PMT
Senior Member
Sorry to nitpick, but a development application was filed for Oasis back in September.
Thread: http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/599-lawrence-ave-w-englemount-4s.26120/
Toronto Emerald Park Condos | 128.92m | 40s | Bazis | Rosario Varacalli
- Thread starter AlbertC
- Start date
Thread: http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/599-lawrence-ave-w-englemount-4s.26120/
sunnyraytoronto
Senior Member
Pit-picking and constructive criticism are most welcome,.....
From the Toronto Development Application site for Ward 15 (Eglinton-Lawrence), there is no active development application for 599 Lawrence Ave (at southeast corner of Lawrence West and Englemount Ave - site of Bazis' Oasis On Lawrence),.... (I've highlighted 639 Lawrence West in the map)
That Oasis On Lawrence development application submitted on Sept 15, 2016 for 54 units have since been "withdrawn".
http://app.toronto.ca/DevelopmentAp...ion=init&folderRsn=4029112&isCofASearch=false
Originally they were talking 62 units, submitted for 54 units which was "withdrawn",..... I'm hearing 39 units, which would require a resubmission of the development application.
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Bill123
Active Member
They should be pretty worried for e-condos and 1 Yorkville. The housing market is looking to correct after this year or at least slow down. High possibility of a foreign tax coming to Toronto even though Wynne said there would be none. You can see from Vancouver that even condos are not immune to corrections. Everyone in the housing industry is obviously worried about a foreign tax. TREB trying to convince governments that only 4.9% of buyers are foreign, like anyone is dumb enough to trust them.
Banks have been quietly increasing rates during refinancing. Mortgage rates 2 years down the road from now will probably be 4-5% which is roughly double today's rates. The longer Bazis takes to build these the higher chance of their buyers defaulting or loans getting pulled.
They may be building townhomes because they fear what a foreign buyer tax could do to Toronto. It's less risk. Either that or no decent high rise contractor would work with them anymore.
Yesterday management sent out an Engineering Survey which unit owners should fill out about issues in the building. Not surprisingly others have also been complaining to the board.
Banks have been quietly increasing rates during refinancing. Mortgage rates 2 years down the road from now will probably be 4-5% which is roughly double today's rates. The longer Bazis takes to build these the higher chance of their buyers defaulting or loans getting pulled.
They may be building townhomes because they fear what a foreign buyer tax could do to Toronto. It's less risk. Either that or no decent high rise contractor would work with them anymore.
Yesterday management sent out an Engineering Survey which unit owners should fill out about issues in the building. Not surprisingly others have also been complaining to the board.
The E Condos condominium tower and 1 Yorkville are essentially sold out. There are no signs that Toronto's condo market is slowing down, and in fact, the market has never been tighter. Any speculation about a foreign buyers tax here is just that, but if it did come, it would barely matter as there's still such a pent up demand for new homes here that the difference between having 39 or 62 units added to the market would be statistically irrelevant.
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amnesiajune
Senior Member
It's a year after your closing, right? That's standard practice for condominiums - they have to do an assessment for Tarion warranty purposes after one year, where you're supposed to report anything that would be covered by the two-year or seven-year warranty.
amnesiajune
Senior Member
Also...
What's happening in Vancouver isn't really a correction. What the BC government did to the housing market was similar to throwing a wrench in the spokes of a moving bike - you can call that "stopping" if you want but it's not the same thing as using the brakes. After a year or two the market will stabilize and then you'll actually be able to see what the tax's effects are. TREB is pretty up-front about the fact that their numbers only reflect the resale market, and don't include sales of new homes (which are more likely to be sold to foreign buyers, particularly in the case of investment condos).
And on your other point, there is zero chance of a foreign buyer tax coming to Toronto. Regardless of what you think about Wynne, she's not like Christy Clark... she actually listens to her advisors and experts instead of just doing whatever nonsense that polls well.
What's happening in Vancouver isn't really a correction. What the BC government did to the housing market was similar to throwing a wrench in the spokes of a moving bike - you can call that "stopping" if you want but it's not the same thing as using the brakes. After a year or two the market will stabilize and then you'll actually be able to see what the tax's effects are. TREB is pretty up-front about the fact that their numbers only reflect the resale market, and don't include sales of new homes (which are more likely to be sold to foreign buyers, particularly in the case of investment condos).
