Trump's Impact on Toronto, Ontario, and Canada

[Euphoria]

Interesting times for sure. I think Trump represents a cultural backlash whereby there's a sense among a large part of the U.S., especially in more rural areas, of being left behind by a globalized world full of very noble sounding regulations and agreements. There is a cynicism about the new international order, even when under the control of so-called progressives, who are perceived by some to be elitists. The problem with all of this is that of course the world is a better place to live in for most people today than it used to be, yet there are hotspots and pressure points in the global economy. Unless everyone is experiencing success in the current economy, these cultural wars will continue. Unless there is some serious world crisis, these cultural wars will likely remain largely rhetorical. So where does Canada fit into this? And where do sub-national jurisdictions like Ontario and virtual city-states like Toronto fit in?

 

[Euphoria]

Where I would argue there are opportunities for Canada is that our country seems to straddle two important emerging alliances: Can-Sino-European-Pacific (Canada, China, Europe through CETA, and members of TPP), and the one Trump seems interested in, an Ango-American-Russian alliance. Thankfully Canada is also closely allied with Britain, the U.S., the Commonwealth, and members of Francophonie. Canada comes across as a voice of reason in the world today; however, I think this is partly the result of our country's wealth and institutions. A good time to be Canadian for sure. Hope we can sustain it.

 

[kEiThZ]

Canada is screwed for several reasons.

1) Collateral damage in the coming US-Mexico trade war.

2) Conservatives in the US utterly despise Canada as a freeloader, particularly on defence. Canada is at half the pledged NATO target and in the bottom third of NATO countries. Either we boost spending, or the Trump administration will freeze us out of important discussions.

3) Trudeaumania. American conservatives despise him more than Canadian conservatives. Particularly his rockstar image. They aren't going to want to co-operate with him.

How this filters down to Toronto and Ontario is yet to be seen. But I foresee real economic damage.

 

[Euphoria]

Keystone XL approval will lift Alberta and make the Canadian economy more balanced. I think the challenge for the world will be, how do we maintain fact-based science around climate change and the consequences of having one of the world's biggest emitters, the U.S., turn its back on international climate goals? How will Canada retain virtue on this when the costs of Trudeau's new carbon tax will make us a less competitive country in which to do business compared to the U.S.? I have a theory about this: Highly skilled people will continue to flock to Canada as an open, tolerant democracy that is on the right side of history when it comes to climate change. I do however think that Trudeau's carbon tax is problematic. We already pay very high prices at the pumps. The carbon tax will eventually add 11 cents a litre to that high cost. The high price of energy is already a an incentive to make industry and transportation less energy consuming. In some ways George W. and the Republicans are right that technology will likely save us from climate change, the Elon Musks of the world. However, climate change is a very real concern that has to be addressed at a global scale. As for Trudeau, he's seen by the Trumps and Putins of the world as naïve. Trudeau is no dummy. He's appealing to the hearts and minds of young people, even in far-flung places like China. His ilk will run the show world-wide soon. In the end, Trump is reactionary backlash.