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Roads: GTA West Corridor—Highway 413

Yes they will. How much did traffic drop last summer?

Will they do so with soaring fuel prices AND double digit inflation AND widespread joblessness AND volatile interest rates AND an auto industry in dire shape AND banks afraid to finance new subdivisions?

We only had half of the first one last summer.
 
Will they do so with soaring fuel prices AND double digit inflation AND widespread joblessness AND volatile interest rates AND an auto industry in dire shape AND banks afraid to finance new subdivisions?

We only had half of the first one last summer.

My you are a pessimistic fellow. Either that or you are so anti-car that you would wish economic hell on your fellow citizens just so another highway des not come to fruition. Thankfully, your economic dystopia will not come to pass. I have full confidence that the Bank of Canada would not allow the extreme stagflation you have described above come to pass. You'll note that inflation, interest rates and fuel prices have declined since the onset of the global economic crisis. And guess what, people are still driving. Moreover, SUV sales are back up in the US! Now, it's not that I think SUVs or people driving needlessly is a good thing but it's exactly views like yours that cause most of the general population to cringe when they think of trying to be eco-friendly. Your version of eco-friendly means making them go through hell.

How's this for an alternative? Build the highway. As our popultation grows so will industry, and they need more than buses and subways. Build bus lanes on it that facilitate faster travel for transit users. Invest in local transit to feed that RT network. Isn't that a little better than wishing high inflation, staggering job losses, interest rate volatility and tightened credit on your fellow countrymen?
 
My you are a pessimistic fellow. Either that or you are so anti-car that you would wish economic hell on your fellow citizens just so another highway des not come to fruition.
Don't ask me. Ask all the developers/homeowners/auto workers who are getting crushed. I'm not having a fantasy, though too many people are having fantasies that everything will return to normal after this crisis passes.

Thankfully, your economic dystopia will not come to pass. I have full confidence that the Bank of Canada would not allow the extreme stagflation you have described above come to pass.
What can the central bank of a small country do in the face of such a massive problem? We're looking at a Japanese-style bust worldwide, and that doesn't begin to address the supply of fossil fuel. Canada might be the least bad off place in the world.

You'll note that inflation, interest rates and fuel prices have declined since the onset of the global economic crisis.
God, people are short sighted. Where do you think this policy of Quantitative Easing end? The tools used by central banks have never been studied before, and anything is possible. Will this set off an inflationary monster which forces central banks to up interest rates during a deep recession? Who knows?

And guess what, people are still driving. Moreover, SUV sales are back up in the US!
Buying SUVs right now is like buying Lehman and AIG stock this time last year.

Now, it's not that I think SUVs or people driving needlessly is a good thing but it's exactly views like yours that cause most of the general population to cringe when they think of trying to be eco-friendly. Your version of eco-friendly means making them go through hell.
I'm not thinking of eco-friendly. We're going to see fundamental changes whether we like them or not. Politicians won't say this, which is understandable.

How's this for an alternative? Build the highway. As our popultation grows so will industry, and they need more than buses and subways. Build bus lanes on it that facilitate faster travel for transit users. Invest in local transit to feed that RT network.
If the province is serious about the Greenbelt, then this GTA West highway would be underused because it passes through nothing but farmland. Our population is not going to continue to grow forever; it will peak sooner than we think (it's already happening in Europe and parts of Asia). Is the Spadina Subway being extended to Acton next? It's hard to see any actual demand for the highway, and this could be the government equivalent of speculating on residential property.

Isn't that a little better than wishing high inflation, staggering job losses, interest rate volatility and tightened credit on your fellow countrymen?
Better to look at reality and plan for it, rather than be rudely surprised when you expect things to get "back to normal", don't you think?
 
Don't ask me. Ask all the developers/homeowners/auto workers who are getting crushed. I'm not having a fantasy, though too many people are having fantasies that everything will return to normal after this crisis passes.

It's a recession. There's going to be some folks bleeding. But that still does not prove your point that we are going to experience stagflation.

What can the central bank of a small country do in the face of such a massive problem? We're looking at a Japanese-style bust worldwide, and that doesn't begin to address the supply of fossil fuel. Canada might be the least bad off place in the world.

Exactly. Canada will come out on top because we have had sound fiscal and monetary policies. So you ask what can the central bank of a small country do? It can do whatever it takes to ensure that we are the least worst of the lot.

