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Moose Rail (National Capital Region)

I see this as the most recent and a continual example that the City wants to get shovels in the ground for Stage 2, and am thinking about the consequences for any proposal for the corridors by an entity other than the City of Ottawa (which has federal funding). As for the provincial funding, it appears that the Mayor and Council continue to urge the province to follow through. I assume any non-public sector entity wouldn't be lobbying behind the scenes to dissuade the province from doing that...

 
I see this as the most recent and a continual example that the City wants to get shovels in the ground for Stage 2, and am thinking about the consequences for any proposal for the corridors by an entity other than the City of Ottawa (which has federal funding). As for the provincial funding, it appears that the Mayor and Council continue to urge the province to follow through. I assume any non-public sector entity wouldn't be lobbying behind the scenes to dissuade the province from doing that...


With Stage 2 LRT I assume most of the MOOSE project is dead (not that it wasn't already).
 
^ I haven't compared the Stage 3 map with the Moose Plan. Did the Council motion this week have any language on Stage 3
 
With Stage 2 LRT I assume most of the MOOSE project is dead (not that it wasn't already).
You'd think so but just yesterday Mr. Potvin was posting on SSP about some conference he attended in the UK making MOOSE sound just as "alive" as ever...

No idea what he thinks MOOSE can do from this point onwards.. but I guess we'll see.

^ I haven't compared the Stage 3 map with the Moose Plan. Did the Council motion this week have any language on Stage 3
There was no mention today, but last week there was some talk about how the next stage of LRT will only happen if funded by upper levels of government (at least not until 2031 or 2048).
 
You'd think so but just yesterday Mr. Potvin was posting on SSP about some conference he attended in the UK making MOOSE sound just as "alive" as ever...

No idea what he thinks MOOSE can do from this point onwards.. but I guess we'll see.

There will barely be enough capacity on the line for the LRT vehicles, let for alone commuter trains (in a world where they even wanted to try that). Bringing that corridor up to a level that could support high frequency LRT service, or even low frequency LRT and commuter rail traffic, is going to cost a lot of money. For MOOSE to get off the ground it will need a Scrooge McDuck sized vault full of cash to cover the cost of all the infrastructure projects needed. That is a tough, tough barrier to overcome.....
 
There's been a strange (I guess..?) lack of any word from MOOSE on the approval of Stage 2 (which was a few weeks ago too) but apparently they're still alive.
From the MOOSE news page, they're in Detroit giving a presentation tomorrow.

It almost feels like they are trying to shop the concept around to other cities/regions. And that might not be a bad strategy for them. With all the lines that have been abandoned, or ripped up in the NCR, and the ever increasing cost of just getting the project off the ground, maybe trying out the concept someplace where the costs are lower is a better approach for them.
 
It almost feels like they are trying to shop the concept around to other cities/regions. And that might not be a bad strategy for them.


It's a concept though. You don't need Potvin and team to implement the ideas. Indeed, government agencies and authorities are the best placed to pull off what MOOSE is trying to do.

It's also a concept that's a bad idea for Ottawa, where suburbs are still somewhat affordable and will be substantially commutable by LRT after Stage 2. They need a city with high property prices, lots of abandoned or lightly used corridors and crap public transit. Not sure many of those there are, but if they exist, likely to be in the US.
 
It's a concept though. You don't need Potvin and team to implement the ideas. Indeed, government agencies and authorities are the best placed to pull off what MOOSE is trying to do.

It's also a concept that's a bad idea for Ottawa, where suburbs are still somewhat affordable and will be substantially commutable by LRT after Stage 2. They need a city with high property prices, lots of abandoned or lightly used corridors and crap public transit. Not sure many of those there are, but if they exist, likely to be in the US.

I am certainly not saying that I think the Moose plan (as it is today), is a good idea. It isn't. It is hugely flawed and though it may have made a small amount of sense when it was first proposed 7 years ago, that has long since faded away as the cost of the plan continue to escalate.

Also, it isn't that I think Moose will full scale lead a project in another city. But maybe they are trying to at least get some consulting credit for a similar project, to help attract investment (of any kind) in Moose.

While I have been a huge critic of Moose, I also think that any kind of new thinking about mass transit (be it commuter rail, or more urban oriented transit) is a great thing in the long run. Maybe Moose will fade away in time, but at least it is pushing discourse on the topic forward, and it might just spark someone else's creativity to come up with a new, and more efficient way to provide transit into the suburbs.
 
