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Income Polarization in Toronto - The Three Cities study

Here's some income maps for Toronto and other CMAs, based on 2012 taxfiler data

http://neighbourhoodchange.ca/documents/2015/12/maps-of-ct-incomes-eight-cmas-2012.pdf
It seems like there's been a rather significant increase in low income residents in Milliken in the last few years. That's also pointing towards a new pattern, where cookie cutter small lot SFHs are increasingly home to Toronto's low income population. Most of the census tracts that have fallen from low to very low income from 2005 to 2012 have relatively few apartment buildings if any, and consist mostly of houses and townhouses - in Milliken especially, but also in Malvern, plus a bit in Malton, Rexdale and Brampton. That's despite the fact that there are still a fair bit of census tracts in Scarborough, York, North York and Mississauga with a substantial number of older apartment buildings that are still low (rather than very low) income.

A few years ago, talk of suburbanization of poverty in Toronto mostly focussed on rising poverty in the 60s and 70s towers of Scarborough, North York and North Etobicoke, but the recent data seems to be suggesting it's now spreading to far flung tract homes? It's not something you hear much of in the news, and from all the talk of shortage of single family homes, you'd think the poverty would be increasingly segregated into apartments rather than spreading to suburban SFHs. Or is it possible that there are data quality issues or that the data is misleading? Although I've checked out many of these "very low income" SFH/townhouse neighbourhoods by bike, that's just about it, I've never talked to anyone from those areas.
 
How does overseas/foreign investment tie in with gentrification? I notice I hear about locals complaining that the gentrifiers are foreign investors in Vancouver and London (in the UK) and even in some Australian cities, yet not really so in Toronto, and hardly much at all in US cities where mostly the gentrifiers are suburbanites or out-of-towners.

Is there any pattern or trend as to what determines whether a city gentrifies from nearby suburbanites or residents of richer city neighbourhoods moving in, or from people farther afield moving in (from other states, provinces or overall other parts of the country), or even from foreign investors not of the country itself?
BTW, SE Oakville seems to be getting an increasingly high number of foreign investment. At least compared to 10-15 years ago. 10-15 years ago you did have a WASP component to foreign investment with people coming from Britain, Scandinavia, South Africa, the US, but not much from Asia. In the last few years there's been a lot more Asians, mainly Chinese.
 
It seems like there's been a rather significant increase in low income residents in Milliken in the last few years. That's also pointing towards a new pattern, where cookie cutter small lot SFHs are increasingly home to Toronto's low income population. Most of the census tracts that have fallen from low to very low income from 2005 to 2012 have relatively few apartment buildings if any, and consist mostly of houses and townhouses - in Milliken especially, but also in Malvern, plus a bit in Malton, Rexdale and Brampton. That's despite the fact that there are still a fair bit of census tracts in Scarborough, York, North York and Mississauga with a substantial number of older apartment buildings that are still low (rather than very low) income.

A few years ago, talk of suburbanization of poverty in Toronto mostly focussed on rising poverty in the 60s and 70s towers of Scarborough, North York and North Etobicoke, but the recent data seems to be suggesting it's now spreading to far flung tract homes? It's not something you hear much of in the news, and from all the talk of shortage of single family homes, you'd think the poverty would be increasingly segregated into apartments rather than spreading to suburban SFHs. Or is it possible that there are data quality issues or that the data is misleading? Although I've checked out many of these "very low income" SFH/townhouse neighbourhoods by bike, that's just about it, I've never talked to anyone from those areas.

Just confirmed this...

Screen%2BShot%2B2016-06-03%2Bat%2B6.50.03%2BPM.png

http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2016/06/is-torontos-suburban-poverty-shifting.html

So census tracts that fell below the very low income threshold in the 90s had 80.64% of units in apartment buildings of >2 units. That fell to 35.30% of units in apartment buildings of >2 units for the 28 census tracts that fell below the very low income threshold from 2005 to 2012. That's less than for the CMA as a whole (37.89%)! And most of those apartments were contained within a small minority of those 28 census tracts, many of those 28 census tracts had little to no apartments besides basement apartments (duplexes).
 
Still trying to nail down what's going on in the Milliken Area.

Here's a comparison of various stats between NW Toronto (York West, York-South Weston and Etobicoke North) which fit more closely with the traditional Toronto image of low income to working class areas, and North Scarborough (Scarborough North and Scarborough-Agincourt) and the CMA as a whole.


