Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

[SunriseChampion]

Stats Can is currently sending out kits to random people to do antibody testing. Angus Reid in conjunction with St Mike’s hospital did a survey with 10000 people in the summer and are now doing Phase 2. Otherwise, you can pay for testing if you are curious.

Pay who?! Wallet is open. Who wants my money?

Not sure why it's not a part of our public health plan to deal with this plague, seeing as it might be helpful to know that actual extent of the problem.

 

[PinkLucy]

Lifelabs is doing it; probably other testing sites as well. https://www.lifelabs.com/test/covid19-antibody/

 

[SunriseChampion]

Lifelabs is doing it; probably other testing sites as well. https://www.lifelabs.com/test/covid19-antibody/

I had no idea. Until last month I was completely absorbed by work to my detriment, and in the last month I've been trying to avoid everything.

We've placed bets at work that we've all already had it. Now I can win my money!

Wait.....I need a requisition from my doctor.....and they're saying it's only likely to detect antibodies up to 4 months post-exposure.
We were all infected in mid-March. :/

 

[SunriseChampion]

Wish I knew the answer. On my site (a commercial office building for a non specific industry) they are saying it will be open, but I feel like they are just full of shit (they are already totally useless).

That sounds like a no to me.

Need to know, because I'm sending a bunch of trailers, including a step-deck there on Thursday.

Oh man, I hope they sort it out. Nothing worse than "we're good, get er done" and you show up all ready to go and it's the farthest thing from "we're good".


How has it been on you projects during this plague? Higher labour inspector enforcement? Slower builds? No change?

 

[Admiral Beez]

So, do tell, what's the reason it's spreading so rapidly yet again in LTC? With all the knowledge, additional PPE, etc. You can't simply just declare you'll "protect LTC" unless it is 100% complete isolation. Workers will bring it in, eventually.

Yes, it’s the workers, it always was. The employees of LTC homes are walking reapers, spreading death as they do their rounds. The only fix is to have rapid testing at the beginning of the shift, and they can‘t enter the facility until they prove negative. And if they’re positive, send them home with pay for two weeks or however long it takes for the inflected workers to pass a subsequent rapid test. No pass, no entry. And under no circumstances can a person enter, let alone work at more than one high risk environment (LTC, hospital, etc). Ontario should have mandated these as full time jobs back in spring 2020.

 

[zang]

This is untrue and you know it. The vast majority of infections are asymptomatic or of mild symptom. It's been surmised for months now (by epidmiologists and other medical professionals) that the actual case numbers are multiples higher than confirmed cases.

Confirmed cases are known data and thus, by nature, truth. Surmising, conjecture, estimates are simply that and not guarantees. I deal in known data. And we know for absolutely sure that 0.2% of the population of this province has had this virus. Antigen testing may show different, but we’ve got a *lot* of data in this regard now, and plenty of people with no symptoms are getting tested (see; every test done at a pharmacy now). It would serve that an astoundingly high level of asymptomatic testing would show up, but it hasn’t.

So it’s not “multiples”. Non-conservative estimates are that asymptomatics are up to 40% in children and 25% in adults. A recent meta-analysis says 17% in the latter (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3)

Clinically, “mild” cases basically include everything up to hospitalization-level. Yes, some have something equivalent to a cold, but it’s not the majority by any means. Flu-like symptoms (extreme fatigue, fever, joint ache) are the norm, not the exception. The high level of pre-symptomatic transmission is what’s gives the impression of a high level of asymptomatic spread. At best, we can maybe say that the real number of total infected is closer to 0.5%. But it’s still a very small percentage of the population.

That number is probably higher in countries with inadequate testing or charge for the test, but that’s not us.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Confirmed cases are known data and thus, by nature, truth. Surmising, conjecture, estimates are simply that and not guarantees. I deal in known data.

Ok. So, then you'd be the perfect person to explain to me the results of the meta-analysis study you cited.

And we know for absolutely sure that 0.2% of the population of this province has had this virus. Antigen testing may show different, but we’ve got a *lot* of data in this regard now, and plenty of people with no symptoms are getting tested (see; every test done at a pharmacy now).

