Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[OneCity]

I'll believe it when I see it.

Ya Patrick Brown could be the wild card as the Province would still need to pony up. Although given its high level of support I think it would be a "fairly" cheap transit vote buying exercise for any Premier.

And whoever here said the Sheppard East LRT funds will be allocated to the SSE subway extension to Sheppard is likely on to what has been in the works since it got delayed. Will be an Election promise from both sides. Almost guaranteed.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

There is only a finite amount of funding available for Toronto from the federal government's infrastructure program. Without new money, whatever funds get diverted to Scarborough will not be available for other critical projects. This was not part of the plan when council endorsed the one stop subway just a year ago.

Any word on what the funding limit is?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Ya Patrick Brown could be the wild card as the Province would still need to pony up. Although given its high level of support I think it would be a "fairly" cheap transit vote buying exercise for any Premier.

Whoever here said the Sheppard East LRT funds will be allocated to the SSE subway extension to Sheppard is likely on to what has been in the works since it got delayed. Will be an Election promise from both sides. Almost guaranteed.

I was thinking last week that we'll probably see SELRT downgraded to BRT, and the remaining SELRT funds redirected to Crosstown East. Federal contributions would make up the remainder. Would be a good plan in my opinion

 

[OneCity]

I was thinking last week that we'll probably see SELRT downgraded to BRT, and the remaining SELRT funds redirected to Crosstown East. Federal contributions would make up the remainder. Would be a good plan in my opinion

Ive thought similar, but wont happen based on the Political optics in what they are trying to achieve.

Politicians are setting the stage for the Sheppard subway full and you'll see the SSE Sheppard commitment this election from both sides. It will be hard optically for Politicians to take Sheppard's funds, "downgrade" them to BRT and use it elsewhere. That wont happen as most of North Scarborough wants subway to Agincourt and BRT would just be an added cost while waiting for the inevitable, similar to what the RT was. The Eglinton extension will be a new commitment if and when it proceeds.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Ive thought similar, but wont happen based on the Political optics in what they are trying to achieve.

Politicians are setting the stage for the Sheppard subway full and you'll see the SSE Sheppard commitment this election from both sides. It will be hard optically for Politicians to take Sheppard's funds, downgrade them to BRT and use it elsewhere. Wont happen. As most of Sheppard wants subway to Agincourt. The Eglinton extension will be a new commitment if it proceeds.

If I remember correctly, the motion that was voted on this summer to study the Sheppard Subway Extension stipulates that the extension would not begin until 2031. City Planning is working on finalizing their transit network plan, which included "Sheppard Rapid Transit". They're surely not going to recommend a subway extension, so expect a recommendation for either LRT or BRT (I suspect the latter)

It doesn't seem to me that anyone is setting the stage for a Sheppard extension at City Hall.

 

[OneCity]

If I remember correctly, the motion that was voted on this summer to study the Sheppard Subway Extension stipulates that the extension would not begin until 2031. City Planning is working on finalizing their transit network plan, which included "Sheppard Rapid Transit". They're surely not going to recommend a subway extension, so expect a recommendation for either LRT or BRT (I suspect the latter)

It doesn't seem to me that anyone is setting the stage for a Sheppard extension at City Hall.

That would be nice.

I disagree though they are not planning it at City Hall. City Planning can do whatever they decide but come Election time Ford and Tory, Wynne and Brown will be in SSE extension mode, Tory has likely already planned for what Ford will be trotting out and recently the likes of Glenn D has come out in support for the Sheppard subway extension. Most Scarborough resident would be in approval of this upgrade. Id be more shocked if it wasn't promised.

The Provincial Liberals have been involved in this subway discussion since it reverted and they delayed the SELRT for internal reasons. Brown will adopt the Ford platform for Toronto. DRL or not many Downtown voters already have their minds made up Provincially as many just refuse to vote Conservative no matter what. So he'll likely take full advantage of the extra votes to be gained by supporting this extension & he's already on board with the SSE. Im not confident on his Eglinton East stance. That could go either way.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I'll believe it when I see it.

Ya Patrick Brown could be the wild card as the Province would still need to pony up. Although given its high level of support I think it would be a "fairly" cheap transit vote buying exercise for any Premier.

And whoever here said the Sheppard East LRT funds will be allocated to the SSE subway extension to Sheppard is likely on to what has been in the works since it got delayed. Will be an Election promise from both sides. Almost guaranteed.

Any word on what the funding limit is?

Should not be hard to go 50/50 Fed provinces on this project. 1.8 billion is not a lot compared to some of the other projects.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Ive thought similar, but wont happen based on the Political optics in what they are trying to achieve.

Politicians are setting the stage for the Sheppard subway full and you'll see the SSE Sheppard commitment this election from both sides. It will be hard optically for Politicians to take Sheppard's funds, "downgrade" them to BRT and use it elsewhere. That wont happen as most of North Scarborough wants subway to Agincourt and BRT would just be an added cost while waiting for the inevitable, similar to what the RT was. The Eglinton extension will be a new commitment if and when it proceeds.

If I remember correctly, the motion that was voted on this summer to study the Sheppard Subway Extension stipulates that the extension would not begin until 2031. City Planning is working on finalizing their transit network plan, which included "Sheppard Rapid Transit". They're surely not going to recommend a subway extension, so expect a recommendation for either LRT or BRT (I suspect the latter)

It doesn't seem to me that anyone is setting the stage for a Sheppard extension at City Hall.

That would be nice.