Incomes

Median Per Capita Income after tax
NW Toronto: $21,784
North Scarborough: $19,985
Toronto CMA: $27,390

Average Per Capita Income after tax
NW Toronto: $25,370
North Scarborough: $25,401
Toronto CMA: $36,464

% on Government Income (includes Unemployment, Old Age Benefits, CPP)
NW Toronto: 22.27%
North Scarborough: 18.30%
Toronto CMA: 10.50%

%in Low Income households
NW Toronto: 22.23%
North Scarborough: 20.15%
Toronto CMA: 14.90%

%Children in Low Income households
NW Toronto: 31.13%
North Scarborough: 26.70%
Toronto CMA: 18.30%

%Adults in Low Income households
NW Toronto: 21.03%
North Scarborough: 19.95%
Toronto CMA: 14.70%

%Seniors in Low Income households
NW Toronto: 13.39%
North Scarborough: 16.12%
Toronto CMA: 12.66%

%In lowest decile of Canadian income distribution
NW Toronto: 13.91%
North Scarborough: 13.25%
Toronto CMA: 10.01%

%In 2nd lowest decile of Canadian income distribution
NW Toronto: 15.98%
North Scarborough: 14.85%
Toronto CMA: 9.49%

%In 3rd lowest decile of Canadian income distribution
NW Toronto: 13.57%
North Scarborough: 13.16%
Toronto CMA: 9.04%

%In 4th lowest decile of Canadian income distribution
NW Toronto: 12.3o%
North Scarborough: 11.45%
Toronto CMA: 8.83%

%In 5th lowest decile of Canadian income distribution
NW Toronto: 11.05%
North Scarborough: 9.80%
Toronto CMA: 8.89%

%In top half of Canadian income distribution
NW Toronto: 33.19%
North Scarborough: 37.49%
Toronto CMA: 53.74%


So when you look at per capita income of individuals aged 15+, North Scarborough is actually slightly poorer, but that doesn't take into account how many children they need to take care of, and whether they live in large households that allow more efficient pooling of resources. Income deciles are based of an adjustment for family size, and %low income uses an adjustment for household size. North Scarborough residents are more likely to live in large households to pool resources.

Average Household Size
NW Toronto: 2.93
North Scarborough: 3.20
Toronto CMA: 2.77

North Scarborough's somewhat lower use of government income could also be tied to lower eligibility, but also a question of pride about not wanting to take government income.
 
Does larger households in North Scarborough lead to better outcomes for housing, or more crowding?

Avg # of rooms per home
NW Toronto: 5.20
North Scarborough: 5.75
Toronto CMA: 6.00

Avg # of people per room
NW Toronto: 0.56
North Scarborough: 0.56
Toronto CMA: 0.46

%Households crowded
NW Toronto: 21.72%
North Scarborough: 17.31%
Toronto CMA: 11.24%

%Households with more than 1 person per room
NW Toronto: 8.90%
North Scarborough: 9.19%
Toronto CMA: 4.82%

Crowding takes into account household composition, so a couple can share a bedroom, additional adults/couples need separate bedrooms, children should have separate bedrooms from the adults, and if the children are above a certain age and of opposite sex, they need separate bedrooms. So thanks to large homes, North Scarborough is able to be similarly to slightly less crowded than NW Toronto despite the larger households.

Other housing stats

% of housing requiring major repairs
NW Toronto: 9.25%
North Scarborough: 5.89%
Toronto CMA: 5.95%

% of households renting
NW Toronto: 48.40%
North Scarborough: 24.83%
Toronto CMA: 31.72%

% of households spending over 30% of income on housing
NW Toronto: 35.48%
North Scarborough: 35.48%
Toronto CMA: 31.85%

Perhaps the high homeownership rate means people are more likely to keep up their homes? Or maybe it's just because they're newer in North Scarborough and haven't needed as much maintenance yet? In any case, both areas spend a similarly high % of their income on housing (I wonder what it would be for transportation).
 
Labour related stats

Unemployment rate
NW Toronto: 11.80%
North Scarborough: 11.00%
Toronto CMA: 8.60%

Employment rate
NW Toronto: 53.00%
North Scarborough: 52.10%
Toronto CMA: 61.20%

% of Workers part-time
NW Toronto: 18.98%
North Scarborough: 19.48%
Toronto CMA: 18.31%

% with Sales and Services occupations
NW Toronto: 26.52%
North Scarborough: 26.64%
Toronto CMA: 22.26%

% with Trades, Transport, Manufacturing and Utilities occupations
NW Toronto: 28.12%
North Scarborough: 18.10%
Toronto CMA: 15.35%

Commuting stats

Average length of commute
NW Toronto: 30.4 min
North Scarborough: 30.5 min
Toronto CMA: 30.3 min

