urbanfan89
Active Member
If you build it, they will come.
But will they come if the price of fuel spirals upwards again?
If you build it, they will come.
But will they come if the price of fuel spirals upwards again?
Yes they will. How much did traffic drop last summer?
Will they do so with soaring fuel prices AND double digit inflation AND widespread joblessness AND volatile interest rates AND an auto industry in dire shape AND banks afraid to finance new subdivisions?
We only had half of the first one last summer.
Don't ask me. Ask all the developers/homeowners/auto workers who are getting crushed. I'm not having a fantasy, though too many people are having fantasies that everything will return to normal after this crisis passes.My you are a pessimistic fellow. Either that or you are so anti-car that you would wish economic hell on your fellow citizens just so another highway des not come to fruition.
What can the central bank of a small country do in the face of such a massive problem? We're looking at a Japanese-style bust worldwide, and that doesn't begin to address the supply of fossil fuel. Canada might be the least bad off place in the world.Thankfully, your economic dystopia will not come to pass. I have full confidence that the Bank of Canada would not allow the extreme stagflation you have described above come to pass.
God, people are short sighted. Where do you think this policy of Quantitative Easing end? The tools used by central banks have never been studied before, and anything is possible. Will this set off an inflationary monster which forces central banks to up interest rates during a deep recession? Who knows?You'll note that inflation, interest rates and fuel prices have declined since the onset of the global economic crisis.
Buying SUVs right now is like buying Lehman and AIG stock this time last year.And guess what, people are still driving. Moreover, SUV sales are back up in the US!
I'm not thinking of eco-friendly. We're going to see fundamental changes whether we like them or not. Politicians won't say this, which is understandable.Now, it's not that I think SUVs or people driving needlessly is a good thing but it's exactly views like yours that cause most of the general population to cringe when they think of trying to be eco-friendly. Your version of eco-friendly means making them go through hell.
If the province is serious about the Greenbelt, then this GTA West highway would be underused because it passes through nothing but farmland. Our population is not going to continue to grow forever; it will peak sooner than we think (it's already happening in Europe and parts of Asia). Is the Spadina Subway being extended to Acton next? It's hard to see any actual demand for the highway, and this could be the government equivalent of speculating on residential property.How's this for an alternative? Build the highway. As our popultation grows so will industry, and they need more than buses and subways. Build bus lanes on it that facilitate faster travel for transit users. Invest in local transit to feed that RT network.
Better to look at reality and plan for it, rather than be rudely surprised when you expect things to get "back to normal", don't you think?Isn't that a little better than wishing high inflation, staggering job losses, interest rate volatility and tightened credit on your fellow countrymen?
Don't ask me. Ask all the developers/homeowners/auto workers who are getting crushed. I'm not having a fantasy, though too many people are having fantasies that everything will return to normal after this crisis passes.
What can the central bank of a small country do in the face of such a massive problem? We're looking at a Japanese-style bust worldwide, and that doesn't begin to address the supply of fossil fuel. Canada might be the least bad off place in the world.
God, people are short sighted. Where do you think this policy of Quantitative Easing end? The tools used by central banks have never been studied before, and anything is possible. Will this set off an inflationary monster which forces central banks to up interest rates during a deep recession? Who knows?
Buying SUVs right now is like buying Lehman and AIG stock this time last year.
I'm not thinking of eco-friendly. We're going to see fundamental changes whether we like them or not. Politicians won't say this, which is understandable.
....
If the province is serious about the Greenbelt, then this GTA West highway would be underused because it passes through nothing but farmland. Our population is not going to continue to grow forever; it will peak sooner than we think (it's already happening in Europe and parts of Asia). Is the Spadina Subway being extended to Acton next? It's hard to see any actual demand for the highway, and this could be the government equivalent of speculating on residential property.
The assumption that 401 will be pack west of Milton in 20 years depends on 1) a constant increase in population 2) a constant increase in economic growth 3) no significant changes to infrastructure 4) constant availability of cheap fuels. This is an incredible "Business As Usual" scenario which I'm afraid will be going fast.To me it's ridiculous to categorically rule it out at this stage. Looking through the presentation, it's clear that this highway is to be a reliever to the 401 which as per their figures will be packed west of Milton by 2031. I don't see how that's a problematic assessment.
The 401 will probably become the local throughfare through Toronto *but only in the part through Toronto*. Rush hour congestion in North York is irrelevant to commuters near Guelph (at least we hope!), and if the situation becomes bad then it will be cheaper for the province to buy back the 407, cancel the tolls, and use it (by then extended into Durham) as a bypass instead.So this highway will simply provide an alternative to the 401 for Guelph, Kitchener, Waterloo traffic. That's how I look at it. That may well be needed as the 401 becomes our local thoroughfare in Toronto.
