Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

[rbt]

I bet Rob Ford's $4.2 billion 7-stop Sheppard subway extension to Scarborough Centre is looking mighty good in hindsight compared to the $4.2 billion 1-stop Bloor-Danforth subway extension to Scarborough Centre right about now.

I would assume that $4.2B (2011) Sheppard extension pricing was as accurate as the SCC extension pricing. That 1 stop SCC extension started out as 2 stops for $1.2B in 2006.

I can't remember if the $4.2B price tag came from TTC engineers or Ford's dentist consultant whose name I forget.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Sheppard subway east, will go though 3 federal riding, 3 provincial riding, and 5 Toronto wards, that should be 11 politicians fighting tooth and nail to get it built. Not sure what's happening though.

Although one thing it won't happen is for it to end at Victoria Park. Imagine building a subway in north York that ends at the Scarbrough boarder.

I bet Rob Ford's $4.2 billion 7-stop Sheppard subway extension to Scarborough Centre is looking mighty good in hindsight compared to the $4.2 billion 1-stop Bloor-Danforth subway extension to Scarborough Centre right about now.

Sheppard subway would cost more than $4.2 billion in today's dollars, while carrying less riders than the Bloor-Danforth extension.

If one subway line must be extended into Scarborough, then the Bloor-Danforth extension makes most sense.

I would assume that $4.2B (2011) Sheppard extension pricing was as accurate as the SCC extension pricing. That 1 stop SCC extension started out as 2 stops for $1.2B in 2006.

I can't remember if the $4.2B price tag came from TTC engineers or Ford's dentist consultant whose name I forget.

Yeah, well like Hopkins said, we're going to get that same subway, and it will be at 5.5 billion now. Ridership doesn't matter anymore.

 

[rbt]

Yeah, well like Hopkins said, we're going to get that same subway, and it will be at 5.5 billion now. Ridership doesn't matter anymore.

I don't believe that earlier estimate was accurate. If you're applying an inflation increase to $4.2B to get $5.5B, then you may need to go quite a bit higher than that. I expect a price escalation once actual design gets underway.

Whether it's worth the price or not is, as you say, for others to decide. Miller certainly thought it was worth building at the start of his first term (it was in the top-priority list by TTC management at the time). Sheppard subway east was the first project he went to bat for but McGuinty gave him funding for Spadina instead.

IMO, with such under-use of our railway corridors (every track through Union can hit 3 minute frequencies today if we used them well), I'm not even sure the DRL is worth the maintenance costs that quite literally strangle the city budget. Seriously, half the cities debt is TTC SOGR.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I don't believe that earlier estimate was accurate. If you're applying an inflation increase to $4.2B to get $5.5B, then you may need to go quite a bit higher than that. I expect a price escalation once actual design gets underway.

Whether it's worth the price or not is, as you say, for others to decide. Miller certainly thought it was worth building at the start of his first term (it was in the top-priority list by TTC management at the time). Sheppard subway east was the first project he went to bat for but McGuinty gave him funding for Spadina instead.

IMO, with such under-use of our railway corridors (every track through Union can hit 3 minute frequencies today if we used them well), I'm not even sure the DRL is worth the maintenance costs that quite literally strangle the city budget. Seriously, half the cities debt is TTC SOGR.

I believe that about the city debt 100 percent, and it's probably worse. I bet its close to 6.3 billion or so. But we have backed ourselves into a corner, we have no choice now.

 

[Palma]

If the Sheppard LRT money is sacrificed for the SSE and Eglinton East LRT (or worse, just the SSE), then the cynicism demonstrated by some politicians will astound me. They would rather give their constituents on Sheppard absolutely nothing - nothing at all - than have an LRT *already operating*, and with no prospect of anything better in their lifetimes.

because this way they can keep their chances of re-election by always pushing for subways. Like Mammoliti trying to get a subway along Finch in the west. He must have been smart enough (?) to known it was never going to happen, Yet he fought the LRT even going as far to say "we will give that money earmarked for the Finch LRT to the Scarborough subway" and that Finch will wait for a subway even if it takes 30 years. How can a resident living in that ward accept such a statement from the councillor that is suppose to be representing their in interests? Politicians use it for their own self-interests to get re-elected. Unless a resident is informed to actually understand where subways will and should go politicians can keep making them believe they can all get subways. Of course having the Spadina extension does not help the premise that subways should only go where warranted

 

[Palma]

Whether it's worth the price or not is, as you say, for others to decide. Miller certainly thought it was worth building at the start of his first term (it was in the top-priority list by TTC management at the time). Sheppard subway east was the first project he went to bat for but McGuinty gave him funding for Spadina instead.
.