God, people are short sighted. Where do you think this policy of Quantitative Easing end? The tools used by central banks have never been studied before, and anything is possible. Will this set off an inflationary monster which forces central banks to up interest rates during a deep recession? Who knows?

And if things get worse, debating highway construction will be the least of our worries. You almost seem to root for a disaster in your posts. Sure there is uncertainty but it's a recession like every other one. We'll be in it for a few years and we'll come out. What will derail us is alarmist claptrap that erodes investor and consumer confidence.

Buying SUVs right now is like buying Lehman and AIG stock this time last year.

Didn't say I condone it. I pointed it out as a side effect of declining oil prices and a retort to your view that people aren't driving.

I'm not thinking of eco-friendly. We're going to see fundamental changes whether we like them or not. Politicians won't say this, which is understandable.
....
If the province is serious about the Greenbelt, then this GTA West highway would be underused because it passes through nothing but farmland. Our population is not going to continue to grow forever; it will peak sooner than we think (it's already happening in Europe and parts of Asia). Is the Spadina Subway being extended to Acton next? It's hard to see any actual demand for the highway, and this could be the government equivalent of speculating on residential property.

To me it's ridiculous to categorically rule it out at this stage. Looking through the presentation, it's clear that this highway is to be a reliever to the 401 which as per their figures will be packed west of Milton by 2031. I don't see how that's a problematic assessment. I don't see how it will really damage the greenbelt at all. That land is not going to be developed. So this highway will simply provide an alternative to the 401 for Guelph, Kitchener, Waterloo traffic. That's how I look at it. That may well be needed as the 401 becomes our local thoroughfare in Toronto.

As to your assertion that our population won't grow forever. Well that's just that, your assertion. None of our governments particularly the one that brings in hundreds of thousands of immigrants (a good chunk of whom are destined for the GTA) seems to think that. As long as there are income disparities in the world, folks will keep coming. Sure our population will peak at some point, but it ain't happening any time soon. Till then our government has to plan urban development so we can accomodate those folks.

From now on, let's stick to the topic of the highway. If you want to discuss your economic doom and gloom scenarios, take them to the appropriate thread and we can debate them there.
 
I'll leave out my economic thoughts since they're irrelevant. Anyways:

To me it's ridiculous to categorically rule it out at this stage. Looking through the presentation, it's clear that this highway is to be a reliever to the 401 which as per their figures will be packed west of Milton by 2031. I don't see how that's a problematic assessment.
The assumption that 401 will be pack west of Milton in 20 years depends on 1) a constant increase in population 2) a constant increase in economic growth 3) no significant changes to infrastructure 4) constant availability of cheap fuels. This is an incredible "Business As Usual" scenario which I'm afraid will be going fast.

So this highway will simply provide an alternative to the 401 for Guelph, Kitchener, Waterloo traffic. That's how I look at it. That may well be needed as the 401 becomes our local thoroughfare in Toronto.
The 401 will probably become the local throughfare through Toronto *but only in the part through Toronto*. Rush hour congestion in North York is irrelevant to commuters near Guelph (at least we hope!), and if the situation becomes bad then it will be cheaper for the province to buy back the 407, cancel the tolls, and use it (by then extended into Durham) as a bypass instead.

As to your assertion that our population won't grow forever. Well that's just that, your assertion. None of our governments particularly the one that brings in hundreds of thousands of immigrants (a good chunk of whom are destined for the GTA) seems to think that. As long as there are income disparities in the world, folks will keep coming. Sure our population will peak at some point, but it ain't happening any time soon. Till then our government has to plan urban development so we can accomodate those folks.
Immigration will decrease as conditions in Asia improve enough to convince the middle class that they no longer need to emigrate for a better life. Our governments will not allow millions of unskilled peasants to immigrate, for sure. Our natural population growth rate is approaching zero and will become negative very soon. It is already happening in much of Europe, and will come to the GTA within our careers. Long before then, however, population growth will have slowed enough that there may not be underlying demand for massive new subdivisions.

This is what I mean when I believe that massive new highways is the government equivalent of property speculation.

What will planners talk about when I'm an old geezer, who knows.
 
Immigration will decrease as conditions in Asia improve enough to convince the middle class that they no longer need to emigrate for a better life. Our governments will not allow millions of unskilled peasants to immigrate, for sure. Our natural population growth rate is approaching zero and will become negative very soon. It is already happening in much of Europe, and will come to the GTA within our careers. Long before then, however, population growth will have slowed enough that there may not be underlying demand for massive new subdivisions.