%Leaving for work before 7am
NW Toronto: 26.62%
North Scarborough: 17.70%
Toronto CMA: 20.81%


Factors that can influence employment prospects

% of adults 25-64 with a Bachelor's degree or higher
NW Toronto: 18.71%
North Scarborough: 30.37%
Toronto CMA: 36.78%

% of adults 25-64 with some sort of post-secondary degree/diploma
NW Toronto: 50.02%
North Scarborough: 59.84%
Toronto CMA: 68.51%

% of adults 25-64 with high school diploma
NW Toronto: 79.76%
North Scarborough: 84.70%
Toronto CMA: 90.14%

% of population that can speak English
NW Toronto: 93.70%
North Scarborough: 85.18%
Toronto CMA: 95.57%

So lack of education is more of an obstacle in NW Toronto while lack of English fluency is more of an obstacle in North Scarborough. Now if only I could find out what the % of the highest degree/diploma is foreign vs Canadian because that can be an issue as well.


Other demographic stats

% of families with children that are single parent
NW Toronto: 39.66%
North Scarborough: 27.74%
Toronto CMA: 25.57%

% of population 19 and under
NW Toronto: 26.44%
North Scarborough: 21.81%
Toronto CMA: 24.13%

% of population 65 and over
NW Toronto: 13.39%
North Scarborough: 16.12%
Toronto CMA: 12.66%
 
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TLDR:

Both North Scarborough and NW Toronto are poorer than average, in fact North Scarborough's incomes are even be slightly lower. However North Scarborough is able to cope with that because of fewer dependents, and larger homes and more often SFH which favours pooling of resources in large households and home ownership. Meanwhile, NW Toronto has more small apartments which favours smaller households and renting. Although North Scarborough housing is in better condition, it's unclear if larger homes leads to better outcomes in North Scarborough since housing costs as % of income and crowding are similar, but it does mean North Scarborough households are less likely to qualify as low income.

Employment/unemployment is similar, but NW Toronto residents are much more likely to be employed in trades and manufacturing, which is not surprising considering all the construction work in Brampton and Vaughan and all the industrial areas in NW Toronto and adjacent Peel/Vaughan. Lower education levels are more of an issue in NW Toronto while lack of english fluency is more of an issue in North Scarborough. North Scarborough is more likely to have difficulties with supporting elderly dependents, while in NW Toronto it's more about child dependents and single parent households.

Both areas have high proportions of immigrants and recent immigrants, although North Scarborough has slightly more, and dominantly from China, which could explain the lower rates of English fluency.
 
Factors that can influence employment prospects

% of population that can speak English
NW Toronto: 93.70%
North Scarborough: 85.18%
Toronto CMA: 95.57%

So lack of education is more of an obstacle in NW Toronto while lack of English fluency is more of an obstacle in North Scarborough.
English proficiency is one of the smartest requirements of Australia's immigration policy. IIRC, regardless of origin, Australia has a much higher successful rate of newcomer integration due to this one rule. They also have newly zero extended family reunification (unless the sponsee can pass the regular rules), so there's a lot fewer unproductive or difficult to integrate seniors or extended family members.
 
TLDR:
Both areas have high proportions of immigrants and recent immigrants, although North Scarborough has slightly more, and dominantly from China, which could explain the lower rates of English fluency.

Doesn't NW Toronto have many immigrant groups from former British colonies (Caribbean, South Asian countries), many of whom could speak English or at least had some prior education in it before immigrating, which might explain why the English-speaking proportion isn't that different from the CMA average. Then again, North Scarborough probably had immigration from Hong Kong, which was formerly a British colony too.

Is there any trend or sign of the number of recent immigrants in either of these two regions of Toronto leveling or plateauing as the immigration gateway moves towards the 905 area, or do they continue to be favoured first landing spots for newcomers?
 
Scarborough seems to have a lot of plazas with immigrant mom and pop stores, especially food shops and restaurants catering to local ethnic communities. I wonder if this shows up in the employment stats. I remember some people (I think it was on this site or maybe somewhere else) having maps showing Scarborough as the most self-contained part of Toronto in a sense since more people shop and make trips within the borough relative to outside it.
 