Is that a fact? Like my diabetic and asthmatic mate who also has lung disease being turned away from testing when he presented with shortness of breath and cough? Oh, sorry, that's WITH symptoms and still denied testing.

(He tested negative twice....it was a different virus that nearly killed him this time ; ) )

Testing has been a bit lacking.

It would serve that an astoundingly high level of asymptomatic testing would show up, but it hasn’t.

What are the numbers of confirmed cases in Ontario that presented as asymptomatic?

So it’s not “multiples”. Non-conservative estimates are that asymptomatics are up to 40% in children and 25% in adults. A recent meta-analysis says 17% in the latter (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3)

From the actual study cited in the article above:

Estimating the extent of asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: Systematic review and meta-analysis​

A total of 2,454 articles were screened for title and abstract, and 161 full-text articles were assessed for inclusion (Figure 2). Major reasons for exclusion were inadequate sampling frame and insufficient follow-up time to accurately classify the asymptomatic cases. The full list of excluded studies with reasons is presented in Supplemental Appendix 2. Thirteen articles—nine published and four preprints—from seven countries (China, n = 4; United States, n = 4; Taiwan, n = 1; Brunei, n = 1; Korea, n = 1; France, n = 1; and Italy, n = 1) that tested 21,708 close contacts of at least 849 confirmed COVID-19 cases, of which 663 were positive and 111 were asymptomatic, met the eligibility criteria for the estimation of the primary outcome (10–22).


The sampling frames of the selected studies included residents of skilled nursing facilities (SNFs; 10, 12, 15, 19, 20); high-risk close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases (11, 13, 14, 17, 18, 21); and a whole district surveillance program in Italy (16). The demographic characteristics (Table 1) indicate that most of the tested individuals were adults, with a mean age of more than 75 years in the five SNF studies and a mean age of more than 31 years in the non-aged care studies. The proportions of children and young people (0–20 years) ranged from 6% to 23.5%.

Nice try.

You'll note that only one study cited in the meta-analysis, from Italy, was of a general population. In this case 85% of the population of a town showed asymptomatic cases to be 40% of the total.

Given the variables in the other studies, I wouldn't call this definitive at all.


You're right though, without widespread antigen testing we simply cannot know and so have to carry on acting as if a virus with a fatality rate of 2-3% is an existential crisis.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Wish I knew the answer. On my site (a commercial office building for a non specific industry) they are saying it will be open, but I feel like they are just full of shit (they are already totally useless). Need to know, because I'm sending a bunch of trailers, including a step-deck there on Thursday.

Time for some humour...

 

[tayser]

I was wondering about the restrictions in the construction sector, and they have just been published. They are incredibly strict and clear as crystal. The list below is what is permitted.

