44 North
Senior Member
Interesting. I guess it's semi-official now that it will be a single bore design with side platforms. There is benefit to this vs dual tunnels, and I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up how the RL is designed as well.
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Cobra
Senior Member
They clearly dismissed cut and cover from being studied for the McCowan corridor. So no need to rebuild Kennedy. Also, the savings of using the SRT corridor is too small, which would shut down the SRT for like 6 years on top of complicate the TTC operations by having to run a shuttle bus service (more buses and drivers would be needed). Finally, it would not support the new vision for Scarborough Centre.
Cobra
Senior Member
The triton terminal is also clearly the superior option. More land could be used if the mall was to sell some of it. Anyways, it's great to see what STC might become and it's a most welcome change to the area, which greatly needed it
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Even going with this number, 1/6th to 1/7th of the project budget is hardly "barely any" money.
AoD
andrewpmk
Senior Member
I hope that the Lawrence/McCowan station gets readded to the plan.
Also I hope that some sort of BRT (possibly the Highway 2 BRT in Durham Region) serves Centennial College so that we can reduce the main disadvantage of the subway vs the LRT.
Also I hope that some sort of BRT (possibly the Highway 2 BRT in Durham Region) serves Centennial College so that we can reduce the main disadvantage of the subway vs the LRT.
crs1026
Senior Member
Especially since this amount could be spent to push the Crosstown extension a little bit further north - say to Malvern.
But yeah, the Brimley route may trigger a little more development. (We do have enough courage to stare down the NIMBYs who will want the subway but not the impact, correct?)
- Paul
Cobra
Senior Member
But other documents also shows that this alignment is the most optimal choice for potential growth and revitalization which they clearly took into consideration. The SRT wouldn't be able to deliver what the McCowan corridor does. Just looking at what the Triton Terminal does and all the extra land that can be redevelop, its clear the SRT was an obstacle to STC full potential.
However, I'm disappointed that cut and cover wasn't even considered which would have brought the cost down
dowlingm
Senior Member
Looks like the Chief Planner's bluff has been called. The LRT is fast approaching "Sheppard East" status, and she is not namechecked on the Staff Report as author or as consulted (as Byford was).
Palma
Senior Member
What do you mean?
dowlingm
Senior Member
- The 1 stop subway plus Crosstown East was sold as Keesmaat's compromise within a single $3.56bn envelope, which SSE has now swallowed all but $200m of (less, if you go with peer review figures).
- In the Staff report, the authorship is "City Manager, Deputy City Manager & Chief Financial Officer, and Deputy City Manager Cluster B" with para 1 reading: "This report was prepared in collaboration with the Chief Executive Officer of the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC)."
Adjei
Senior Member
Why has the cost gone up?
DonValleyRainbow
Senior Member
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Oliver Moore @moore_oliver"based on less than 5 percent design, [price-tag] is considered to be a Class 4 estimate...with an accuracy of -30 percent to +50 percent."
So according to this, price for Scarb project likely to fall somewhere between $2.34B and $5.02B. Perhaps we should start a betting pool
Juan_Lennon416
Senior Member
And why does the cost go up so much in such a short period?
amnesiajune
Senior Member
More detail goes into the calculation of costs. That means new problems are found that would result in higher costs.
salsa
Senior Member
New ridership and job numbers are worse than in earlier business case.
The math on that is the city would be spending $1.45M per new daily rider to build this subway extension. Also remember that as of last summer, projected peak hour ridership had been revised down from 14,000 to 7,300. That magical 14,000 persons/hr figure is what convinced council to kill the LRT (so much for that argument).
So all the while, estimated cost has been increasing, while infrastructure to be delivered within the funding envelope has been decreasing. Today's report doesn't update the cost estimate, it just adds a bus station. $3.346B is a 5% estimate. It will grow. This is a slow-motion bait and switch leading to an outcome that would never have been reasonably contemplated at the outset, to say the least. Not that John Tory will ever admit that. "Logic says an express Scarborough subway makes sense", he said today. Okay then.
- 10,900 jobs within walking distance of proposed station, down from 12,100 in June report
- Projected job growth within walking distance is now 2,400, down from 2,500
- Projected future jobs in area now 13,300 instead of 14,500
- Projected net new riders have dropped from 4,500 to 2,300
The math on that is the city would be spending $1.45M per new daily rider to build this subway extension. Also remember that as of last summer, projected peak hour ridership had been revised down from 14,000 to 7,300. That magical 14,000 persons/hr figure is what convinced council to kill the LRT (so much for that argument).
So all the while, estimated cost has been increasing, while infrastructure to be delivered within the funding envelope has been decreasing. Today's report doesn't update the cost estimate, it just adds a bus station. $3.346B is a 5% estimate. It will grow. This is a slow-motion bait and switch leading to an outcome that would never have been reasonably contemplated at the outset, to say the least. Not that John Tory will ever admit that. "Logic says an express Scarborough subway makes sense", he said today. Okay then.