Self-Driving Vehicles/Autonomous Vehicle Technology

[Tulse]

Just because a lot of people own their own vehicles today doesn't mean that these social shifts will not occur.

I think that, for a lot of people, if they aren't actually driving, the attraction of owning a car vs. merely calling one up shifts quite a bit. If you're driving, the car is an extension of you, and you car more about how it reflects your tastes and personality, so owning is important. But if you're just a passenger, you don't care as much about the kind of car your'e in (most people don't choose taxis based on paint scheme, for example), so I think personal ownership will drop quite a bit once people aren't driving.

 

[1overcosc]

The silver lining in Ontario's energy picture is that the power grid is very low- emission, although if we loaded up on electric cars our gas plants would run much more.
- Paul

Plus I imagine most EV owners would charge their cars overnight, when grid load is low and wind turbines generally have higher output.

 

[rbt]

I think it's naive to assume the future based on yesterday's or even today's current conditions. Just because a lot of people own their own vehicles today doesn't mean that these social shifts will not occur.

Sure, in 30 years far fewer people will own cars. Boomers, however, will continue to operate as they always have (just as their parents did when modern banking appeared), and will have 1 or 2 cars in their driveway for the next couple of decades.

The people in the best position to afford a luxury self-driving vehicle are also the most likely to purchase such a thing.

Long term it's a problem that solves itself (unless we figure out how to extend lives) but in the near-term the transition period could be very interesting. They'll aggressively vote down anybody who tries to take their vehicle away from them too.

 

[Red October]

I think that, for a lot of people, if they aren't actually driving, the attraction of owning a car vs. merely calling one up shifts quite a bit. If you're driving, the car is an extension of you, and you car more about how it reflects your tastes and personality, so owning is important. But if you're just a passenger, you don't care as much about the kind of car your'e in (most people don't choose taxis based on paint scheme, for example), so I think personal ownership will drop quite a bit once people aren't driving.

Not claiming I'm the majority or anything, but personally for me I enjoy the act of driving a car, but (almost) any car. I'm not interested in ownership but I do enjoy driving whenever I rent a vehicle, borrow a friend or family member's or use carshare. I don't see the car itself as an extension of me, just a tool through which I enjoy the act of driving. In fact, I prefer to "try out" as many different cars as possible because it's a different experience each time.

I do agree with you however that personal ownership would probably drop once AVs are common, because the view you described definitely does exist (about car ownership).

 

[rbt]

The youngest boomer in 30 years will be well into their nineties...

That would be why fewer people will own cars. They start dying or having their licenses revoked. Most people 35+ today in a suburban format home will continue to own a car, automated or not.

Given that Google's car has an actual drivers license (no longer just a learners permit), and they've partnered with Ford specifically for manufacturing; these problems are closer to 5 years from appearing in some locations if the vehicles are affordable (removing human controls offsets a lot of the added manufacturing costs for sensors).

 

[crs1026]

Hmmmm.... I must be part of the 'problem'. I can't imagine depending on sterile shared vehicles that I can't leave a ton of junk in. My vehicle has a very lived-in look. I can't imagine any of the families on our street coping without a car of their own either - too much gear to clean out each time.....kids' hockey equipment, baby strollers, bike racks, etc.

My spouse and I both own cars. We've tried going down to one, on the premise that it's cheaper to take the odd cab than have so much money sitting rusting in the driveway. It has never worked, conflicts in work schedules and needing to be places that are long cab rides away being the biggest sticking points. Hailable self-driving cars might be a better option - cabs are just too shabby and the drivers just too unusual for our comfort.

And where will I hide my spouse's Christmas presents if I don't have a trunk? Or the Hallowe'en candies?

- Paul

 

[mdrejhon]

Hmmmm.... I must be part of the 'problem'. I can't imagine depending on sterile shared vehicles that I can't leave a ton of junk in. My vehicle has a very lived-in look. I can't imagine any of the families on our street coping without a car of their own either - too much gear to clean out each time.....kids' hockey equipment, baby strollers, bike racks, etc.