And on your other point, there is zero chance of a foreign buyer tax coming to Toronto. Regardless of what you think about Wynne, she's not like Christy Clark... she actually listens to her advisors and experts instead of just doing whatever nonsense that polls well.
Bill123
Active Member
Management says that the board ordered an engineering survey.
Data for real estate sales in Canada is heavily controlled by special interests and for some reason they plan to keep it that way. Just the other week GTAsoldview got taken down. Listening to anything TREB or board related for real estate numbers is like listening to Bazis on if you should own Bazis real estate.
What I am worried about is that Toronto home prices are now more expensive than New York City (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/24/toronto-nyc-affordability-house-prices_n_14344230.html). I also hear of surging property tax delinquency. I also hear of a rising and record number of mortgage fraud. What really gives it away is that everyone from my parents to my uncle to friends to service workers I encounter all truly believe that house prices here will always be going up and up and up and that I should buy as much as I can as soon as I can. They really think they are real estate geniuses.
It does not have to be a foreign buyer tax that sets off a correction. It could be higher lending rates from either BoC or the big banks, it could be Trump, it could be a federal tax, it could be the Chinese Government. I might sound like chicken little but you sound just like the realtors and speculators just before they brought on the tax in Vancouver. Before the tax in BC people were going "only 7-8% of all purchases are from foreigners, this tax won't do anything" but now they are going "the BC government threw a wrench in the spokes of a moving bike!"
Wynne may not be like Clark but she won't be re-elected. She is kind of irrelevant, she's only got 1 more year. Listening to her advisors has plunged her approval ratings to the lowest of any Ontario premier in history. The foreign buyer tax in BC may have been like a wrench in the spokes of a moving bike but its got a 90% approval rating. Last time I checked democracies are supposed to be for the people, not people with vested interests in real estate. The youth now can not afford a home. They must purchase cars to get to work creating great congestion which strains city infrastructure. The ones who do manage to buy homes are heavily leveraged. A large portion of their paycheck goes towards a mortgage, the rate of which is at historic lows and will only increase with time. This money could had been spent in the local economy or saved. Some go as far as leaving the city to live hours away in Hamilton or Waterloo, bringing the insanity along with them. The smart and able ones do what they always do and go overseas/to the US and these prices just push them out faster.
1-2 years is not that far off. Regardless if I am right or wrong the future does not look good. You either have house prices rising even more or you have a correction.
@interchange42
They are on paper "Sold-Out" but its just a deposit in a trust account the builder can only access if the buyer defaults. The buyers may have signed an agreement but they can always forfeit the deposit and walk away like some of these retail unit buyers here at EP. Once house prices start to mellow, speculators will have less and less reason to speculate. Banks will have less and less reason to continue lending as much. It's not like a credit crunch has never happened before just read the article Sunnyray posted earlier today.
The "Sold-Out" claims can be for marketing appeal. Some developers will claim their project has sold out when in reality only 80% sold.
Data for real estate sales in Canada is heavily controlled by special interests and for some reason they plan to keep it that way. Just the other week GTAsoldview got taken down. Listening to anything TREB or board related for real estate numbers is like listening to Bazis on if you should own Bazis real estate.
What I am worried about is that Toronto home prices are now more expensive than New York City (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/24/toronto-nyc-affordability-house-prices_n_14344230.html). I also hear of surging property tax delinquency. I also hear of a rising and record number of mortgage fraud. What really gives it away is that everyone from my parents to my uncle to friends to service workers I encounter all truly believe that house prices here will always be going up and up and up and that I should buy as much as I can as soon as I can. They really think they are real estate geniuses.
It does not have to be a foreign buyer tax that sets off a correction. It could be higher lending rates from either BoC or the big banks, it could be Trump, it could be a federal tax, it could be the Chinese Government. I might sound like chicken little but you sound just like the realtors and speculators just before they brought on the tax in Vancouver. Before the tax in BC people were going "only 7-8% of all purchases are from foreigners, this tax won't do anything" but now they are going "the BC government threw a wrench in the spokes of a moving bike!"