Miller should have said NO and thats it especially because it will be operated at a great loss. NO is the word he should have shouted

 

[Palma]

What you should have done is walk to University and get on at St Patrick station.

and again that adds time and having to go outside cause trying to get around the path takes even more time than just going outside and walking the straight line. And you are missing the point of the discussion

 

[TransitBart]

Miller should have said NO and thats it especially because it will be operated at a great loss. NO is the word he should have shouted

Why is it such a certainty that it will be operated at a great loss? The opinion is not that uncommon, but human behaviour is very variable and I am very sceptical of people who speak in "absolutes". Especially around human behaviour.

If the builders of New York's subway had behaved similarly, then the subway would never have connected Manhattan to Queen's or Brookyn. My goodness, it crosses a line!

The issue with the Sheppard subway is not that it was built or that it is a subway vs LRT. The main issue is that we built a "stubway" which does not connect the northern reaches of Scarborough to at least the new Downsview Park station. There is after all a 16 to 24 lane ribbon of pavement running along the entire length of the top of the city. The fact that no one's model says that there is a need for a significant third crosstown rapid transit line north of line 2 and 5 makes me question the model.

Yes, the 401 is a significant inter regional link. But it is also used for local trips by residents of the northern Toronto geography. I can point to four in my office who all come from neighbourhoods in northern Scarborough to Don Mills. By car of course. Who would take three interconnecting bus trips?

Personally, don't believe that LRT on this route has the capacity to displace anywhere near the number of car trips that might be required to make transit truly a first choice in Toronto. Building an LRT surface route is like building to fail in the first place. Again, there needs to be vision and leadership. If we are serious about getting people out of cars, only a subway has the capacity to handle that kind of volume. If climate change, green plans and built in obsolescence are not issues, go ahead, build light rail.

The new terminal 1 at Pearson looked gigantic at first in 2005. No one thinks that today and there is a need to build an additional pier.

By the time, there is a climate change plan in place that changes the price of fuel - and whether we like it or not, it's coming. We will need to divert millions of additional daily trips from car to transit.

Don't believe me? Look at your Hydro bills in this province and ask yourselves how that has changed your behaviour as prices have doubled in the past decade of mismanagement and green subsidies.

 

[rbt]

Why is it such a certainty that it will be operated at a great loss?

Straight forward. The other subway lines also run at a loss, and it's so high that the TTC refuses to even tell us the number. They've given bus (operating + capital versus revenue), and tram numbers over the years but never done it by subway line. Part of the reason the TTC has a high farebox recovery rate is that they've shuffled a huge chunk of what would normally be operating expenses into capital under the flag of SOGR; the bulk of these creating accounting pieces are subway related (escalator maintenance packages for example).

Funny things happen when you start adding together Operating + Non-Expansion Capital of transit agencies (I've only done Montreal by hand, several years ago) but suddenly the total subsidy required started seeming pretty similar.


Yonge line carries 156Million customers per year (roughly) for some fraction of a $2 fare (average fare). The capital maintenance program for Yonge line is around $150Million per year; or $1 of that $2 typical fare. I've not considered any actual operating expenses for Yonge line or the fact that most customers arrive by bus. I'd be gob-smacked if Yonge ran at a profit from the fare-box.

The City and Province do run a profit on the Yonge line, but it's due to income, sales, and property tax raised rather than revenue from the farebox. I'm not at all sure how Sheppard East increases tax revenues in any of those categories by tens of millions per year.

Whether it should be built or not has little to do with monetary reasons though. While the public likes to complain about taxes, they absolutely hate thinking about future tax levels when making infrastructure decisions; Gardiner being a recent example.

 

[TransitBart]

Straight forward. The other subway lines also run at a loss, and it's so high that the TTC refuses to even tell us the number. They've given bus (operating + capital versus revenue), and tram numbers over the years but never done it by subway line. Part of the reason the TTC has a high farebox recovery rate is that they've shuffled a huge chunk of what would normally be operating expenses into capital under the flag of SOGR; the bulk of these creating accounting pieces are subway related (escalator maintenance packages for example).