My spouse and I both own cars. We've tried going down to one, on the premise that it's cheaper to take the odd cab than have so much money sitting rusting in the driveway. It has never worked, conflicts in work schedules and needing to be places that are long cab rides away being the biggest sticking points. Hailable self-driving cars might be a better option - cabs are just too shabby and the drivers just too unusual for our comfort.

And where will I hide my spouse's Christmas presents if I don't have a trunk? Or the Hallowe'en candies?

- Paul

Don't forget self driving cars will now drive themselves to maintenance.

- Self drive itself to oil changes
- Self drive itself to vomit cleaning service (and charged automatically to the perp!)
- Self drive itself to UberMaid services that will clean and keep forgotten stuff for you, before beginning hail service.

Don't worry. You will send your car away on its own to UberMaid. They will clean your car and store all your forgotten stuff for you when you opt your robot car on autonomous hail service, while you are away on vacation and need your car to pay its own car bill.

Hmmmm..... Ford Motors could earn big bucks taking 30% cut of all hail service, if they design the autonomous hail firmware and build it into ALL cars as an easily enabled optional opt-in service (which you can enable while you are at work, or vacation, or not using it, or jobless). You would keep 70% of all revenues, credited towards your car bill and towards your future car upgrade. Or Ford licenses a "Uber Robochauffer App" for installation into their cars and split the hail profits with Uber. When in Toronto? This tech could be ready by 2030s but might not be till be circa 2050-2070 before you trust this firmware to drive your kids unattended to school in the middle of a blinding snowstorm, WHILE having a few ice-damaged redundant sensors, AND right after the car dropped off a drunk hail who threatened to damage/vandalize your car. Need to be super smart software to account for these high risk edge cases, and finally approved by Transport Canada. Imagine!

 

[BMO]

Sure, in 30 years far fewer people will own cars. Boomers, however, will continue to operate as they always have (just as their parents did when modern banking appeared), and will have 1 or 2 cars in their driveway for the next couple of decades.

The people in the best position to afford a luxury self-driving vehicle are also the most likely to purchase such a thing.

Long term it's a problem that solves itself (unless we figure out how to extend lives) but in the near-term the transition period could be very interesting. They'll aggressively vote down anybody who tries to take their vehicle away from them too.

I don't know about that. People were saying it would take longer than 10 years before everyone would have an iPhone or smartphone and here we are only 9 years later and basically everyone has one (and only because we had crazy 3 yr contracts which slowed down adoption)! In 2011 BlackBerry was the best selling Smartphone. These things change quickly and baby boomers are way more accustomed to adapting to changes than their predecessors. Walk into any Apple store and you'll notice how old the crowd is. While technology is getting more sophisticated, it's also getting easier to use. People didn't trust smartphones knowing where they were at all times and now it seems like people have just accepted that loss of privacy. I'm predicting people will learn to accept the loss of control over their vehicle and diminishing need to own a vehicle much sooner than 30 yrs from now.

 

[rbt]

I don't know about that. People were saying it would take longer than 10 years before everyone would have an iPhone or smartphone and here we are only 9 years later and basically everyone has one (and only because we had crazy 3 yr contracts which slowed down adoption)!

Fair point, but changing the phone added to their lives. This is (in the United States at least) a tool that the generation associates with freedom. Many continue to spend more on their vehicles than their house (very uncommon in Canada). It's not even a tool with a use so much as a status symbol.

Nearly everybody could get from location A to B perfectly fine in a $15k vehicle but the average vehicle purchase price is closer to $35k; it's not millennials who will jump to at automation doing the bulk of the buying either.

The distance future (30+ years) is pretty clear. The transition period is going to be interesting.

 

[kEiThZ]

Automation has to go hand in hand with electrification. And on that front we're not making much progress. We don't even charging stations at the ON Routes. And we haven't even begun talking about mandating 200A service to all new construction and mandating 240V outlets in garages, for all new construction.

 

[BMO]

Automation has to go hand in hand with electrification. And on that front we're not making much progress. We don't even charging stations at the ON Routes. And we haven't even begun talking about mandating 200A service to all new construction and mandating 240V outlets in garages, for all new construction.