Wynne may not be like Clark but she won't be re-elected. She is kind of irrelevant, she's only got 1 more year. Listening to her advisors has plunged her approval ratings to the lowest of any Ontario premier in history. The foreign buyer tax in BC may have been like a wrench in the spokes of a moving bike but its got a 90% approval rating. Last time I checked democracies are supposed to be for the people, not people with vested interests in real estate. The youth now can not afford a home. They must purchase cars to get to work creating great congestion which strains city infrastructure. The ones who do manage to buy homes are heavily leveraged. A large portion of their paycheck goes towards a mortgage, the rate of which is at historic lows and will only increase with time. This money could had been spent in the local economy or saved. Some go as far as leaving the city to live hours away in Hamilton or Waterloo, bringing the insanity along with them. The smart and able ones do what they always do and go overseas/to the US and these prices just push them out faster.
1-2 years is not that far off. Regardless if I am right or wrong the future does not look good. You either have house prices rising even more or you have a correction.
@interchange42
They are on paper "Sold-Out" but its just a deposit in a trust account the builder can only access if the buyer defaults. The buyers may have signed an agreement but they can always forfeit the deposit and walk away like some of these retail unit buyers here at EP. Once house prices start to mellow, speculators will have less and less reason to speculate. Banks will have less and less reason to continue lending as much. It's not like a credit crunch has never happened before just read the article Sunnyray posted earlier today.
The "Sold-Out" claims can be for marketing appeal. Some developers will claim their project has sold out when in reality only 80% sold.
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amnesiajune
Senior Member
I've been hearing this for decades. "The crash is coming." "It's a bubble!" "House prices can't keep going up." I know people who sold their home and tried renting, anticipating the crash, and ended up getting screwed. So if these ominous warnings have been wrong for so long, why are they any more reliable today?
Again... People said this about McGuinty in 2007. They said it about him in 2011. They said it about Christy Clark in 2013, when she also had an approval rating in the low-twenties. People said Kathleen Wynne was doomed in 2014. Tim Hudak was formidable, he was likeable, he would shut up about social issues, people were tired of the Liberals. So tired that they gave Wynne a majority government.
Uncle Meat
New Member
Are you implying that house prices will be going up forever on the grounds that the real estate market has not corrected for a long time ? Just curious.
mkerian
Active Member
Hey guys, before this thread turns down the endless road of "BUBBLE - YEA OR NAY?", may I point out there are other threads within this forum that are discussing this topic?
Back to Emerald Park, my general thinking has always been that if you're buying a place to live, not rent or invest or whatever, but to live in and make a home either by yourself or with family, you'll generally be fine regardless of what happens to the housing market. Sure, this may not be the best building ever, but I'm positive there's lots of good people in there who care about their local community. We see that already with some posters in this thread.
So, let's continue to focus on the goings-on of this building. For all the bad management and activities of certain individuals, I'm looking forward to the tunnel opening and continuing to learn about the retail and residential progress.
Back to Emerald Park, my general thinking has always been that if you're buying a place to live, not rent or invest or whatever, but to live in and make a home either by yourself or with family, you'll generally be fine regardless of what happens to the housing market. Sure, this may not be the best building ever, but I'm positive there's lots of good people in there who care about their local community. We see that already with some posters in this thread.
So, let's continue to focus on the goings-on of this building. For all the bad management and activities of certain individuals, I'm looking forward to the tunnel opening and continuing to learn about the retail and residential progress.
Mint
New Member
Anecdotally, I think most of the people here (renters and owners) are wealthy Chinese mainlanders who don't speak much English nor have enough stake in Canada itself (let alone this building) to care what happens. If the building starts falling apart, they'd simply find a new place to live.
The residents can only do so much when management and the developer don't give a crap about this building. People like sunnyray have already done more than I've seen at other places I've lived. When have you ever seen a news article get published about a tiny TTC connection in a no-name condo? The worst part is, you can easily look across the street to Hullmark to see how a legitimate developer supports its buildings. In fact, one of the sliding doors is broken on the Poyntz TTC entrance at Hullmark; I can almost guarantee it'll be fixed before month end whereas I'm not even sure Bazis will fix the retail doors before half this year has ended.
