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The Retail Apocalypse

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From Star: https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/10/24/hbc-to-sell-fifth-avenue-flagship-lord-taylor-store.html

I must say I am a bit surprised that if the Bay is cutting back they don't just shut all (or most) of their Bloor store.
 

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I still can't understand why Hudson's Bay wouldn't simply keep land and re-appropriate it themselves if it's no longer useful for retail.
 
I never really understood how HBC could even occupy such a large property on Queen. For years if you've ever gone up to the 6th or 7th floor, you really felt like one of the only individuals on that floor.

When they sent Housewares up there, that really changed. It's as a nice a layout for that sorta offering as I've seen, and definitely a draw.

While the store is one of the larger dept. stores in the world (not the largest), I think it's quite viable at its current size and perhaps more so than as a smaller store, as that space offers ample opportunity to carry core brands while also differentiating w/unique and higher end offerings.

Its shortcoming in the past has really be under investment in stores. That has changed to a great degree in recent years.

I think the market for retail of a chain-nature, for goods, not services, is really in fewer, bigger stores with depth.

I'll note one other exception, food, where I think the future is convenience. But people still don't want limited variety, which means food stores will have to have fewer product facings, and re-stock shelves more frequently, but I digress.
 
We bought a few things from the housewares section recently. It's really nicely set up, despite how long it takes to get up there. I'm unhappy with how the the big stockholders are more interested in squeezing money out of the real estate over providing a great retail experience. The Queen Street Store just went through a big renovation and reorganization, and I don't look forward to that again.
 
Sleep Country Canada has had 17th straight quarters of growth, with same-store sales increasing 11.9%, 7.5% and 7.3% in each of the reported quarters in 2017, and with revenue increases above 10% in each of those quarters.

Sleep Country Canada is doing fine at the moment. We shouldn't be jumping to conclusions about what is happening in this so-called "retail apocalypse".
 
Fair point. Admittedly, I just had that jingle in my head and just wanted to say it in spur of the moment mood.

I've just looked into this topic some more though, and found the following piece from the Motley Fool which is an interesting read. References also made on the demise of Sears.

https://www.fool.ca/2017/11/03/grow...ce-this-high-quality-retail-stock-is-on-sale/

Growth Investors, Take Notice: This High-Quality Retail Stock Is on Sale

Karen Thomas
| November 3, 2017

Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc. (TSX:ZZZ) shares declined a whopping 13% yesterday, as the company reported third-quarter results that were below expectations. Consensus expectations were for EPS of $0.66, and the company came in at $0.63.

As we can see, a miss of three cents is a big deal for a stock that is trading at the lofty valuations that Sleep Country has been trading at.

But that’s okay, and I will tell you why.

Firstly, this 13% decline means that we can pick up the stock at a bargain. Trading at $33.58 at close yesterday, the stock now trades at a P/E multiple of 21 times this year’s earnings — down from prior levels of over 23 times.

Secondly, Sleep Country actually deserves to trade at a premium, given its track record of above-average profitability and top-tier returns. In the latest year, the company reported an ROE of 20%, an ROI of 12.7%, and an ROA of 11% — all really strong numbers for any industry.

So, this quarter was disappointing relative to expectations, which, in fact, is the first quarter of lower than expected results in a long time.

Yet the company still posted very strong numbers. Same-store sales growth was 7.3% for the quarter, the gross margin was 33% versus 32.4% last year, and the company is ahead of schedule with its plan for new store openings.

Lastly, the demise of Sears presents a very big opportunity for Sleep Country, as Sears was Canada’s second-largest mattress seller. This leaves a gaping hole for Sleep Country to fill, and with its expansion plans already in full gear, it has a head start.

Another high-quality retailer that reported its results this week is Indigo Books and Music Inc. (TSX:IDG). With same-store sales growth of 2.8%, the company continues to see momentum in its online platform and merchandising revenue.

Indigo is also undergoing a major shift. The company is rolling out its newly re-imagined concept to transform the stores from a bookstore to a cultural department store for book lovers — the new age department store.

It’s perfect timing, as Indigo will surely also benefit from Sears’s demise.

And these new stores are seeing results that are blowing away the competition, posting an average revenue growth rate of 16% and improved retail metrics. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet that has cash and short-term investments of $171 million and no debt.

And in a bold move where many others before them have failed, Chapters has announced its intention to enter the U.S. market with a store in New Jersey, hoping to replicate its success in Canada.
 
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My comment wasn't so much directed at you, Albert, and apologies that I wrote it in a manner that it seemed that way.

It was more intended to gently suggest that some big assumptions have been made in this "retail apocalypse" thread (a number of which, admittedly, may prove to be correct over time). In my haste, my post was more strident than intended.
 
No worries, all is good. In hindsight, my post should have been made with more context on the company's actual current status. But I learned something new today.
 
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So Toys R Us is calling it quits in the US & UK.

They say that the Canadian operations will survive. But you have to wonder how well it will do now.

They were another victim of predatory hedgefunds.
 
So Toys R Us is calling it quits in the US & UK.

They say that the Canadian operations will survive. But you have to wonder how well it will do now.

They were another victim of predatory hedgefunds.

How does one tackle the issue of people or businesses buying companies solely to destroy them?

Should we prohibit 'leveraged buy outs'?
 
Sounds like Sears all over again. I give the Canadian arm of Toys R Us 1 year to live.
 

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