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It's official: the Yonge Subway Line is now operating at significantly above capacity, handling substantially more passengers than it can comfortably accommodate. According to Metrolinx’s recently published Yonge Relief Network Study (YRNS), the Yonge line is operating at minimum 11% over capacity south of Bloor during peak hours. For many of Toronto's rush hour commuters, this comes as no surprise, with trains too full to board a common sight in the mornings and afternoons. To everyone from politicians to transit planners to ordinary Torontonians, the problem has long been obvious; the extent of it, less so.
Now, however, the results of the YRNS clearly outline the scope of the situation, while projecting the efficacy of potential and ongoing solutions. The results are clear: even with currently ongoing efforts to mitigate congestion, the Yonge line will be running significantly above capacity. Furthermore, the YRNS also casts significant doubt regarding the benefits of SmartTrack/GO RER, with relatively insignificant ridership offset projected for the Yonge line from the planned regional rail system. The results of the study clearly demonstrate that current efforts to alleviate congestion will not ensure the long-term viability of the Yonge line.
Surprisingly to many, the Metrolinx study, beyond projecting that current relief efforts will prove insufficient, articulated the need for a new relief transit line—connecting Downtown to the Bloor-Danforth line and beyond to the Crosstown LRT and Sheppard subway—in order to ensure future efficiency of the Yonge subway. According to the study, an effective long-term congestion solution necessitates a comprehensive, large-scale addition to Toronto's transit landscape, in the form of a relief subway line.
The argument for a full-length relief line is informed by the YRNS projections, which extrapolates future ridership and capacity figures taking into account a variety of scenarios. Based on the data collected, three conclusions emerge:
1. Currently ongoing initiatives, including Automatic Train Control, the Spadina-University Line Extension, and GO RER electrification, will provide some measure of relief for the Yonge Line through capacity increase and offset of ridership. However, despite these initiatives ridership is expected to reach capacity once again within 15 years.
2. The proposed—and heavily marketed—SmartTrack (together with GO RER) would not significantly alleviate congestion on the Yonge Line, providing only a marginal ridership offset. In fact, SmartTrack would likely bear relatively little resemblance to the “surface subway” promised by John Tory during his Mayoral campaign. (More on that below).
3. A full-length relief line through Toronto’s east end presents the most effective long-term solution to congestion on the Yonge Line, while also serving the greatest number of Torontonians. None of the other studied alternatives including a shorter underground line or a surface LRT along the same route present the same benefits of long-term congestion relief for the Yonge Line.
Taking all these arguments into account together, it becomes clear that a new, full-length subway line from Downtown to Sheppard is the best long-term solution to alleviate congestion on Yonge, and to serve commuters across the city.
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What's Already Happening?
Understanding the Yonge line's congestion problems begins with looking at the challenges that face the network today. As it is, the line carries some 31,200 people per peak hour (pph), though it has a maximum capacity of only 28,000 (in the chart below). In simple terms, this means that there are more travelers (the line is 11% over capacity) on the Yonge subway than it is able to accommodate, with uncomfortable crowds, safety concerns, and long delays common for passengers. For many peak hour Yonge commuters, waiting for several trains to pass before they can board is not uncommon. The extent of the problem is such that TTC employees have needed to corral passengers onto trains in an attempt to maintain order. In economic terms, this costs the city millions in lost productivity, while potentially deterring new residents and investors.
What makes the problem even more pressing, however, is that current trends are seeing rapid increases in Downtown employment, with a greater proportion of Toronto's new jobs being created Downtown than ever before. Together with sharp increases in residential density along Yonge, this means that a significantly greater demand will be placed on the Yonge line in coming decades.
Considering the high rates of population growth along the Yonge corridor, combined with record rates of job creation Downtown, the Yonge line is projected to face a more than 20% increase in demand over the next 15 years alone (as shown below) if no relief strategies are implemented.