Immigration will decrease as conditions in Asia improve enough to convince the middle class that they no longer need to emigrate for a better life. Our governments will not allow millions of unskilled peasants to immigrate, for sure. Our natural population growth rate is approaching zero and will become negative very soon. It is already happening in much of Europe, and will come to the GTA within our careers. Long before then, however, population growth will have slowed enough that there may not be underlying demand for massive new subdivisions.As to your assertion that our population won't grow forever. Well that's just that, your assertion. None of our governments particularly the one that brings in hundreds of thousands of immigrants (a good chunk of whom are destined for the GTA) seems to think that. As long as there are income disparities in the world, folks will keep coming. Sure our population will peak at some point, but it ain't happening any time soon. Till then our government has to plan urban development so we can accomodate those folks.
Immigration will decrease as conditions in Asia improve enough to convince the middle class that they no longer need to emigrate for a better life. Our governments will not allow millions of unskilled peasants to immigrate, for sure. Our natural population growth rate is approaching zero and will become negative very soon. It is already happening in much of Europe, and will come to the GTA within our careers. Long before then, however, population growth will have slowed enough that there may not be underlying demand for massive new subdivisions.
This is what I mean when I believe that massive new highways is the government equivalent of property speculation.
The assumption that 401 will be packed west of Milton in 20 years depends on 1) a constant increase in population 2) a constant increase in economic growth 3) no significant changes to infrastructure 4) constant availability of cheap fuels. This is an incredible "Business As Usual" scenario which I'm afraid will be going fast.
The 401 will probably become the local throughfare through Toronto *but only in the part through Toronto*. Rush hour congestion in North York is irrelevant to commuters near Guelph (at least we hope!)...
...and if the situation becomes bad then it will be cheaper for the province to buy back the 407, cancel the tolls, and use it (by then extended into Durham) as a bypass instead.
If that's the case, we should give up now. There's no need to build HSR or an electrified GO track. Our declining population should solve our problems.
Owing to the greenbelt, development will get expensive inside it. And some development will skip the belt to places like Guelph and Barrie. The authorities have to plan for that eventuality. As to the cheap fuels comment....let's sideline that to an economic thread.
As development occurs inside the greenbelt though, the 401 will be relied on locally more and more. It's happening in the western GTA already. Congestion in NY might not matter to somebody in Guelph but congestion in Mississauga might.
Given that 99 year contract, it's unlikely to be cheaper. Paying out the foregone revenues for decades to come would probably be a significant multiple of the cost of building a new expressway. If it's feasible though, it would certainly be a good idea.
Yes, our population will stagnate. This is why we need to building megaprojects which will break the status quo. There is going to be a shift so it would make sense that there would be a similar shift in investment.
This is more reason not to build a new highway north of the 401. The cities on the edges of the grater golden horseshoe will begin intensifying, making public transit more viable and automobile ownership more expensive.
If they are in a train, congestion shouldn't matter.
There's a paradigm shift going on as we speak. Are we going to keep up, or be left behind.
1) Take out a loan to improve intercity rail systems for both passengers and freight, improve local public transit systems, and to invest in other infrastructure encourage telecommuting.
2) Improve Highways 7 and 6 from Kitchener to Guelph to 401 to QEW to take traffic off the 401.
3) Buy back the 427, use as Toronto bypass when completed.
4) Pay it all back by tolling the 401, 427, and the municipal expressways
Regardless, getting people out of their cars is important, yes? I'm not denying that more highway infrastructure needs to be built, but rail something that the MTO has neglected for an incredibly long time with its love affair with cars.
The underlying problem is that CN and CP own the track, and have freight priority on it. It is also single track in numerous areas, forcing passenger trains to wait on a siding while another train passes.
If we can get passenger frequencies up to an hour or better on both the CN/GEXR north mainline and the CP Galt sub, and make the trip faster than a car, I have no doubt this will help relieve congestion on the 401. Expanding rail capacity will also remove some trucks from the road.
Wouldn't a new highway north of the 407 just dump more Toronto bound traffic onto the 427?
And as for tolls, here's a system Toronto should consider emulating:
Traffic Congestion: The Stockholm Solution
It could be intended as a truck bypass, but unless personal cars are banned from the highway it will inevitably turn into yet another vector for sprawl and require more widening to accommodate the traffic and turn into yet another money pit.Again, I don't dispute that more needs to be done with rail. But from what i saw in the documents, it's clear that this highway is not directed at commuters. It's meant to provide largely a truck bypass to the north of the GTA and a link to Simcoe county. Now, I don't know if demand warrants it. If it does then why rule it out?
Most long haul freight on the continent is already by rail. How more freight can be shifted onto the tracks, is not something we know.As for building rail for cargo, the problem with that is that CN or CP has to be willing to run the service. If they aren't, then trucks will be putting to the road.
I agree here. Simply tolling the highways will mean people will move to parallel suburban arterials which are free at the point of use. A smarter solution would be to tax parking space according to density or transit availability or a similar matrix, which would make developers think twice before devoting valuable land to pavement.Tolls, are however, largely aimed at urban cores. It's not like London slapped on a congestion charge on it's ring roads. I am not against congestion charges and I'd like to see one on the Gardiner, for example. But I don't think it'll be very effective or feasible to slap on a congestion charge on every E-W highway through the GTA.