Doesn't NW Toronto have many immigrant groups from former British colonies (Caribbean, South Asian countries), many of whom could speak English or at least had some prior education in it before immigrating, which might explain why the English-speaking proportion isn't that different from the CMA average. Then again, North Scarborough probably had immigration from Hong Kong, which was formerly a British colony too.
That's what I would suspect. Although NW Toronto does have significant numbers of immigrants from Vietnam and Latin America, you also have many from Jamaica, Trinidad, India, Nigeria... Meanwhile North Scarborough is heavily Chinese immigration (though with some Sri Lankans and Filipinos, especially towards the south and east), and immigrants from mainland China outnumber those from Hong Kong by about 3.5 to 1 in this area. Did Hong Kong residents typically have English fluency as a result of being a former British colony? Or just English fluency at a higher rate than the mainland but still at a lower rate compared to other former colonies.
Is North Scarborough actually more "working class" than central Scarborough?
According to the stats, it's similar or more low income in North Scarborough, although a decade ago it would have been less low income to similar. North Scarborough seems to have slightly lower earnings among its adult population compared to Central Scarborough, such as a higher proportion of working poor and lower average incomes. When you attempt to adjust for larger household sizes, that erases much of the difference although it seems like North Scarborough is still very slightly worse off.
 
That's what I would suspect. Although NW Toronto does have significant numbers of immigrants from Vietnam and Latin America, you also have many from Jamaica, Trinidad, India, Nigeria... Meanwhile North Scarborough is heavily Chinese immigration (though with some Sri Lankans and Filipinos, especially towards the south and east), and immigrants from mainland China outnumber those from Hong Kong by about 3.5 to 1 in this area. Did Hong Kong residents typically have English fluency as a result of being a former British colony? Or just English fluency at a higher rate than the mainland but still at a lower rate compared to other former colonies.

No idea how accurate or comparable those listed sources in the article are (in many cases the knowledge of English could be only having learned it a few years in school the way many Anglos in Canada learn a little French, or overestimates based on self-rated perceptions), but according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_English-speaking_population, China has only 5% who know English and India 12%, while Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nigeria and Hong Kong are in the 40s and 50s % range of English speakers and Philipines in the 90s % (it was occupied and ruled by the US at one point after all).

West Indians who have been English-speaking for generations are native English speakers (with a local variant of English often being a creole but nonetheless no less a native tongue) while some of those other colonies might only have either English learning in school as a second language or cursory knowledge of it. But of course immigrants are not representative of the populace of the home country but often more educated.

So I would think you'd be right that Scarborough's higher Chinese population probably accounts for much of the trend. For some reason I'd had thought Hong Kongers made up most of the Chinese in Scarborough (maybe that's an outdated view based on what it was like in the 90s).

Also I notice that Asian Torontonians' socio-economic demographics differ compared to the stereotype south of the border. In the US, you hear about this thing where Asian Americans are assumed to be wealthy and get called a "model minority" but I don't think that's as much of a thing here. In US cities, you would not often have the "Asian" part of town be a poor area.
 
Is there any trend or sign of the number of recent immigrants in either of these two regions of Toronto leveling or plateauing as the immigration gateway moves towards the 905 area, or do they continue to be favoured first landing spots for newcomers?
In these stats, recent immigrant means in the last 5 years. So the fact that these areas have high proportions of recent immigrants means they are still part of the immigration gateway. However, it's true that many parts of the 905 are also part of the immigration gateway whereas in the past that was probably less the case. York South-Weston actually doesn't have that many recent immigrants at 7.1%.

Willowdale: 14.3%
Don Valley North: 12.6%
Mississauga Centre: 12.4%
York Centre: 12.3%
Don Valley East: 11.1%
York West: 10.8%
Etobicoke North: 10.6%
Scarborough-Agincourt: 10.5%
Mississauga East-Cooksville: 10.4%
Toronto Centre: 10.0%
Scarborough North: 9.9%
Mississauga-Malton: 9.8%
Scarborough-Guildwood: 9.7%
Brampton South: 9.7%
Scarborough Centre: 9.6%

York South-Weston and South and Central Scarborough have somewhat lower levels of immigration and I can see it remaining that way. If you look at income stats, decline in these areas does seem to have levelled off. Income declines between the 401 and Steeles haven't levelled off as much though, the Milliken area especially seems to have experienced a significant drop from 2006 to 2011/2012 (most recent stats). But there's also been rather big drops in many parts of the 905, so if you're assuming recent immigrants skew towards lower incomes, and prefer proximity to existing ethnic enclaves, and the formation of new enclaves to be facilitated by mass increases in housing, I'd expect the number of recent immigrants between the 401 and Steeles to remain high and possibly even increase a little, but I'd also expect many areas of the 905 to close the gap.
 
IIRC, regardless of origin, Australia has a much higher successful rate of newcomer integration due to this one rule.

By what measures does Australia do better with newcomer integration? Is it by income comparisons with the native born, where immigrants can rise up the income ladder more quickly than their Canadian counterparts or social/cultural/political integration into their society?

After all, we've had nothing like this happen in our city since the 20th century.
 
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