I disagree though they are not planning it at City Hall. City Planning can do whatever they decide but come Election time Ford and Tory, Wynne and Brown will be in SSE extension mode, Tory has likely already planned for what Ford will be trotting out and recently the likes of Glenn D has come out in support for the Sheppard subway extension. Most Scarborough resident would be in approval of this upgrade. Id be more shocked if it wasn't promised.

The Provincial Liberals have been involved in this subway discussion since it reverted and they delayed the SELRT for internal reasons. Brown will adopt the Ford platform for Toronto. DRL or not many Downtown voters already have their minds made up Provincially as many just refuse to vote Conservative no matter what. So he'll likely take full advantage of the extra votes to be gained by supporting this extension & he's already on board with the SSE. Im not confident on his Eglinton East stance. That could go either way.

They'll rush the Sheppard East subway. Duguid and company at Queens Park, and Karygiannis, DeBaeremaker, etc at the council. The support is there, they're just waiting for the right moment to pass.

 

[sixrings]

Scarborough has become the quebec of our city politics. It apparently expects everything or threatens to vote the opposite. BTW I was born in Montreal and grew up in scarborough

 

[TheTigerMaster]

They'll rush the Sheppard East subway. Duguid and company at Queens Park, and Karygiannis, DeBaeremaker, etc at the council. The support is there, they're just waiting for the right moment to pass.

The support is there? Last time I checked, the Sheppard Subway was by far the most contentious issue at City Council. And with three more downtown councillors coming in 2019, it's not going to get any easier.

Nor do I believe for a second that John Tory wants to hitch himself to the sinking ship that is the Sheppard Subway Extension. Way to alienate his own base of voters.

 

[nfitz]

The support is there? Last time I checked, the Sheppard Subway was by far the most contentious issue at City Council.

Contentious? I don't think it's even on most councillors radar.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The support is there? Last time I checked, the Sheppard Subway was by far the most contentious issue at City Council. And with three more downtown councillors coming in 2019, it's not going to get any easier.

Nor do I believe for a second that John Tory wants to hitch himself to the sinking ship that is the Sheppard Subway Extension. Way to alienate his own base of voters.

Yeah, I just pointed it out. It will happen after the elections.

 

[Rainforest]

From another thread ..

The massive operating costs of a 6km tunnel to one single station, along with the operating costs of the huge expansion of the fleet required to operate this extension. With no additional financial support, that is what is not to like from Byford's perspective. (And from all of us, when the TTC is forced to raise fares once again.)

Only my lamenting of the plight of Scarborough commuters will stop me from laughing at SSE supporters when the TTC decides they have to short-turn vehicles at Kennedy.

First of all, there is no good reason to laugh about short-turning half of the trains at Kennedy. That would just be a sensible mode of operation during the peak hours.

Even if the trains arrive to STC every 6 min instead of every 3 min, they will provide a very frequent and convenient service.

The daily operating costs for SSE with one new station will be much lower than those for the SRT it replaces. No need to clean 4 extra stations. Just 3 subway trains will do the job, instead of 6 SRT trains plus 4 or 5 131E buses that TTC has to run to Kennedy because SRT is at capacity. Hence, lower labor costs.

There is an issue of capital / repair costs; I am not sure if the TTC will win or lose on that account. The tunnel maintenance will cost quite a bit once it is no longer brand-new. On the other hand, the SRT stations and tracks require some maintenance, too.

 

[Rainforest]

The math on that is the city would be spending $1.45M per new daily rider to build this subway extension.

Cost per a new rider is not a very useful measure, as it ignores the benefits for the existing riders.

Counting all riders:
- The cost is $3.4 billion
- 7,300 riders per hour per peak direction
- 7,300 times 3 = 22,000 per 3 morning peak hours
- 22,000 times 2 = 44,000 daily riders per direction
- We will not multiply 44,000 by 2 (opposite direction in the evening), as those are mostly same commuters

Cost per daily rider (existing or new): 3.4B / 44,000 = $77,300. Not bad, given that the infractrusture will work for many decades.

Comparing that to Sheppard East LRT (liked by most of the SSE opponents):
- The cost is $1.2 billion
- 3,000 riders per hour per peak direction
- 3,000 times 3 = 9,000 per 3 morning peak hours
- 9,000 times 2 = 18,000 daily riders, arriving at Don Mills
- We have to take into account that SELRT is a long route; some riders will disembark before reaching Don Mills. I think that 1.5 is a reasonable multiplier to account for those riders.
- Thus, 18,000 times 1.5 = 27,000 daily riders per direction

Cost per daily rider (existing or new): 1.2B / 27,000 = $44,400. Less than for SSE, but not that much different. Plus, the time saved by the average rider due to SELRT will be smaller than the time saved due to SSE.

 

[Rainforest]

From the March Exec:

Item: http://app.toronto.ca/tmmis/viewAgendaItemHistory.do?item=2017.EX23.1
Report: http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2017/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-101444.pdf

Here is the most detailed comparison of the McCowan and Brimley options:

http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2017/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-101548.pdf

They recommend the McCowan option, but their arguments do not sound very convincing to me.

The estimate that the McCowan option places more density and jobs within the walking distance from the subway terminus.

But, STC is a fairly large area. We can't expect everybody living or working there to walk to the subway station. Surely, quite a few people will take a short bus ride, or a short LRT ride if LRT is added. Taking that into account, advantages of the McCowan option become less certain.

Meanwhile, the Brimley option has two solid advantages. It would be cheaper, and it would permit a cheaper Lawrence East station (no need to go as deep) if one was added.