Toronto Ontario Line 3 | ?m | ?s

[syn]

Are we actually expecting some new technology?

All this talk of technology sounds like a bit of a red herring to me. There’s no technology that’s going to magically solve the capacity issues at hand.

A LIM-based technology would allow for shorter train heights and therefore smaller tunnels. LIM seems like the obvious choice, although I don’t believe it would save that much money overall; tunnelling is only a small fraction of project costs. We might save $25 Million to $100 Million on tunnelling.

Again, the fatal flaw here is capacity. We can’t just hope for a magic technology to make that problem go away. The line as proposed is a 20k pphp line. 20k pphpd is not compatible with “smaller trains”

That's the problem. There isn't a solution that will solve the capacity issues the way an actual subway could.

This is so strange. We're talking about using a light rail variant for a downtown line that demands maximum capacity, and building full-fledged subways in the suburbs.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Like it is getting built...

Don't underestimate stupidity

I really don’t see how +300 metres will add 3 mins in travel time, even with the two curves

2 curves plus the bending occurring along the lakeshore corridor. Each curve will take about 45 seconds to clear plus the slowdown and speeding up time. There's also the fact that the route travels a greater distance overall, and the fact that the curves will act as choke points, meaning train bunching is going to be a very likely occurance. If Ford really wants to run this thing along the Lakeshore corridor, just put the thing under King street. Makes building a Dundas subway a lot easier in the future if needed, also means you could probably run the line as a subway.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I know. I keep looking at this map, feeling intuitively that it shouldn’t work, but I think it’s feasible

My top concern right now is capacity. The DRL North was projected to move 20,000 pphpd in 2031, and that’s with the line running just between Osgoode and Sheppard. If the government is planning to use smaller trains, will this thing be able to handle the capacity of a line spanning from Exhibition to Don Mills Station? That’s probably a 25,000 pphpd line right there.

Unless the government can demonstrate that this can move 30,000 pphpd, I’ll be opposing this plan. And frankly, considering population growth, I’m not even comfortable with 30,000 pphpd. With an extension to Sheppard plus population growth, by 2041 we will be exceeding 30k pphpd; that’s barely 10 years after this thing will open. This proposal is shaping up to be Canada Line 2.0

But hey, perhaps it’s better to have over capacity transit than no transit at all?

Extending beyond University won't increase peak-point ridership as 75% of riders will be exiting or transferring between Yonge/University. Anyone continuing beyond will be counter-peak.

I’m estimating the proposed line will move 20k pphpd based on previous ridership estimations

The 2011 TTC Downtown Rapid Transit Expansion study predicted 15k pphpd for a DRL spanning between Dundas West and the Science Centre. And keep in mind that since 2011, both Toronto population growth and job growth have far exceeded official projections, so the 2011 DTRES is likely severely underestimating ridership

The 2015 Yonge Relief Network Study then predicted that a line between Osgoode and Don Mills station would produce 19k pphpd.

Considering those two studies, and Toronto’s growth rapidly exceeding expectations, I think 2031 ridership of 17k to 20k for the Ontario Line is entirely reasonable.

Even if we assume that my estimate was a bit optimistic, we still need to account for future network expansion (that is... unless we’re willing to accept that this thing will permanently terminate at Eglinton). An extension to Sheppard would certainly push the 2031 ridership up to 20,000 pphpd, according to Metrolinx.

In terms of capacity, that means that we’re going to need capacity around 30,000 pphpd to accommodate growth for the decades to come. Which brings me back to my point: the ridership of the Ontario Line is fundamentally incompatible with running smaller trains. The Ontario Line will be overcapacity.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Odds are very high that this Ontario Line proposal won't get federal funding, and thus not be built.

1. As was mentioned earlier this week, the Provincial government has already positioned themselves to blame Trudeau if the Ontario Line doesn't get built. I believe it was last month where they scheduled a whole press conference to blame the Feds for not providing funding to the line. And keep in mind that the Business Cases Analysis still hadn't been released at that point, so it was literally impossible for the Federal government to contribute funding. That's a very odd move, if you genuinely wanted the funding to come. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if this Business Case has some fatal flaws built in, specifically so the proposal cannot receive federal funding.

2. As per my previous post, assuming the government does intend to use smaller trains, capacity will be inadequate on the Ontario Line. It's very easy for the government to justifiably deny fundings on those grounds.

3. This mysterious "new" technology. The fact that the government seems to be proposing some kind of new technology should raise red flags for everyone. Rail is an extremely mature technology, and Toronto and the TTC are far from being the busiest and most crowded cities and metro systems in the world. If the Beijings, Londons and Tokyos of the world haven't found some magical new technology for their systems, its highly unlikely we'll develop anything worthwhile here. I'm expecting this "new" technology to end up being good-old LIM, but if it's indeed something new, it probably isn't getting federal funding, and rightfully so.

4. Most importantly, Ford is extremely unpopular in Ontario, and even more so in Toronto; far more unpopular than Trudeau. It's very easy for Trudeau to say that the plan is garbage, and that the Provincial govenremt is uncooperative, and I'm sure people would eat it up.

If the federal government doesn't provide funding, presumably in the hopes of a friendlier government in three years, it won't be a huge setback, as the Relief Line South was pretty damn close to shovel-ready, while the Ontario Line is essentially starting from zero. We'd likely lose a year at most, relative to a realistic Ontario Line timetable. From a network building perspective, this is likely a favourable outcome, as the Relief Line South + North is a more robust plan, and costs around the same amount of money anyways.

