Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Cost per a new rider is not a very useful measure, as it ignores the benefits for the existing riders.

Counting all riders:
- The cost is $3.4 billion
- 7,300 riders per hour per peak direction
- 7,300 times 3 = 22,000 per 3 morning peak hours
- 22,000 times 2 = 44,000 daily riders per direction
- We will not multiply 44,000 by 2 (opposite direction in the evening), as those are mostly same commuters

Cost per daily rider (existing or new): 3.4B / 44,000 = $77,300. Not bad, given that the infractrusture will work for many decades.

Comparing that to Sheppard East LRT (liked by most of the SSE opponents):
- The cost is $1.2 billion
- 3,000 riders per hour per peak direction
- 3,000 times 3 = 9,000 per 3 morning peak hours
- 9,000 times 2 = 18,000 daily riders, arriving at Don Mills
- We have to take into account that SELRT is a long route; some riders will disembark before reaching Don Mills. I think that 1.5 is a reasonable multiplier to account for those riders.
- Thus, 18,000 times 1.5 = 27,000 daily riders per direction

Cost per daily rider (existing or new): 1.2B / 27,000 = $44,400. Less than for SSE, but not that much different. Plus, the time saved by the average rider due to SELRT will be smaller than the time saved due to SSE.

This is politicking. These now way this will have enough riders, even with the new developments.

 

[Rainforest]

This is politicking. These now way this will have enough riders, even with the new developments.

I responded to a specific number given by another poster.

 

[Rainforest]

Meanwhile, the Brimley option has two solid advantages. It would be cheaper, and it would permit a cheaper Lawrence East station (no need to go as deep) if one was added.

Maybe, we see a kind of a gambit? The Council will "revolt" against the McCowan option, and vote for the Brimley route instead, to show the voters that they care about their money ...

 

[crs1026]

Deja moo...

- Paul

 

[TOareaFan]

Cost per a new rider is not a very useful measure, as it ignores the benefits for the existing riders.

Isn't the value of measuring the cost per new rider ....a) new riders mean new revenue....so you are calculating the cost of the new revenue or, alternatively, how much subsidy you are providing to achieve the new ridership.....b) if one of the goals of building transit is to get riders out of other less beneficial methods of commuting (ie the car) the cost per new rider is a proxy for how efficiently the proposed project does that?

Counting all riders:

Cost per daily rider (existing or new): 3.4B / 44,000 = $77,300. Not bad, given that the infractrusture will work for many decades.

Comparing that to Sheppard East LRT (liked by most of the SSE opponents):


Cost per daily rider (existing or new): 1.2B / 27,000 = $44,400. Less than for SSE, but not that much different. Plus, the time saved by the average rider due to SELRT will be smaller than the time saved due to SSE.

Isn't $77,300 equal to 175% of $44,400? Is that "not that much"?

 

[Rainforest]

Isn't the value of measuring the cost per new rider ....a) new riders mean new revenue....so you are calculating the cost of the new revenue or, alternatively, how much subsidy you are providing to achieve the new ridership.....b) if one of the goals of building transit is to get riders out of other less beneficial methods of commuting (ie the car) the cost per new rider is a proxy for how efficiently the proposed project does that?

OK, new riders matter. But existing riders should not be discounted, either. They support the transit system, both via the fares and indirectly via subsidies that are paid for by their taxes.

Imagine a business, say a grocery store, that only cares about getting new customers and does not try to keep the existing customers happy. That business model would not be sustainable.

Isn't $77,300 equal to 175% of $44,400? Is that "not that much"?

The time saved by the average rider will be greater, too.

SSE: 10 minutes faster that SRT, plus 5 to 10 min saved due to the avoided transfer at Kennedy.

SELRT: 8-10 min in total for the average rider who does not travel end-to-end.

 

[nfitz]

SSE: 10 minutes faster that SRT, plus 5 to 10 min saved due to the avoided transfer at Kennedy.

10 minutes faster than SRT?

That's going to be quite the challenge, given the TTC-published travel time from Kennedy to Scarborough Centre is only 9 minutes.

I guess they'll be using some kind of wormhole then - no wonder it's getting pricey.

 

[TOareaFan]

OK, new riders matter. But existing riders should not be discounted, either. They support the transit system, both via the fares and indirectly via subsidies that are paid for by their taxes.

No one is discounting exisiting riders....I am just disputing your claim that cost per new rider is not a useful measure.

Imagine a business, say a grocery store, that only cares about getting new customers and does not try to keep the existing customers happy. That business model would not be sustainable.

that is not even remotely close to what measuring cost per new rider does.

