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Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

By the way, the increased cost of the subway extension means there's only $214M left in funding envelope for the Eglinton East LRT (estimated to cost $1.6B). Tory now hopes the province and feds will come up with cash. In other words, his winning strategy is to keep asking for more money like he's been doing for his entire term in office with nothing to show for it. Sounds like a plan.
 
salsa said:
By the way, the increased cost of the subway extension means there's only $214M left in funding envelope for the Eglinton East LRT (estimated to cost $1.6B). Tory now hopes the province and feds will come up with cash. In other words, his winning strategy is to keep asking for more money like he's been doing for his entire term in office with nothing to show for it. Sounds like a plan.
Click to expand...

As I demonstrated before:

Ottawa Infrastructure Program

Federal Contribution:
  • $1,780B
  • 50% of the cost

Assuming the city contribution stays AS IS:
City Contribution:
  • $910M
  • 26% of the cost

The province contribution drops at
  • $854.4M
  • 24%
  • However assuming they keep their initial $1.4B commitment (I guess the $1,990B is in today's dollars), there would be a difference of $1,135B.

That extra billion should be used to bring back Sheppard East Station. The 14,000 ridership figure was when all 3 stations were still part of the plan, not sure why people are surprised at the sharp drop of ridership when 2 stations gets removed. It's like Sheppard all over again, expecting the same projection while gutting the line.

The original plan is the only thing that will allow everyone to save face here. This is as much the Provincial Government's fault as the city. Let's not forget that even if the city went back to the LRT plan, the province was clear about only funding a subway. The above scenario would help to do that with Ottawa paying 50% instead of just $660M or 19% of the tab.

The document points out the following: The City has not yet entered into contribution agreements with either the provincial or the federal government. This report recommends that City Council request confirmation of both the amount and source of the contributions from both funding partners.
 
salsa said:
New ridership and job numbers are worse than in earlier business case.
  • 10,900 jobs within walking distance of proposed station, down from 12,100 in June report
  • Projected job growth within walking distance is now 2,400, down from 2,500
  • Projected future jobs in area now 13,300 instead of 14,500
  • Projected net new riders have dropped from 4,500 to 2,300


The math on that is the city would be spending $1.45M per new daily rider to build this subway extension. Also remember that as of last summer, projected peak hour ridership had been revised down from 14,000 to 7,300. That magical 14,000 persons/hr figure is what convinced council to kill the LRT (so much for that argument).

So all the while, estimated cost has been increasing, while infrastructure to be delivered within the funding envelope has been decreasing. Today's report doesn't update the cost estimate, it just adds a bus station. $3.346B is a 5% estimate. It will grow. This is a slow-motion bait and switch leading to an outcome that would never have been reasonably contemplated at the outset, to say the least. Not that John Tory will ever admit that. "Logic says an express Scarborough subway makes sense", he said today. Okay then.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't adding stations at Lawrence/McCowan and Danforth Rd/Eglinton increase ridership significantly?

I think that part of the low ridership projections is caused by lack of intermediate stops.
 
andrewpmk said:
Wouldn't adding stations at Lawrence/McCowan and Danforth Rd/Eglinton increase ridership significantly?

I think that part of the low ridership projections is caused by lack of intermediate stops.
Click to expand...
Dropping the stations was supposed to save money ($1bn or so) so Crosstown East could be built. Now SSE cost creep is swallowed all but 200m or so of the Crosstown East funding envelope.
 
Cobra said:
The document points out the following: The City has not yet entered into contribution agreements with either the provincial or the federal government. This report recommends that City Council request confirmation of both the amount and source of the contributions from both funding partners.
Click to expand...

There is only a finite amount of funding available for Toronto from the federal government's infrastructure program. Without new money, whatever funds get diverted to Scarborough will not be available for other critical projects. This was not part of the plan when council endorsed the one stop subway just a year ago.


The original plan is the only thing that will allow everyone to save face here. This is as much the Provincial Government's fault as the city. Let's not forget that even if the city went back to the LRT plan, the province was clear about only funding a subway. The above scenario would help to do that with Ottawa paying 50% instead of just $660M or 19% of the tab.
Click to expand...

I fully acknowledge that. It doesn't mean I wont be frustrated with how little we're getting for so much money spent.
 
With all this talk of walkability, is it time we trace all the subways with LRT/streetcar lines? Use the LRT as feeder for the subway?
 
micheal_can said:
With all this talk of walkability, is it time we trace all the subways with LRT/streetcar lines? Use the LRT as feeder for the subway?
Click to expand...
I always thought of TC as a LRT version of the legacy network north of Bloor. I like your thinking but we are wasting too much on too few projects to afford to do this.
 
salsa said:
By the way, the increased cost of the subway extension means there's only $214M left in funding envelope for the Eglinton East LRT (estimated to cost $1.6B). Tory now hopes the province and feds will come up with cash. In other words, his winning strategy is to keep asking for more money like he's been doing for his entire term in office with nothing to show for it. Sounds like a plan.
Click to expand...

Also for the Eglinton East I don't see that much of an issue if they continue to move it forward as I would expect.

Federal Contribution:
800M

City Contribution:
400M - 214M means the City needs approx. 186M if Province shows up.