This is what I mean when I believe that massive new highways is the government equivalent of property speculation.

If that's the case, we should give up now. There's no need to build HSR or an electrified GO track. Our declining population should solve our problems.

The assumption that 401 will be packed west of Milton in 20 years depends on 1) a constant increase in population 2) a constant increase in economic growth 3) no significant changes to infrastructure 4) constant availability of cheap fuels. This is an incredible "Business As Usual" scenario which I'm afraid will be going fast.

Owing to the greenbelt, development will get expensive inside it. And some development will skip the belt to places like Guelph and Barrie. The authorities have to plan for that eventuality. As to the cheap fuels comment....let's sideline that to an economic thread.


The 401 will probably become the local throughfare through Toronto *but only in the part through Toronto*. Rush hour congestion in North York is irrelevant to commuters near Guelph (at least we hope!)...

As development occurs inside the greenbelt though, the 401 will be relied on locally more and more. It's happening in the western GTA already. Congestion in NY might not matter to somebody in Guelph but congestion in Mississauga might.


...and if the situation becomes bad then it will be cheaper for the province to buy back the 407, cancel the tolls, and use it (by then extended into Durham) as a bypass instead.

Given that 99 year contract, it's unlikely to be cheaper. Paying out the foregone revenues for decades to come would probably be a significant multiple of the cost of building a new expressway. If it's feasible though, it would certainly be a good idea.
 
If that's the case, we should give up now. There's no need to build HSR or an electrified GO track. Our declining population should solve our problems.

Yes, our population will stagnate. This is why we need to building megaprojects which will break the status quo. There is going to be a shift so it would make sense that there would be a similar shift in investment.

Owing to the greenbelt, development will get expensive inside it. And some development will skip the belt to places like Guelph and Barrie. The authorities have to plan for that eventuality. As to the cheap fuels comment....let's sideline that to an economic thread.

This is more reason not to build a new highway north of the 401. The cities on the edges of the grater golden horseshoe will begin intensifying, making public transit more viable and automobile ownership more expensive.

As development occurs inside the greenbelt though, the 401 will be relied on locally more and more. It's happening in the western GTA already. Congestion in NY might not matter to somebody in Guelph but congestion in Mississauga might.

If they are in a train, congestion shouldn't matter.

Given that 99 year contract, it's unlikely to be cheaper. Paying out the foregone revenues for decades to come would probably be a significant multiple of the cost of building a new expressway. If it's feasible though, it would certainly be a good idea.

There's a paradigm shift going on as we speak. Are we going to keep up, or be left behind.

What needs to be done:
1) Take out a loan to improve intercity rail systems for both passengers and freight, improve local public transit systems, and to invest in other infrastructure encourage telecommuting.
2) Improve Highways 7 and 6 from Kitchener to Guelph to 401 to QEW to take traffic off the 401.
3) Buy back the 427, use as Toronto bypass when completed.
4) Pay it all back by tolling the 401, 427, and the municipal expressways

Done
 
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Yes, our population will stagnate. This is why we need to building megaprojects which will break the status quo. There is going to be a shift so it would make sense that there would be a similar shift in investment.

If our population stagnates or declines, then MO2020 would be a waste of cash. A lot of MO2020s business cases are based on increasing population and economic activity. This highway is no different. Please read the report before commenting.


This is more reason not to build a new highway north of the 401. The cities on the edges of the grater golden horseshoe will begin intensifying, making public transit more viable and automobile ownership more expensive.

Metrolinx's own projections show that there will be some congestion even beyond the 25 year plan. In the west end of the GTAH the 401 and 407 are extremely close (and end up meeting) meaning there's really only the 401 that's used as a thoroughfare. Like it or not there's going to be congestion on that highway that will effect the productivity of cities outside the greenbelt. That's why they want the highway. See their comments on truck traffic in the report.


If they are in a train, congestion shouldn't matter.

And how do you plan on moving goods? It should be noted too, that the corridor has the option of building in rail to connect the south-west and north-west.


There's a paradigm shift going on as we speak. Are we going to keep up, or be left behind.

I don't buy that at all. We've done fine until now. We need to accomodate for population growth and that's why Metrolinx is in place. But that's no paragdigm shift. That's merely catching us up to the level of investment we should have had in infrastructure.


1) Take out a loan to improve intercity rail systems for both passengers and freight, improve local public transit systems, and to invest in other infrastructure encourage telecommuting.