Funny things happen when you start adding together Operating + Non-Expansion Capital of transit agencies (I've only done Chicago and Montreal by hand, several years ago) and suddenly the subsidy required looks oddly similar.


Yonge line carries 156Million customers per year (roughly) for some fraction of a $2 fare (average fare). The capital maintenance program for Yonge line is around $150Million per year; or $1 of that $2 typical fare. I've not considered any operating expenses for Yonge line or the fact that most customers arrive by bus. I'd be gob-smacked if Yonge ran at a profit.

Cute arithmetic, but the principle of a first class stamp is that whether to the next block or to Vancouver, it's all the same rate.

The argument above falls under the "suck and blow at the same time" heading.

Almost no one is in favour of fare by distance for trips within TTC land / 416 / short.

We pay one fare whether it's a block on the bus, three blocks on the street car or across town on the subway and then bus, etc.

How is the arithmetic relevant? By this model, we'd just close down everything unprofitable and let private operators charge what they could on routes that made a profit. If we never get there - on a bus, in low overhead mixed ROW - so be it. At least the operator made a profit.

Isn't the model we want, the first class stamp?

PS: do public transit agencies "pay" for usage of roads in some manner?

 

[rbt]

How is the arithmetic relevant?

Huh? I backed up your argument with evidence that fare-box profit is irrelevant in today's TTC; it can't possibly be relevant in new additions if the best bits are running with a subsidy. Where did I lose you? I ask because it wasn't as direct as I anticipated.

Short Version: The profit to the government, like our roadways, comes from property tax, income tax, and sales tax; not user fees like tolls or fares. If we, as a forum, want to look for profitable transit (new or existing) it needs to include some kind of economic output measure because the fare-box alone doesn't do it anywhere in Ontario.

 

[smallspy]

If you want an actual number....

The TTC says that on average, each route-kilometer of subway tunnel costs $7mil to maintain per year. That is for the tunnel structure, 2000 meters of track, lighting, signals, life safety, etc. While I think its fair to assume that the Sheppard Line, by virtue of its age (or lack thereof) will cost less than that figure, it's still a lot of money each year.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Somewhere I have a document outlining the operational/maintenance cost of our subways. The costs, relative to fare revenue, actually aren't that expensive. I recall that Sheppard Line trips are actually profitable when that line is the only component of the trip. However, not that this did not include billions in subway-related budgeted spending, including most capital expenditures (elevators, trainsets, etc...)

 

[rbt]

Somewhere I have a document outlining the operational/maintenance cost of our subways.

Subways are very cheap for day-to-day operations. They're very heavy capital wise.

Bus service is the exact opposite. Very cheap for capital but comparatively expensive for day-to-day operations. The time to switch from one to the other is when the fixed-costs of the capital are outweighed by the savings for operations. Trams are somewhere between the 2 depending on the exact built form.

 

[Cobra]

Just putting it out there. The Sheppard subway is an incomplete line build in the middle of nowhere outperforming some of Chicago's lines with over twice the length and all going downtown.

Sheppard might not be the Yonge line but a full Downsview to STC line wouldnt the epic fail everyone think it would be.

Sheppard East corridor density is growing to the point that when I go on my condo terrace, I can tell where all the Sheppard stations are by looking north.

Downsview area is due to a massive redevelopment project which will add more potential TTC users....or a 2028 Olympic bid making the western extension a no Brainer.

What about Sheppard and the 400 to take some of those cars off our roads? Underground parking + station so drivers can use the Spadina a subway?

Great cities were built this way. If every subway extension were based on the TTC ridership model, London, NYC, Paris wouldn't have a fraction of those subway extensions and stations.

I get the scarcity of available funds but we have a federal government willing to pick up 50% of the tab of any transit infrastructure projects that are shovel ready, giving much needed relief to both municipal and provincial entities. BTW, those 2 entities are having the "adult" talk that transit isn't free and revenue tools are around the corner.

Let's make Toronto great and world class. I was in London and the notion that going to one part of town to the other taking forever is utterly unacceptable. It's utterly shameful that Scarborough and nothern Etobicoke have horrendous travel time to reach their work place. That's not world class.

Let's just build the DRL Long, complete Eglinton east and West then Sheppard once and for all.

LRT on the waterfront, Jane, Islington, Lawrence West, Wilson/York Mills, Dufferin and Steeles.