• Permitted construction activities or projects and related services, including land surveying and demolition services.
• Construction projects and services associated with the healthcare sector and long-term care, including new facilities, expansions, renovations and conversion of spaces that could be repurposed for health care space.
• Construction projects and services required to ensure safe and reliable operations of, or to provide new capacity in, provincialand municipal infrastructure, including transit, transportation, energy, mining and justice sectors beyond the day-to-day maintenance.
• Construction projects and services that support the operations of, and provide new capacity in schools, colleges, universities, municipal infrastructure and child care centres within the meaning of the Child Care and Early Years Act, 2014.
• Construction projects under the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program
• Construction projects and services that support the operations of Broadband internet and cellular technologies and services.
• Critical industrial construction activities required for,
the maintenance and operations of petrochemical plants and refineries,
significant industrial petrochemical projects where preliminary work has already commenced,
industrial construction and modifications to existing industrial structures limited solely to work necessary for the production,maintenance, and/or enhancement of Personal Protective Equipment, medical devices (such as ventilators), and other identified products directly related to combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Construction projects that are due to be completed before July 2021and that would provide additional capacity in the production, processing, manufacturing or distribution of food, beverages or agricultural products.
• Construction projects that were commenced before January 12, 2021, and that would,
i.provide additional capacity for businesses that provide logistical support, distribution services, warehousing, storage or shipping and delivery services, or
ii.provide additional capacity in the operation and delivery of Information Technology (IT) services or telecommunications services.
• Residential construction projects where,
a footing permit has been granted for single family, semi-detached and townhomes
the project is a condominium, mixed use or other residential building, or
the project involves renovations to residential properties and construction work was started before January 12, 2021.
• Construction to prepare a site for an institutional, commercial, industrial or residential development, including any necessary excavation, grading, roads or utilities infrastructure.
• Construction and maintenance activities necessary to temporarily close construction sites that have paused or are not active andto ensure ongoing public safety.
• Below-grade multi-unit residential construction projects, such as apartments and condominiums. The Ontario government also provided that businesses must follow public health measures and should review the workplace safety guidelines.
Construction on any project intended to provide either,
affordable housing, or
shelter or supports for vulnerable persons,
If the project is being funded in whole or in part by, or is being undertaken by, any of the following:
A. the Crown in right of Canada or in right of Ontario,
B. an agency of the Crown in right of Canada or in right of Ontario,
C. a municipality,
D. a service manager as defined in theHousing Services Act, 2011, or
E. a registered charity and not for profit within the meaning of theIncome Tax Act(Canada).

Enhanced with:

Workplace testing
Additional enforcement to ensure compliance

This is an interesting approach - far too much legalese and way open for interpretation. During our second wave lockdown, the construction sector was deemed essential, however, sites in the burbs (i.e building a house) could only have a max of 5 people at any one time and you couldn't have multiple trades working on site each day. Larger-than-a-suburban-house sites had to curtail the # of people they'd normally have on site by a specific percentage... i.e you could only have 25% of the normal amount of people on larger sites.

This type of % restriction also applied to industries like meatworks (which was a major source of community spread).

The only way to snuff this virus is to ensure there is maximum separation of ______everyone_____ by reducing the chances of contact.

 

[lenaitch]

I'm watching a TV news item about travellers returning from abroad, particularly Mexico and the Caribbean having trouble getting Covid tests and the cost of them. I recognize it's a rule change but gotta admit I'm having trouble mustering any sympathy when we've been told for months not to travel. I saw another story that tracked a case of the 'UK variant' to a person in York Region who failed to self-isolate on return from the UK. What happened to the early-on practice of putting them up in isolation facilities?

 

[SunriseChampion]

This is an interesting approach - far too much legalese and way open for interpretation. During our second wave lockdown, the construction sector was deemed essential, however, sites in the burbs (i.e building a house) could only have a max of 5 people at any one time and you couldn't have multiple trades working on site each day.

That's interesting and seems like a good idea.

It would also drive all the deadline-obsessed homeowners, builders, and architects insane which is perfect.

 

[SunriseChampion]

I'm watching a TV news item about travellers returning from abroad, particularly Mexico and the Caribbean having trouble getting Covid tests and the cost of them. I recognize it's a rule change but gotta admit I'm having trouble mustering any sympathy when we've been told for months not to travel.

I'm against most of these restrictions and I have no sympathy for these people. At all. I'd almost leave them at their destinations.
My building manager has been in Cuba three times since the plague hit.

I kid you not.

I saw another story that tracked a case of the 'UK variant' to a person in York Region who failed to self-isolate on return from the UK. What happened to the early-on practice of putting them up in isolation facilities?

Good question. Why haven't we done that?

I know travellers aren't the largest driver of transmission but they sure are the only driver of importation of novel mutations of the virus.

 

[Jonny5]

EMERGENCY ALERT: Stay at home -- unless you think you should go out.

 

[Northern Light]

In the spirit of the above.............lets take a look at the detailed section on work exceptions for going out..........

Courtesy:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1349724700247781377

 

[Northern Light]

Speaking of confusing double-speak...................what in the ever-living........is this?

Thou shalt not evict someone unless the the LTB or the Court gets grumpy? Really?