I really love having to walk across the street through this slush crap because this garbage developer screwed up a TTC connection so badly. What's the project duration on it now? 2 years?
Edit: Oh yeah, someone seemed to have written "WHY" on the "STOP . NO FURTHER ACCESS TO TTC" paper that was taped on the barrier on the EP side of the connection. The paper has now been ripped off of the barrier... lol. More and more people are frustrated.
The residents can only do so much when management and the developer don't give a crap about this building. People like sunnyray have already done more than I've seen at other places I've lived. When have you ever seen a news article get published about a tiny TTC connection in a no-name condo? The worst part is, you can easily look across the street to Hullmark to see how a legitimate developer supports its buildings. In fact, one of the sliding doors is broken on the Poyntz TTC entrance at Hullmark; I can almost guarantee it'll be fixed before month end whereas I'm not even sure Bazis will fix the retail doors before half this year has ended.
I really love having to walk across the street through this slush crap because this garbage developer screwed up a TTC connection so badly. What's the project duration on it now? 2 years?
Edit: Oh yeah, someone seemed to have written "WHY" on the "STOP . NO FURTHER ACCESS TO TTC" paper that was taped on the barrier on the EP side of the connection. The paper has now been ripped off of the barrier... lol. More and more people are frustrated.
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amnesiajune
Senior Member
Forever? Of course not. But I think we're headed for something like New York, Seattle, San Francisco and Vancouver where single-family housing prices just plateau at a stable point that reflects the extremely high demand, the city's massive wealth and no new supply in the market, and they'll probably decline a bit in 10-20 years when baby boomers start passing away. Toronto would've been there long ago had it not been for the OMB's power to overrule the city's unsustainable development policies.
Last fall, the wheelchair-accessible door at Hullmark Centre's Sheppard TTC entrance was broken and didn't get fixed for about a month and a half. One of the sliding doors at Poyntz was also broken for a month or so. And if they'd taken longer to fix the Sheppard entrance, Sheppard-Yonge would've become legally wheelchair-inaccessible since the Northeast entrance's elevator also broke down for a while.
sunnyraytoronto
Senior Member
MKerian, take a look at reality,.... and you should realize this "BUBBLE - YEA OR NAY?" conversation applies to Bazis' EmeraldPark more than anything,.... and if the mod (interchange42) doesn't have a problem with the conversation and is in fact already participating in the conversation,... then why are you (as usual) trying to police it???
First of all,.... whereas 35% of residential condo units in NorthYorkCentre are investor owned and rented out,.... 70% of EmeraldPark (almost 600) residential-condos are investor owned and rented out (ditto for Tridel-HullmarkCentre residential-condo). Many of the frequent posters on this thread who actually live at EmeraldPark are renters,... including AmnesiaJune and Mint.
Seeing that Bazis marketed and sold EmeraldPark residential-condos in Summer 2008 with promised occupancy in 2011 - didn't even start construction until 2011!!! Then promised occupancy in 2013, but those residential condos didn't open for occupancy until 2015,..... not a lot people who buy to live in condo can afford to sit around 7 years waiting,.... EmeraldPark residential-condos are on the subway line and tend to be small,... idea for investors!!!