While Metrolinx's baseline projection for 2031 (see above) shows a sharp increase in ridership due to population and employment growth, the capacity of the line (blue line: 2021 Capacity) also shows a significant increase compared to 2015 numbers (represented by the dotted blue line), taking into account the congestion relief efforts currently underway. The gains in capacity will be achieved through a number of ongoing intiatives that Metrolinx and the TTC have already committed to in order to alleviate congestion on the Yonge line.
Capacity increases will be brought about primarily through the implementation of an Automatic Train Control System (ATC), set to roll out by 2021, which will decrease the space required between trains in the subway tunnels, allowing for greater frequency of service. In addition, the ongoing roll-out of the new Toronto Rocket trains (in service since 2011) is increasing capacity, as the new articulated trains can carry more passengers than previous models. Together, these efforts bring the expected 2021 peak capacity up to 36,000. However, while this is a significant improvement, the 37,800 peak hour riders projected in 2031 would quickly see the line operating above capacity once again.
The projection provided by the baseline chart, however, also does not take into account the ridership offsets and increases provided by new projects (as detailed above). The completion of the Toronto-York Spadina Subway extension (TYSSE, above) in 2017 would likely attract some uptown and suburban demand away from the Yonge line, while GO's Regional Express Rail and SmartTrack (RER, above) would also likely shift some passengers to the newly electrified line. Taking these developments into account, Metrolinx projects that these developments may see the Yonge Line operate at 89% capacity by 2031 (YRNS base case, above). However, the chart above also points to a significant increase in demand that would be created by the northward extension of the Yonge Line to Richmond Hill (Yonge North, above), meaning that, by 2031, the network would still operate at 96% capacity, even with all mitigating factors taken into account.
The reality illustrated by these charts is that even with substantial improvements to existing infrastructure, as well as transit expansion projects throughout the GTA, current initiatives are set to provide only temporary relief to the overburdened Yonge Line. In order to bring about a lasting solution, substantial new transit projects are necessary. The YRNS study provides projections for the benefits that potential solutions (an expanded GO RER network, an LRT, or a new Relief Subway) would provide, with a Relief Subway to Shepard standing out as the most effective.
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What About SmartTrack?
John Tory campaigned on the platform of a "surface subway" relief line to serve transit-deficient parts of the city and alleviate congestion on the Yonge line. As a central tenet of Tory's campaign, SmartTrack promised a relatively low-cost, surface solution to Toronto's pressing transit problems. Touting the project as a relief subway line, Tory's SmartTrack promised to significantly ameliorate congestion on the Yonge line, while providing subway service to some of Toronto's transit 'dark spots.' Although SmartTrack would run significantly further to the east than most relief line proposals, limiting its ability to divert passengers from the Yonge Line, the new service was expected to provide significant congestion relief. Together with the new Regional Express Rail (RER) GO service, SmartTrack was—and continues to be—touted as a cost-efficient way to fix Toronto's most pressing transit issues.
Unfortunately, the results of the Metrolinx study definitively show that this will not be the case, as only intermittent service is possible in the corridor, ultimately providing minimal relief to the Yonge line and little overall change to Toronto's transit landscape. This is reflected in the chart below, which projects that new Regional Express Rail and SmartTrack would divert only 4,200 riders pph from the Yonge line, in total. What happened? How does SmartTrack, which was touted as much-needed congestion relief during Tory's campaign, end up attracting only a small portion of riders per hour away from the Yonge line?
According to transit advocate Steve Munro, a significant part of the problem for the line is that "service in the SmartTrack corridor would be every 15 minutes," with SmartTrack trains sharing space on the corridor with RER trains. If we infer that trains on the corridor alternate predictably between SmartTrack and RER, this means that a SmartTrack train would arrive at each station every 30 minutes. This, unfortunately, does not constitute the "surface" subway" that Tory promised. Other than the fact that SmartTrack's stations would be more closely spaced than GO stops, there seems to be no difference between the two services.