You don't really need electric cars. It would be a nice to have, but a lot of the autonomous vehicles being tested today are not electric. I think propulsion is probably that last thing holding back the technology. Developing the right sensors and computer software to do all that is required is probably a lot more imperative.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

HOW AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WILL FREE 15-20% OF UK LAND TO CREATE HEALTHIER TOWNS AND CITIES

http://www.wsp-pb.com/en/WSP-UK/Who...UK-land-to-create-healthier-towns-and-cities/

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Here's the full report. It has some interesting renders imagining how road design might change due to autonomous vehicles http://www.wsp-pb.com/Globaln/UK/WSPPB-Farrells-AV-whitepaper.pdf

 

[crs1026]

For what a sample of 1 is worth - I bought a new vehicle this past month and for a bunch of reasons I ordered the self-driving-ish options as they exist so far. This consists of adaptive cruise control (matches speed to the vehicle ahead, to maintain stopping distance), lane departure alarm, and detection of potential obstacles (people, cars, etc) in the path ahead. And some crash avoidance features that hopefully I will never trigger.
After two weeks' driving, I'm impressed at how well it works, but it's not foolproof. Today's rain was sufficient to disable it. And navigating the roadway past a left turning vehicle, where the route into the left turn lane is straight and the through route requires diverting to the right, consistently baffles it. It is very good at detecting that a vehicle has cut into the lane ahead of it. So, while it's useful, I would not trust it as a fully automatic system.
I will be curious to see whether the manufacturer offers an update in a couple of years (or whether they will try to sell new cars as the only way to get a software update!) Considering that the unit is modular, one would think that a Windows 8 -> Windows 10 type upgrade would be feasible some day.

- Paul

 

[Jonny5]

Interesting discussion kicks off here on the implications of widespread use of autonomous vehicles, especially the first few generations, with respect to morality, insurance, and regulation.

Autonomous cars are making decisions on such voluminous data, with so many variables in flux, it is already very difficult to understand why they choose to do what they do, especially where there are interactions between different modules of code.

What will happen in 5 years from now, or 30 years from now?

• Would you buy a vehicle that is programmed in an extreme situation to let the passengers die in a collision when it could save them, but would instead kill more people?
• Would your insurance company charge you significantly more for that privilege and would it be moral or legal to allow that?
  
• Would you be comfortable driving on the road where some people can afford to buy insurance to cover instances where the AI will act to protect the passengers from death, no matter the number of other deaths caused?
• Will governments be eventually forced to regulate a baseline code that directs all cars behave a specific way in dangerous scenarios?
• Will we not inevitably have customized hacked AIs for cars that operate beyond legal bounds? How do you detect that? Will RIDE checks be replaced with AIDE checks (AI Detection and Enforcement)?
  
• Which level of government regulates all this? Is it constitutionally ultra vires for the federal government to impose a law on autonomous driving on roads which are the responsibility of the provinces per the BNA? Will Ontario AI be illegal in Quebec? Will Canadian AI be illegal in the USA? Will Canada be forced to adopt USA AI regulations, no matter what they are?
• Will car AI be "leased" like other operating system software? Will you have to agree to a very long and complex EULA to use it and will that be rights restrictive to the consumer?
  
• Would you sign an agreement on purchase that the manufacturer of the car AI has zero liability?
  
• Will car AI have a monthly fee? Will you have to pay $5.99, $15.99, $99.99/month to use it?
• Will it be sunset or disabled after a certain period without a paid upgrade? Will your car AI stop working at that date?
• Will your AI warranty be void if you install third party driving apps instead of using the built in OEM apps?
• Will there be a car apps centre like Apple Music where if you buy an Apple driving AI car you can only listen to music they provide at their own monthly fee?
  
• Will there be viruses that infect car AI and cause deaths?
• Would you accept your cars AI history be stored in the cloud, accessible to government on a whim? Would you accept paying for that service so it could be transferred between vehicles? Would you accept paying $1,000 when buying a used vehicle and have your old car AI transferred to the new one?

Manufacturers, insurers, and governments will embrace car driving AI because it's a gold mine to extract cash from you. Cars with autonomous driving AI will be more expensive than what we have now. Everything will be licensed, leased, rented, and monthly billed by usage. You will not own anything. In the long run, it will cost you more than ever to drive.