Given that VIA, GO, etc. don't break even it'd be kind a hard for them to get alone. If you are advocating that we should regularly run deficits to build that infrastructure, I think you'll find the public and politicians to be rather intolerant of the idea, because the payback of the built infrastructure would largely accrue to the private individual and the corporate sector, the cost of the service would increase (due to our subsidies) reducing government's flexibility in other areas, and the on top of it all the government would be stuck with the tab for building the service. No thanks. I think Metrolinx's incremental approach is more than appropriate.

2) Improve Highways 7 and 6 from Kitchener to Guelph to 401 to QEW to take traffic off the 401.

I think that's being done.....but the QEW is going to be just as crowded in the years to come as well.

3) Buy back the 427, use as Toronto bypass when completed.
4) Pay it all back by tolling the 401, 427, and the municipal expressways

Easier said than done. There aren't too many places that toll ALL their expressways in the region. Find me one. You want public opposition to any progress? That's a surefire plan right there.
 
Regardless, getting people out of their cars is important, yes? I'm not denying that more highway infrastructure needs to be built, but rail something that the MTO has neglected for an incredibly long time with its love affair with cars.

The underlying problem is that CN and CP own the track, and have freight priority on it. It is also single track in numerous areas, forcing passenger trains to wait on a siding while another train passes.

If we can get passenger frequencies up to an hour or better on both the CN/GEXR north mainline and the CP Galt sub, and make the trip faster than a car, I have no doubt this will help relieve congestion on the 401. Expanding rail capacity will also remove some trucks from the road.

Wouldn't a new highway north of the 407 just dump more Toronto bound traffic onto the 427?

And as for tolls, here's a system Toronto should consider emulating:
Traffic Congestion: The Stockholm Solution
 
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Regardless, getting people out of their cars is important, yes? I'm not denying that more highway infrastructure needs to be built, but rail something that the MTO has neglected for an incredibly long time with its love affair with cars.

The underlying problem is that CN and CP own the track, and have freight priority on it. It is also single track in numerous areas, forcing passenger trains to wait on a siding while another train passes.

If we can get passenger frequencies up to an hour or better on both the CN/GEXR north mainline and the CP Galt sub, and make the trip faster than a car, I have no doubt this will help relieve congestion on the 401. Expanding rail capacity will also remove some trucks from the road.

Wouldn't a new highway north of the 407 just dump more Toronto bound traffic onto the 427?

Again, I don't dispute that more needs to be done with rail. But from what i saw in the documents, it's clear that this highway is not directed at commuters. It's meant to provide largely a truck bypass to the north of the GTA and a link to Simcoe county. Now, I don't know if demand warrants it. If it does then why rule it out?

As for building rail for cargo, the problem with that is that CN or CP has to be willing to run the service. If they aren't, then trucks will be putting to the road.

And as for tolls, here's a system Toronto should consider emulating:
Traffic Congestion: The Stockholm Solution

Tolls, are however, largely aimed at urban cores. It's not like London slapped on a congestion charge on it's ring roads. I am not against congestion charges and I'd like to see one on the Gardiner, for example. But I don't think it'll be very effective or feasible to slap on a congestion charge on every E-W highway through the GTA.
 
Again, I don't dispute that more needs to be done with rail. But from what i saw in the documents, it's clear that this highway is not directed at commuters. It's meant to provide largely a truck bypass to the north of the GTA and a link to Simcoe county. Now, I don't know if demand warrants it. If it does then why rule it out?
It could be intended as a truck bypass, but unless personal cars are banned from the highway it will inevitably turn into yet another vector for sprawl and require more widening to accommodate the traffic and turn into yet another money pit.

As for building rail for cargo, the problem with that is that CN or CP has to be willing to run the service. If they aren't, then trucks will be putting to the road.
Most long haul freight on the continent is already by rail. How more freight can be shifted onto the tracks, is not something we know.


Tolls, are however, largely aimed at urban cores. It's not like London slapped on a congestion charge on it's ring roads. I am not against congestion charges and I'd like to see one on the Gardiner, for example. But I don't think it'll be very effective or feasible to slap on a congestion charge on every E-W highway through the GTA.
I agree here. Simply tolling the highways will mean people will move to parallel suburban arterials which are free at the point of use. A smarter solution would be to tax parking space according to density or transit availability or a similar matrix, which would make developers think twice before devoting valuable land to pavement.
 

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