The time saved by the average rider will be greater, too.

SSE: 10 minutes faster that SRT, plus 5 to 10 min saved due to the avoided transfer at Kennedy.

SELRT: 8-10 min in total for the average rider who does not travel end-to-end.

Moving the discussion does not answer my question....you said the difference in cost per rider (new and existing) was not much different between the two options....I just asked if, in your mind, 175% was "not that much"....is it? It seems to me it is nearly double.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I responded to a specific number given by another poster.

Fair enough but I don't see how the numbers work at all.

I'd rather turn eglinton into a full subway and extend it, that would actually justify the ridership.

 

[44 North]

Cost per a new rider is not a very useful measure, as it ignores the benefits for the existing riders.

Counting all riders:
- The cost is $3.4 billion
- 7,300 riders per hour per peak direction
- 7,300 times 3 = 22,000 per 3 morning peak hours
- 22,000 times 2 = 44,000 daily riders per direction
- We will not multiply 44,000 by 2 (opposite direction in the evening), as those are mostly same commuters

Cost per daily rider (existing or new): 3.4B / 44,000 = $77,300. Not bad, given that the infractrusture will work for many decades.

Is that math right? I thought peak hour gives half the peak period (as a very general rule of thumb). So if the peak hour is 7.3k, the 3h peak period would be like 14.6k. And it's also not likely that same number would be traveling in the opposite direction during that period. Was under the impression SLRT was to have ~100k daily avg, and SSE slightly more.

Are there actual avg daily ridership numbers in any of the recent reports? Or has this become too difficult with RER, ST, and fare integration? How exactly would we create a fair model if we don't know how GO and TTC will be integrated in the future, or what kind of service "RER" will be?

Deja moo...

Very interesting point in history, and where we sort of veered away from a radial system to a point-to-point. I think all logic and data would've pointed toward the U being the best bet, but I guess people wanted to open a new/better downtown at Yonge-Bloor. Naturally a superior option would've been both.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

What has changed since the Vaughan subway to make these extensions so pricey?

 

[44 North]

What has changed since the Vaughan subway to make these extensions so pricey?

That's what I'd be interested to see. If one station over 6km works out to over $500M/km, then what the hell will YNSE or RL work out to be, >$1.5bn/km?!? Best breakdown I've seen is a chart from the Value Engineering report linked a few pages back:

 

[salsa]

Oliver Moore‏ @moore_oliver
"based on less than 5 percent design, [price-tag] is considered to be a Class 4 estimate...with an accuracy of -30 percent to +50 percent."

So according to this, price for Scarb project likely to fall somewhere between $2.34B and $5.02B. Perhaps we should start a betting pool

One-stop subway cost estimates so far: $2B > $2.9B > $3.16 > $3.2B > $3.35B

In 2012: 3-stop subway "only $500million more than light rail!"

 

[salsa]

Cost per a new rider is not a very useful measure, as it ignores the benefits for the existing riders.

Then how about cost per minute of travel time saved for existing riders? If we're replacing a light rail line with a high capacity subway, there should have been lots of new riders. But turns out there isn't, therefore lets only talk about how existing riders will "benefit". Yeah, about that:

This subway does not expand rapid transit coverage in Scarborough. It merely replaces an existing transit line with a single subway station. Anyone who takes a bus to STC, will still be taking the exact same bus to STC. Instead of having a transfer at Kennedy, now you get to walk down a bunch of stairs to what will be the deepest subway station in Toronto, linked by an extremely long non-stop tunnel that 50% of subway service will not even use. We are about to spend $billions on something that will maybe save ~3 to 5 minutes for some of those existing riders, while adding lots of commute time to the Lawrence bus people who are at the mercy of whatever the hell SmartTrack will end up being, and the college students & various neighbourhoods that are losing rapid transit stops that they were previously promised. Sounds like a great return of investment.

Hey, if you want to discuss something that would really benefit existing riders, that would be the Eglinton East LRT. But whoops there is no more money left for that. This is what we call "opportunity cost".

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I would love to see the expected change in trip times for current users of the Scarborough RT, compared to the Scarborough LRT and Scarborough Subway Extension proposals. Given the following, the subway might very well be slower on average than the LRT (with its forced transfer) might have been.

• Scarborough Centre Station will be the deepest on the network, adding minutes of walking time (the LRT transfer would've been straight across a single platform)
• Headways on the SSE will be 50% of the rest of Line 2
• Commuters who used Lawrence East, Ellesmere, McCowan stations will have significantly longer trip times