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TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

Coruscanti Cognoscente said:
Has anyone ever suggested Sheppard is taking cars off the 401? Does ANY subway take cars of the road? No highway driver is taking a subway as an alternative.

GO, on the other hand, does relieve highways.
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I'm pretty sure there at least a few drivers who take the subway over the DVP and even the Gardiner when going downtown.
 
junctionist said:
Of course that's the case. Subway lines also allow for a more centralized population, reducing the need for more urban expressways.
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It would be interesting to see a statistic on what percentage of vehicles on 416 expressways are trips that originated in the 905. I guess what I'm saying is, would increased subway use in the 416 really result in a reduced need for urban expressways? If (and just pulling rough numbers out my rear here, for the sake of example) 70% of all cars passing underneath the Prince Edward Viaduct on the DVP are 905-originated trips, would the 10% reduction in 416 traffic as a result of a new subway really have that much effect? 10% of the 30% of traffic on the DVP originating in the 416 would only account for a 3% drop in traffic.

I realize that the numbers can be scrutinized, but I was going more on the premise rather than the actual numbers.
 
Electrify said:
I'm pretty sure there at least a few drivers who take the subway over the DVP and even the Gardiner when going downtown.
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Agreed. During rush hour, the traffic is bad enough that driving and public transit aren't all that far apart. But the TTC is cheaper and you don't have the stress of the drive.

That said, the further away you are from a subway line inside the 416, the more incentivized you are to drive. As you move further away, you end up with slower modes of transport (bus) dominating a large part of your commute time and you incur more transfers. This is what a lot of the Transit City proponents don't understand. Sure there's rail bias that favours LRT. But what people really want is access to a subway (the ultimate in rail bias) and fewer transfers. Make that happen and you'll see car usage drop in the outer 416.

All Scarborough needs in this regard (at the moment) is not the Sheppard subway but better bus lanes on Sheppard (gets you to the subway faster) and a Bloor-Danforth extension to STC (eliminates a transfer).
 
gweed123 said:
It would be interesting to see a statistic on what percentage of vehicles on 416 expressways are trips that originated in the 905. I guess what I'm saying is, would increased subway use in the 416 really result in a reduced need for urban expressways? If (and just pulling rough numbers out my rear here, for the sake of example) 70% of all cars passing underneath the Prince Edward Viaduct on the DVP are 905-originated trips, would the 10% reduction in 416 traffic as a result of a new subway really have that much effect? 10% of the 30% of traffic on the DVP originating in the 416 would only account for a 3% drop in traffic.

I realize that the numbers can be scrutinized, but I was going more on the premise rather than the actual numbers.
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I read somewhere that a mere 10% drop in traffic would basically bottlenecks during rush hour in most cities. So even 3% is worth a lot.

And there's nothing to say that an expansion of the subway network to the fringes of the 416 might not divert even some 905 commuters. I'd argue that STC might become as popular as Yorkdale for 905ers if the BD subway ends there.
 
kEiThZ said:
I read somewhere that a mere 10% drop in traffic would basically bottlenecks during rush hour in most cities. So even 3% is worth a lot.

And there's nothing to say that an expansion of the subway network to the fringes of the 416 might not divert even some 905 commuters. I'd argue that STC might become as popular as Yorkdale for 905ers if the BD subway ends there.
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I'd argue against that being a great reason to extend to STC. The majority of the 905er need to be on GO not on the TTC. Sure some will make the choice to drive to a subway station that are not too far from STC, but most are still on the 401 and are still clogging major parts of the highway. The additional downside, (when comparing a BD extension to make it easier for 905ers to get downtown) as we all know, is they would have to transfer at Yonge to get all the way downtown. The only benefit to going along Sheppard is you skip the transfer at Yonge and Bloor. We pack on 905 commuters to the BD line and Yonge- Bloor Station becomes increasingly worse.

Any subway or other mode extension to STC should be for the benefit of Toronto (and some regional 905) residents, not to the trips which originate in Markham or Oshawa.
 
^ I've never argued that we should extend the Bloor-Danforth line to STC for the benefit of 905ers. Obviously, the biggest benefits woud accrue to Scarborough (and other 416) residents.

I'm merely suggesting that if you build this project, you might divert SOME 905 commuters off the 401. Sure, they should be on GO. But they aren't. And if it helps takes them off the highways, why not?

Should that be the prime motivation to build it? Of course not. Is it a nice side-effect if it happens? Yes.

And all this was in relation to gweed's pondering about whether extending Sheppard would provide any relief to the highways. I am merely suggesting that the most relief will come not from extending Sheppard, but from extending the Bloor-Danforth line (and building park 'n rides at STC).
 