I'll wait for the BCA to make final judgement, but unless concerns over Ontario Line capacity are alleviated, I'll be hoping for the federal government to deny funding to the proposal, in exchange for Relief Line South + North funding three years from now.

 

[syn]

I wonder how Ford will explain his way out of the 'we can build it without any other funding' hole he's 'Doug' himself into.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I wonder how Ford will explain his way out of the 'we can build it without any other funding' hole he's 'Doug' himself into.

The same way he explained his way out of his "no jobs will be lost" hole, and his "they'll be no hallway medicine within a year" hole.

On that note too, the Ontario Line is expected to cost $11 Billion. If Queen's Park were to invest that much, it would likely be the single biggest investment into municipal infrastructure in Canadian history. I really don't see that happening. Not with this government

 

[syn]

SUBWAYS SUBWAYS SUBWAYS?

FOLKS?

 

[jje1000]

Gut feeling: Policy wonks will be outraged, but the average public layperson won't care. "They're not using the city's plans? Well the city hadn't even gotten that much done!" They'll care whether or not this gets under construction by the next provincial elections though, IMO. The Ford Conservatives need at least one feather in its hat, lest they face a single term wipeout.

The plan definitely is not a deal breaker, but given those curves, I would not be surprised if this uses SkyTrain (ICTS) or Canada Line-type trains. Would also not be surprised if it goes PPP, or some dervivative of the scheme the REM is using, hammered into a form that fits into what Ontario politics can offer.

Bonus: Keeping Bombardier Thunder Bay open as well? I think we'll see how the chips fall going into the fall and winter.

Bonus 1: The alignment makes what Verster is stating regarding an above-ground Don crossing make sense- it didn't make sense in terms of the prior alignment.
Bonus 2: I think the Exhibition alignment (which many were predicting) solves issues of access from Liberty Village.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Gut feeling: Policy wonks will be outraged, but the average public layperson won't care. "They're not using the city's plans? Well the city hadn't even gotten that much done!" They'll care whether or not this gets under construction by the next provincial elections though, IMO. The Ford Conservatives need at least one feather in its hat, lest they face a single term wipeout.

Have you seen the PCs polling numbers in Toronto lately? They’re getting wiped out the city, and there’s nothing they can do to change that at this point. Agree with the rest of your statement though.

Bonus: Keeping Bombardier Thunder Bay open as well? I think we'll see how the chips fall going into the fall and winter.

Jobs will be lost at BBD regardless. Those jobs won’t be needed for this order for 5+ years.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

To the people that think this plan is acceptable: what do you expect the capacity of this line to be and how ridership do you anticipate? Do you believe the line should be extended north of Eglinton, and if so, can the line handle that demand?

 

[syn]

Gut feeling: Policy wonks will be outraged, but the average public layperson won't care. "They're not using the city's plans? Well the city hadn't even gotten that much done!" They'll care whether or not this gets under construction by the next provincial elections though, IMO. The Ford Conservatives need at least one feather in its hat, lest they face a single term wipeout.

The plan definitely is not a deal breaker, but given those curves, I would not be surprised if this uses SkyTrain (ICTS) or Canada Line-type trains. Would also not be surprised if it goes PPP, or some dervivative of the scheme the REM is using, hammered into a form that fits into what Ontario politics can offer.

Bonus: Keeping Bombardier Thunder Bay open as well? I think we'll see how the chips fall going into the fall and winter.

Bonus 2: I think the Exhibition alignment (which many were predicting) solves issues of access from Liberty Village.

No doubt about that. The average Torontonian doesn't pay much attention to transit plans and analyzing routes.

I do think this new plan brings it's own host of problems - it certainly doesn't improve the timeline.

 

[officedweller]

Crazy idea to reduce headways:

What if the terminal stations used a loop, rather than a crossover. ATO theoretically allows headways as little as 90 seconds, but in reality is impossible due to conflicting train movements at terminal stations. But a terminal loop would eliminate these conflicting movements. Could this be used to significantly lower headways?

If the crossover is beyond the terminus station, there is no conflict between incoming and outgoing trains.

 

[BurlOak]

What this routing does show is what a terrible job Jennifer Keesmat did while organizing this.
no consideration for northern extension.
no co federation for West extension.
no consideration for alternate routes that may be less expensive.
no consideration for alternate vehicles which may be better suited for this location.
I believe is was John Tory who took this planning away from the engineers at TTC and gave it to this planning department - so he can shoulder the blame as well.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

What this routing does show is what a terrible job Jennifer Keesmat did while organizing this.
no consideration for northern extension.
no co federation for West extension.
no consideration for alternate routes that may be less expensive.
no consideration for alternate vehicles which may be better suited for this location.

What? The Relief Line South wasn’t just designed with consideration for a northern extension, it was designed to be built concurrently with the northern extension. Heck, from their discussions I get the sense that they views the northern extension as the most impactful component.

 

[jje1000]

Have you seen the PCs polling numbers in Toronto lately? They’re getting wiped out the city, and there’s nothing they can do to change that at this point. Agree with the rest of your statement though.

I feel that while one single project won't save the Ford Conservatives, they need this + a raft of announcements throughout the second half of the term. The city might not vote for him, but two years down the line? Maybe the suburbs might come around to believe in a "tough love"-style government that "gets things done"?

The important thing to note is that polls are indicators of the current public mood, not predictors for future elections. These recent polls are telling the Ford Conservatives to stop cutting now.

Jobs will be lost at BBD regardless. Those jobs won’t be needed for this order for 5+ years.

Yeah, but this is Ford we're talking about- the numbers don't really matter, but the announcement matters. They say that even if some jobs were lost, the rest of the plant was saved.