants all the nagging questions about Ukraine from the reporters to go away. Perhaps he wants to score a cheap victory with his base and to say that he ended the war in Ukraine just like he promised on the campaign trail. Perhaps he just wants the news cycle to talk about anything other than the Epstein files, and throwing Ukraine under the bus will do just that. Perhaps in his head he truly believes that he's the one responsible for stopping the bloody war between "Albania and Uberbaijan" and that him "ending" the war between Ukraine and Russia at the expense of Ukrainian people is the final achievement he needs to get in order to satisfy the Nobel peace prize criteria.

I don't know, not being a psychopath myself, it's really hard for me to imagine what's happening in the mind of a clinical psychopath.

It's not just Trump. The Administration is full of Russian apologists. You have guys like Colby who have convinced themselves that Ukraine needs to be sacrificed to fight China. I don't get the logic. But then I don't have degrees from Yale and Harvard.....

 

[PL1]

Perhaps he doesn't give a shit about Ukraine and never has. Perhaps it doesn't matter to him that he's setting Ukraine up for a complete Russian takeover a few years from now. Perhaps he just wants all the nagging questions about Ukraine from the reporters to go away. Perhaps he wants to score a cheap victory with his base and to say that he ended the war in Ukraine just like he promised on the campaign trail. Perhaps he just wants the news cycle to talk about anything other than the Epstein files, and throwing Ukraine under the bus will do just that. Perhaps in his head he truly believes that he's the one responsible for stopping the bloody war between "Albania and Uberbaijan" and that him "ending" the war between Ukraine and Russia at the expense of Ukrainian people is the final achievement he needs to get in order to satisfy the Nobel peace prize criteria.

I don't know, not being a psychopath myself, it's really hard for me to imagine what's happening in the mind of a clinical psychopath.

Oh, I full agree with you. Trump is in it for himself. Though I think he thinks he deserves a Peace Prize

 

[lenaitch]

This was always the inevitable outcome once Trump took power.

Ukraine getting the Palestine peace deal treatment

What, is the ceded area proposed to be turned into a resort casino?

I'm curious how Trump et al could reasonably expect Ukraine to dictate the policies of NATO and G7.

Very much this.

And this is the downside of Europe relying so much on the US. They should have been ramping up production massively since day one of the Full Scale Invasion. Sufficiently so that they could replace the US. The threat of Trump returning was not taken seriously.

And Europe (as well as us) should continue their build up and commitment, regardless of this 'deal', because anyone who has read even the slightest bit of history should know that Russia will always be an aggressor state.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Sounds like Trump lackeys are going for the jugular

https://twitter.com/x/status/1992020459928359381

 

[Admiral Beez]

Perhaps he doesn't give a shit about Ukraine and never has.

Only Ukraine can save itself. Ukraine is going to have to take on an Israeli national defence mindset. To Israelis there is no where to flee to, they understand that if Israel falls to invasion, then every Israeli man, woman and child will be butchered by the invaders. With that mindset, every Israeli adult is a trained soldier (even the orthodox Haredi as of last year), and at times of war, every Israeli fights. There is no home front where Israel's civilians can focus on the economy, keeping the shops open, or regular life. Everyone fights, for example during the Yom Kippur war, over 10% of all Israel adult males served in combat roles, with as many women in military supporting roles. If Ukraine did this, their army would double in size. Ukrainians, including the estimated five million who fled since 2022, need to see the invasion as an existential struggle for their people. With this in mind, every Ukrainian adult needs to be trained, armed and ready to fight. That's one path. The other path is Ukraine's military remains at approximately 900,000, which represents about 4.5% of the adult population, and is overrun. In this case, the only place Ukrainian culture and language exists is in the diaspora of refugees and emigrants found across the globe.

 

[afransen]

Only Ukraine can save itself. Ukraine is going to have to take on an Israeli national defence mindset. To Israelis there is no where to flee to, they understand that if Israel falls to invasion, then every Israeli man, woman and child will be butchered by the invaders. With that mindset, every Israeli adult is a trained soldier (even the orthodox Haredi as of last year), and at times of war, every Israeli fights. There is no home front where Israel's civilians can focus on the economy, keeping the shops open, or regular life. Everyone fights, for example during the Yom Kippur war, over 10% of all Israel adult males served in combat roles, with as many women in military supporting roles. If Ukraine did this, their army would double in size. Ukrainians, including the estimated five million who fled since 2022, need to see the invasion as an existential struggle for their people. With this in mind, every Ukrainian adult needs to be trained, armed and ready to fight. That's one path. The other path is Ukraine's military remains at approximately 900,000, which represents about 4.5% of the adult population, and is overrun. In this case, the only place Ukrainian culture and language exists is in the diaspora of refugees and emigrants found across the globe.