The Danforth line has to be extended to STC just as much as a No-Fly Zone was needed in Libya.
 
1. While it would be interesting to see how many people flooding the DVP and Gardiner into downtown each day are from the 905, I don't expect it to be a 90/10 ratio like some expect it to be. There are plenty of multi-car driveways south of Steeles, and even in old Toronto. I would not be too surprised if the ratio is closer to 60/40.

2. The biggest problem with GO, especially in the northern suburbs, is its limited operation. GO is great for 9-5 commuters, but most any other time when I go downtown I'll park at Yorkdale and take the train from there. GO also leaves those in the outer-416 high and dry, with poor bus connections and non-existent off-peak service (at least in the 905 GO runs off-peak buses, no such service exists for GO stations in Toronto besides trains on the Lakeshore lines, and even then local connections are questionable). Imagine if we had people taking the bus and subway to Kipling, Bloor, Danforth, Kennedy, or Oriole GO stations to downtown Toronto rather than flooding on to the YUS subway line?

3. I second think that Ford should be on trial for being plain stupid :)
 
re: 2
This is the main reason GO and TTC need to be under the same umbrella. We need to stop treating the subway like regional rail. Frequent all-day service on GO's ROWs would change everything.

re: 3
Would be a pretty quick trial. 5 min worth of youtube....guilty!
 
SlickFranky said:
re: 3
Would be a pretty quick trial. 5 min worth of youtube....guilty!
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lolol. though gadhafi would win on a trial for saying the most outlandish bizarre things. although it's tougher to choose between gadhafi and charlie sheen.
 
gweed123 said:
It would be interesting to see a statistic on what percentage of vehicles on 416 expressways are trips that originated in the 905. I guess what I'm saying is, would increased subway use in the 416 really result in a reduced need for urban expressways? If (and just pulling rough numbers out my rear here, for the sake of example) 70% of all cars passing underneath the Prince Edward Viaduct on the DVP are 905-originated trips, would the 10% reduction in 416 traffic as a result of a new subway really have that much effect? 10% of the 30% of traffic on the DVP originating in the 416 would only account for a 3% drop in traffic.

I realize that the numbers can be scrutinized, but I was going more on the premise rather than the actual numbers.
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Even if that's the case, which I doubt, doesn't that support my idea? If only a small part of the cars are from Toronto, then the millions of people in Toronto must be using something else to get around other than urban expressways. The car-dependent periphery needs the highway, being devoid of rapid transit and the appropriate built form to support it.

However, I think the numbers are more even because we have some highways and some subways. Ours is a sort of hybrid system that doesn't seem to provide either kind of commuter with an ideal network, though the freeway network is incredibly developed relative to the subway system. People from every part of the city use the expressways and highways, but those that live closer to subways are inclined to consider it as an alternative. Even distant suburbanites are increasingly using express local transit to subway stations, as well as GO Transit.
 
junctionist said:
Even if that's the case, which I doubt, doesn't that support my idea? If only a small part of the cars are from Toronto, then the millions of people in Toronto must be using something else to get around other than urban expressways. The car-dependent periphery needs the highway, being devoid of rapid transit and the appropriate built form to support it.

However, I think the numbers are more even because we have some highways and some subways. Ours is a sort of hybrid system that doesn't seem to provide either kind of commuter with an ideal network, though the freeway network is incredibly developed relative to the subway system. People from every part of the city use the expressways and highways, but those that live closer to subways are inclined to consider it as an alternative. Even distant suburbanites are increasingly using express local transit to subway stations, as well as GO Transit.
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Toronto's transportation problem is the GTA's sustained growth. Every year Toronto grows by the size of Kitchener and the surrounding GTA adds a Waterloo. Since amalgamation 13 years ago, Toronto has grown by 30% and the GTA has grown to be 1/6 Canadians. Growth in the 905 continues to outstrip the 416 by a factor of two or three.

When we talk about a 10% reduction in traffic, it's from possible future volumes, not the current free-flowing system. It'll be 2015-2020 before any Sheppard extension is built, so that's an extra 3 million people using the urban expressways.

Look at England where a small town like Exeter has worse traffic than Paris, France. We need to eliminate the choke points on our roads, but we are growing faster than we can afford to build. A 3% drop in the worst part of DVP traffic would be 12,500 cars gone. Not much of a drop in the scheme of things, but it's better than 45,000 extra cars on the roads. You also forget about the large trucking portion on the roads, bringing goods in and products out of the Toronto region.

GO is good for 9-5 commuters because that's what it was started as 60 years ago. They are buying and building track as fast as they can afford, but after we lost the 90s with Harris, it's going to be 2025 before we see real rail transit in the region. Hopefully by then they'll amalgamate transit systems while keeping the local knowledge secure.
 
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