The three places that always stand out in my mind as appropriate for something like MOOSE toe are Buffalo / Niagara Falls, Detroit Michigan Central to Pontiac and the Fraser Valley... Places the rail corridor is appropriate, the demand exists and there is real potential for major property value increase in short time periods.
 
The three places that always stand out in my mind as appropriate for something like MOOSE toe are Buffalo / Niagara Falls, Detroit Michigan Central to Pontiac and the Fraser Valley... Places the rail corridor is appropriate, the demand exists and there is real potential for major property value increase in short time periods.

Within Canada the Fraser Valley is hands down the best opportunity. Though I haven't looked deeply enough into it to confirm this is the case, I do suspect that the biggest issue holding a concept like that back is rail capacity into, and within, Vancouver (I know freight capacity and bottlenecks are a continuing issue).

In the case of Ottawa, a portion of the Moose plan could, in theory, go forward if VIA HFR comes to fruition and the section of track from Smiths Falls - Ottawa - Casselman is double tracked, allowing for enough excess capacity that a commuter rail service could run without affecting VIA service. But existing communities along that line are small, and the growth potential is not that large, so the plan would have to offer something really special to potential homeowners to make moving to those communities attractive, and make the concept viable.

But even then, they would need to be able to start, and operate, the service at a ruthlessly bare bones cost in order to give it a fighting chance of lasting long enough to see the growth needed to make it profitable. Even if it can capitalize on a VIA HFR infrastructure upgrade, I don't see how that can be accomplished at this moment in time (versus the Fraser Valley where the economics for a start up rail service would be quite a bit different).
 
versus the Fraser Valley where the economics for a start up rail service would be quite a bit different

Frankly the lack of Fraser Valley service is really strange, and has been since the day Scott Road Skytrain opened. CP certainly isn't enthusiastic, but the government retains rights to run such a service (in fact refusing to abandon such very recently when CP asked during lease renewal). Remember that a service was briefly operated during Expo, and while records are limited it seems like it was successful enough that the government was uncomfortable allowing it to continue. Rail for the Valley is obnoxiously anti Skytrain, but I feel like theres something to his accusations that folks with a vested interest in Skytrain have been interfering with conventional rail proposals...
 
Frankly the lack of Fraser Valley service is really strange, and has been since the day Scott Road Skytrain opened. CP certainly isn't enthusiastic, but the government retains rights to run such a service (in fact refusing to abandon such very recently when CP asked during lease renewal). Remember that a service was briefly operated during Expo, and while records are limited it seems like it was successful enough that the government was uncomfortable allowing it to continue. Rail for the Valley is obnoxiously anti Skytrain, but I feel like theres something to his accusations that folks with a vested interest in Skytrain have been interfering with conventional rail proposals...

That is a good point about the preference for Skytrain technology above all others. I do take what I read on Rail for the Valley with a grain of salt as it often comes across as just cranky, nostalgic, railfan twaddle. I can understand why there might be frustration that conventional rail seems to be ignored. But, there are also reasons why this is the case. Skytrain has been built to go where the people are, where as the rail lines don't always do that. Similar to Ottawa and the C-Line, its adopted a semi-commuter rail system as a strategy to provide regional service, and its hard to knock that strategy as they have created a great system.

It also worth nothing though, and was something I was going to mention in my previous post, that freight traffic is still not only heavy on most of the lines in that region, but plays such a critical role in the economy there that it cant be jeopardized, and does present a very real, and understandable, barrier. There is only so much capacity that will be available to passenger service and in order for lines outside of, or at the fringes of, the metro area to be operated, they will need to make a large investment to create dedicated tracks within the city. That will not be cheap. .

Vancouver would probably do well to adopt the Toronto/GTA strategy and develop a comprehensive rail plan, and then break it down into dozens, if not hundreds, of smaller projects that are much easier to fund/fly under the radar. Once they can establish a core network, then it makes it easier for private companies, or perhaps even municipalities, to come in and provide service to places that are not of interest to TransLink. Of course before any of that gets started what they need is a plan that would actually be useful to commuters and regional travel and make the investments in the network worthwhile (something that people look at and say "that's brilliant" as opposed to "yep, those are some trains on a rail line".
 

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