Israel receives $4B in annual military funding from the US, and a lot of US weapons.

 

[kEiThZ]

Israel receives $4B in annual military funding from the US, and a lot of US weapons.

Not just weapons. Imagine getting American carrier groups to protect your country and American bombers to deliver bunker busters to literal millimetre precision.

 

[kEiThZ]

Only Ukraine can save itself. Ukraine is going to have to take on an Israeli national defence mindset. To Israelis there is no where to flee to, they understand that if Israel falls to invasion, then every Israeli man, woman and child will be butchered by the invaders. With that mindset, every Israeli adult is a trained soldier (even the orthodox Haredi as of last year), and at times of war, every Israeli fights. There is no home front where Israel's civilians can focus on the economy, keeping the shops open, or regular life. Everyone fights, for example during the Yom Kippur war, over 10% of all Israel adult males served in combat roles, with as many women in military supporting roles. If Ukraine did this, their army would double in size. Ukrainians, including the estimated five million who fled since 2022, need to see the invasion as an existential struggle for their people. With this in mind, every Ukrainian adult needs to be trained, armed and ready to fight. That's one path. The other path is Ukraine's military remains at approximately 900,000, which represents about 4.5% of the adult population, and is overrun. In this case, the only place Ukrainian culture and language exists is in the diaspora of refugees and emigrants found across the globe.

First of y'all, Ukraine is doing a lot more than most of the West would. Look at what a sham "elbows up" turned out to be in Canada. How many interprovincial trade barriers came down? The French are willing to risk create a debt crisis and full on Eurozone crisis over changing the retirement age from 62. Germany is so unconcerned with war, it created an economic crisis by shutting down nuclear power plants. So I would cut the Ukrainians some slack. They have shown far more fight and resolve than the rest of us would even think about.

Next, Ukraine doesn't get wiped out if they lose. Russia gets the southern provinces and Ukraine stays poor and defiant. The existential threat for Ukraine has passed.

Institutions like NATO and the EU will be in trouble though, if Russia moves on the Baltics.

 

[wopchop]

With that mindset, every Israeli adult is a trained soldier (even the orthodox Haredi as of last year), and at times of war, every Israeli fights.

Officially, yes, but in practice no.

Only 1,212 of the 24,000 Haredi men called up in past year have begun enlisting

Haredim continue legislative boycott for third week in effort to pressure PM to pass a law exempting yeshiva students from military service. Coalition bills removed from agenda

www.timesofisrael.com

Only 1,212, or five percent, of the 24,000 ultra-Orthodox men who have received initial draft notices since July 2024 have begun the enlistment process, the head of the IDF Personnel Directorate’s Planning and Personnel Management Division told lawmakers on Wednesday, calling the current sanctions available to the military insufficient for mobilizing “significant numbers” of Haredim.

Addressing the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee’s Subcommittee for IDF Human Resources, Brig. Gen. Shay Tayeb said that 2,399 of those who have received draft notices have since been sent demands for an immediate call-up, while 545 have not turned up by their mandatory enlistment reporting date.

Currently, approximately 80,000 Haredi men between the ages of 18 and 24 are eligible for military service and have not enlisted.

 

[narduch]

Kind of weird to want to relate Israel to Ukraine.

Israel are closer to Russia as they are both the occupiers.

 

[kEiThZ]

Officially, yes, but in practice no.

Yep. Like a lot of places, their religious are hypocrites. Push the country into wars and then refuse to do their part.

Ukraine doesn't have that problem. Their debate is over how much they should accept the Russian boot.

 

[narduch]

Ukraine's military is fighting a real existential threat. That's not the same thing in Israel.

The Israeli military is used to commit genocide and war crimes. It makes total logical sense for people with real religious conscience to not want to be a part of that