As for the 60 office-condo units,.... it's also a 70% number,.... but it's 70% EMPTY as these office-condo Investors can't find office tenants or have refused to rent them out! Of the occupied offices, some are owner occupied and others are rental/lease. Again, not many real businesses can put themselves on hold for 7 years waiting for their office to be built,.... thus, the over 70% of EmeraldPark office-condo buyers are investor-owned! Ditto, similar condition for Tridel HullmarkCentre office-condo units,.... and yes, many are owned by foreign-oversea investors:
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...l-kirkor-architects.668/page-108#post-1147431
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...l-kirkor-architects.668/page-108#post-1147434
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...l-kirkor-architects.668/page-108#post-1147440
Ditto for the 75 PacificMall type cubicle retail-condo units,..... almost all of these retail-condo units are Chinese owned since when they went to market it was quickly rumoured that Loblaws' T&T was to be the anchor tenant at EmeraldPark 2nd floor retail,.... and again the vast majority of these PacificMall type cubicle retail-condo units are investor-owned! That certainly is the case along the larger Yonge frontage stores where multiple units are owned by for individual foreign investor from mainland China:
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...-rosario-varacalli.4829/page-145#post-1177013
Along Poyntz, most of those PacificMall type cubicle retail-condo units are still empty after over 1 year since occupancy,... certainly looks like investor owned stores to me,... as most most of these stores still have for lease / for sale signage,... here's one where the owner renovated the store but decided to bail!
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...-rosario-varacalli.4829/page-146#post-1177804
Along the Beecroft side, the food-court in the northern 2/3 are mostly occupied now with small ethnic food places,... and some of the retail-condo unit owners couldn't find tenants so they're forced to eventually opened their own store so that they don't default on the unit!
Every single component of Bazis' EmeraldPark is heavily investor owned: 70% of EmeraldPark almost 600 residential-condos are investor owned, more than 70% of EmeraldPark 60 office-condos are investor owned and the vast majority of EmeraldPark Pacific-Mall type cubicle retail-condo units are investor owned,..... heck even the 2nd floor Metro supermarket space is now investor-owned as Metro original landlord to LCBO unit and now Metro has refused to open up their own supermarket store and has been actively looking to lease out or sell out the supermarket space for the last 2 years!
The vast majority of every single component (residential, office and retail) of EmeraldPark is investor-owned to rent/lease/hold VS owner-occupied "lived-in" units,... and many of these investor-owned residential, office and retail units are by foreign oversea investors who will be more than happy to sell and realize their profit as soon as the market turns south,.... thus, this "BUBBLE - YEA OR NAY?" conversation applies to EmeraldPark more than a typical Toronto condo building with a much higher owner-occupied live-in ratio since a large exit of EmeraldPark investor-owner will push down the price more than elsewhere.
We've already seen some of this, when Bazis finally delivered residential-condos in 2015,.... a lot of the original to live-in owners had moved on with their lives during the delays,... so they became investor-owners to lease/rent or selling their units,.... the market price of these Bazis EmeraldPark "luxury" residential units which originally sold during 2008-2009 preconstruction at the same luxury prices as Tridel HullmarkCentre residential-condos,..... quickly got chopped down to regular non-luxury unit prices comparable to some of the area's non-new condo units,....
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...-rosario-varacalli.4829/page-146#post-1177414
MKerian, if you don't like the current "BUBBLE - YEA OR NAY?" conversation on the EmeraldPark thread, then don't read the thread,.... or try to engage posters on a different discussion topic,.... but going around "policing" posters and reporting their post just because they don't share your long time Pro-BazisEmeraldPark views (as per your post history) isn't cool.
BTW, Mint, if you're referring to Tridel HullmarCentre SouthTower TTC entrance (southern?) sliding door that was locked last week, both were working on the weekend,... so it's already fixed! While both Tridel HullmarCentre SouthTower and NorthTower TTC entrances were built by Tridel and are on HullmarkCentre property,... my understanding is that it's the TTC responsibility to maintain them and keep them clean.
BTW, Mint,.... I think that "STOP . NO FURTHER ACCESS TO TTC" paper that was taped on the barrier on the EP side of the connection got ripped off because someone later wrote "Bazis sucks"!!!
Mint
New Member
Unfortunately, I am an owner.
If I were a renter, I'd probably just bail out of Emerald Park instead of complaining about it so much here.
sunnyraytoronto
Senior Member
Mint, I certainly do stand corrected and I do apologize. For some reason, I just thought you were a renter,... maybe it was the later join date. Did you buy pre-construction or after?
As an owner you do have more say VS a renter,.... condo boards are designed to represent owners. And as a live-in owner, you should ensure your voice is heard at the board,... otherwise it'll be drowned out by the investor-owners who wouldn't care as much about EmeraldPark, all they care about is that their unit is rented and they're making money.