Province Contribution:
Would now have to come to the table with 400M
 
Cobra said:
http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2017/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-101444.pdf

According to this, using the SRT corridor barely saved any money (up to $500M) and added the inconvenience of shutting down the SRT and most likely incurring increased costs to the TTC and a 6 years nightmare transit scenario in Scarborough.

So we have our answer on why the SRT corridor is a no go.
Click to expand...

Cobra said:
They clearly dismissed cut and cover from being studied for the McCowan corridor. So no need to rebuild Kennedy. Also, the savings of using the SRT corridor is too small, which would shut down the SRT for like 6 years on top of complicate the TTC operations by having to run a shuttle bus service (more buses and drivers would be needed). Finally, it would not support the new vision for Scarborough Centre.
Click to expand...
It sounds like this was done to prop up McCowan. Are they really going to let them dig that road up?

andrewpmk said:
I hope that the Lawrence/McCowan station gets readded to the plan.

Also I hope that some sort of BRT (possibly the Highway 2 BRT in Durham Region) serves Centennial College so that we can reduce the main disadvantage of the subway vs the LRT.
Click to expand...
Me too.
dowlingm said:
Looks like the Chief Planner's bluff has been called. The LRT is fast approaching "Sheppard East" status, and she is not namechecked on the Staff Report as author or as consulted (as Byford was).
Click to expand...

dowlingm said:
  • The 1 stop subway plus Crosstown East was sold as Keesmaat's compromise within a single $3.56bn envelope, which SSE has now swallowed all but $200m of (less, if you go with peer review figures).
  • In the Staff report, the authorship is "City Manager, Deputy City Manager & Chief Financial Officer, and Deputy City Manager Cluster B" with para 1 reading: "This report was prepared in collaboration with the Chief Executive Officer of the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC)."
Click to expand...
The Crosstown East will built and has nothing to do with this. They'll find money for the east and west extensions from the national infrastructure program.

salsa said:
New ridership and job numbers are worse than in earlier business case.
  • 10,900 jobs within walking distance of proposed station, down from 12,100 in June report
  • Projected job growth within walking distance is now 2,400, down from 2,500
  • Projected future jobs in area now 13,300 instead of 14,500
  • Projected net new riders have dropped from 4,500 to 2,300


The math on that is the city would be spending $1.45M per new daily rider to build this subway extension. Also remember that as of last summer, projected peak hour ridership had been revised down from 14,000 to 7,300. That magical 14,000 persons/hr figure is what convinced council to kill the LRT (so much for that argument).

So all the while, estimated cost has been increasing, while infrastructure to be delivered within the funding envelope has been decreasing. Today's report doesn't update the cost estimate, it just adds a bus station. $3.346B is a 5% estimate. It will grow. This is a slow-motion bait and switch leading to an outcome that would never have been reasonably contemplated at the outset, to say the least. Not that John Tory will ever admit that. "Logic says an express Scarborough subway makes sense", he said today. Okay then.
Click to expand...
Cobra said:
As I demonstrated before:

Ottawa Infrastructure Program

Federal Contribution:
  • $1,780B
  • 50% of the cost

Assuming the city contribution stays AS IS:
City Contribution:
  • $910M
  • 26% of the cost

The province contribution drops at
  • $854.4M
  • 24%
  • However assuming they keep their initial $1.4B commitment (I guess the $1,990B is in today's dollars), there would be a difference of $1,135B.

That extra billion should be used to bring back Sheppard East Station. The 14,000 ridership figure was when all 3 stations were still part of the plan, not sure why people are surprised at the sharp drop of ridership when 2 stations gets removed. It's like Sheppard all over again, expecting the same projection while gutting the line.

The original plan is the only thing that will allow everyone to save face here. This is as much the Provincial Government's fault as the city. Let's not forget that even if the city went back to the LRT plan, the province was clear about only funding a subway. The above scenario would help to do that with Ottawa paying 50% instead of just $660M or 19% of the tab.

The document points out the following: The City has not yet entered into contribution agreements with either the provincial or the federal government. This report recommends that City Council request confirmation of both the amount and source of the contributions from both funding partners.
Click to expand...
The reason why Sheppard West was taken out was so that the Sheppard East subway can connect later on via Progress. This plan clearly indicates a massive rebuilt of STC.


Not sure how to feel about this overall. I'm still behind it, but it the coast rises to 4 billion we have a problem.
 
salsa said:
By the way, the increased cost of the subway extension means there's only $214M left in funding envelope for the Eglinton East LRT (estimated to cost $1.6B). Tory now hopes the province and feds will come up with cash. In other words, his winning strategy is to keep asking for more money like he's been doing for his entire term in office with nothing to show for it. Sounds like a plan.
Click to expand...
OneCity said:
Also for the Eglinton East I don't see that much of an issue if they continue to move it forward as I would expect.

Federal Contribution:
800M

City Contribution:
400M - 214M means the City needs approx. 186M if Province shows up.

Province Contribution:
Would now have to come to the table with 400M
Click to expand...
Crosstown East will be built, it's not connected to this imo. Plus it will reduce commute times from the east.
 
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