According the Metrolinx CEO Bruce McCuaig, both SmartTrack and GO services would operate the same GO trains, with SmartTrack trains merely making more frequent stops. With these factors in mind, it is clear that SmartTrack will not be the "surface subway" relief line that Torontonians were promised, but rather an augmented GO service aimed at making regional rail a viable option for 416 commuters.
Despite these revelations, there are still significant ambiguities as to what SmartTrack will finally entail. We do not know whether it will in fact use TTC fares, how much it will cost to build, nor how it will serve the Eglinton West/Airport corridor. Perhaps most importantly, total ridership projections (expected later this month) are not yet available; we so far know only how many riders the GO RER network is likely relieve from the Yonge line. What significant benefits the line will bring to Toronto is not yet entirely clear. What is clear, however, is that SmartTrack will not present viable long-term relief to the Yonge line.
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Why a Relief Line to Sheppard?
With the Yonge Subway projected to once again operate near capacity by 2031, the need for a comprehensive solution is evident. Responding to this problem, Metrolinx's YRNS studied a range of potential solutions, including an enhanced GO RER network (including SmartTrack) and a range of new relief lines. A short relief subway line (currently under study by the City of Toronto) connecting Downtown to the Danforth was considered alongside an expanded line extending north to Sheppard.
Based on the YRNS projections, the construction of a new subway line would be vastly more effective than any enhancements to GO infrastructure, with a subway to Sheppard providing the greatest possible relief. Though the line would likely be completed in stages, the longer line's larger ridership will provide significant relief to the Yonge Subway.
In addition to the two east-end relief line options ("short" to Danforth and "long" to Sheppard), Metrolinx also studied a "U-shaped" relief subway line connecting to both Danforth in the east and Bloor in the west, as well as an LRT along roughly the same route as the relief subway to Sheppard. The results are spelled out in the chart below:
The "Relief Line Long" (to Sheppard) clearly posts the greatest ridership, while also presenting the most significant relief to the Yonge line. According to the projection, the new subway would serve almost as many passengers as the relieved Yonge line itself, evidencing very strong demand. By comparison, an LRT along the same route would—despite its lower cost—serve roughly a third of the subway's passengers, showing that there is easily enough demand for a subway.
While it is not always worthwhile to build subways instead of LRTs (with the Scarborough subway extension serving as a strong example), the extremely strong demand present means that an LRT would be insufficient in meeting the city's transit needs in that area. Meanwhile, the almost equally expensive "Relief Line U" subway would not provide any measure of relief to the Yonge line, showing that the most immediate demand for a subway exists in the east end.
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The results of the Yonge Relief Network Study make it clear that long-term solutions are necessary in order to ensure the Yonge subway's future, and provide effective, practical transit options to Torontonians. As lifestyles in the city continue to change, and the population continues to swell, the more car-oriented Toronto of the 20th century is becoming another city. This is not the Toronto of the mid-to-late 20th century, and thus our vision for future transit should not stop at improving the infrastructure that was already in place in 1970. Decisive action must be taken in the short term, even if the capital costs are high.
Based on the Metrolinx projections, UrbanToronto strongly believes that a new subway line east of Yonge presents the best long-term solution to congestion on the Yonge Line, providing transit directly to where demand is greatest. Furthermore, the Metrolinx study strongly indicates that, in order for the new line to serve the greatest number of Torontonians—and bring long-term relief to the Yonge Subway—it must connect downtown to the Bloor-Danforth, the Crosstown LRT, and the Sheppard lines. For these reasons, we believe that the construction of a relief subway line to Sheppard should be made a top transit priority for transit planning in Toronto.
While some might paint the billions of dollars that would need to be spent on a new subway as an excessive expense, these arguments fail to take into account the opportunity cost of not doing so. Yes, the Sheppard-Downtown relief line would cost almost $8 billion, but what are the long-term costs of losing productivity to congestion, and of a Yonge subway line that becomes unusable during peak hours? What are the costs of losing the development and investment that a new subway line would bring, the jobs it would create, and, ultimately, the better and more livable city it would help build?
