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GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

Would a ferry from Niagara region to Toronto work in the summer months? Maybe a bus could take people to Niagara on the lake, Niagara falls, and on winery tours. Taking a boat could be more pleasant and possibly faster than driving? Doesn't seem that crazy to me.
 
There have been several attempts at operating a ferry between St. Catharines or Niagara-on-the-Lake and Toronto. The Shaker Ferry operated a hydrofoil in the 1990s.

The Niagara, St. Catharines and Toronto Railway operated a ferry service between Port Dalhousie (where connections were made to local streetcars to St. Catharines and interurbans to Niagara Falls and Port Colborne) that lasted until the 1950s. That service largely relied on summer excursions; increasing car ownership, the completion of the Queen Elizabeth Way, and the abandonment of the NS&T streetcars and interurbans made it redundant. The lakeside park at Port Dalhousie (with the historic carousel) is all that's left.

A commuter ferry terminal would require parking, bus connections (the NS&T rights of way have mostly disappeared) and capital.
 
A commuter ferry terminal would require parking, bus connections (the NS&T rights of way have mostly disappeared) and capital.

You forgot the most important thing - ridership. And I'm not convinced that there are enough people travelling on a daily or almost-daily basis from St. Catharines or Niagara Falls to Toronto to justify it.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 
Ferries work well when the alternate highway and rail connections are drastically worse. That simply isn't the case with St. Catharines. The QEW is almost always going to be a better bet than a ferry that you could (a) miss and (b) get sick on in rough waters. At a difference of 100km on road, or 50km at sea, it's hard to see when the sea route makes sense.

If, say, Coburg were a major destination city, and the south side of Lake Ontario were also Canadian (getting rid of border issues), then you could reasonably suggest a ferry from Coburg to Rochester. That would be a 100km boat ride, as opposed to 350km going the long way around. That offers time savings, even with waiting for a ferry.
 
There is that little issue with ice in the winter too. Myself, I think that direct St Catharines - Toronto route just screams trebuchet.
 
You forgot the most important thing - ridership. And I'm not convinced that there are enough people travelling on a daily or almost-daily basis from St. Catharines or Niagara Falls to Toronto to justify it.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

Indeed. I'm not convinced that there are enough people travelling on a daily or regular basis to Toronto justify extending 12-car GO Train service there either, especially if it's going to be slower than the bus+rail connection via Burlington. GO should run more express buses to Burlington, perhaps from the Downtown St. Catharines Terminal, first.

At least extending GO Train service to St. Catharines requires little capital investment, unlike a ferry service. A bare-bones place to store trains overnight (the yard at Merritton?), a train set or two that could be easily used elsewhere; perhaps improvements to the loading platform and parking lot at St. Catharines Station. Optional add on: upgrades at the existing Grimsby VIA station (preferable as it will have walk-up access), or a new station at Casablanca Boulevard (if you're going to do that, it better have local transit access).
 
Indeed. I'm not convinced that there are enough people travelling on a daily or regular basis to Toronto justify extending 12-car GO Train service there either, especially if it's going to be slower than the bus+rail connection via Burlington. GO should run more express buses to Burlington, perhaps from the Downtown St. Catharines Terminal, first.

Was it on this thread that someone suggested that the diesel UPX trains may just be replaced by electric units once electrification is complete, and that Metrolinx could repurpose the current trains to a shuttle service between Niagara and West Harbour GO (stops in Niagara, St. Catharines, Beamsville, Grimsby, Centennial, West Harbour)? I imagine there might be enough commuting into Hamilton to justify that perhaps? They can then connect to RER service.
 
So I think this is where you have to rationalize downtown vs. West Harbour, as mdrejhon alluded to. Does the work involved with the Hunter Street tunnel make sense when it's easier to expand service along the Grimsby sub, and continue on to Niagara Falls? It's one big factor West Harbour has going for it.

Oh no doubt that it's easier to service (GO-wise) West Harbour than Hamilton Centre. My argument however is based on local transit connections and station location.
 
Any water service from eastern Niagara would have to be a Metrolinx undertaking with the local authorities, I think, integrated to the network and with buses making the additional connections required. The earlier attempts didn't have the Metrolinx structure to lean on. On a ridership per million dollars spent I bet it would do better than UPX :)

As for Niagara shuttle, without the billion+ dropped to create the Welland Canal tunnel I don't see how the shuttle doesn't spend a good deal of its time waiting for an opportunity to cross.
 
Indeed. I'm not convinced that there are enough people travelling on a daily or regular basis to Toronto justify extending 12-car GO Train service there either, especially if it's going to be slower than the bus+rail connection via Burlington. GO should run more express buses to Burlington, perhaps from the Downtown St. Catharines Terminal, first.

At least extending GO Train service to St. Catharines requires little capital investment, unlike a ferry service. A bare-bones place to store trains overnight (the yard at Merritton?), a train set or two that could be easily used elsewhere; perhaps improvements to the loading platform and parking lot at St. Catharines Station. Optional add on: upgrades at the existing Grimsby VIA station (preferable as it will have walk-up access), or a new station at Casablanca Boulevard (if you're going to do that, it better have local transit access).

Except that the point of a service to St Catharines isn't allowing people to commute to Toronto, methinks. A lot of people commute to Hamilton from the Niagara Peninsula, and this (in concert with HSR improvements to West Harbour including the future LRT) will draw quite a few of them out of their cars - and potentially preclude the costs of further expanding of the QEW.

But will the ridershipt be enough to justify the service? Will it make a different to traffic levels? I guess that's the million-dollar question.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 
Lakeshore East Line Reminder: We're running hourly GO Train service between Pickering and Oshawa again this weekend to continue with the construction work for the future South Blair Street underpass. Starting this evening after 7 p.m., until the last service on Sunday, November 29th, eastbound trains leaving from Union Station at 48 or 43 minutes after the hour will travel as far as Pickering, while the ones scheduled to depart at 13 minutes past the hour will continue on, making all stops to Oshawa. Our westbound trains that are schedule to leave from Oshawa at 38 or 41 minutes after the hour will operate as usual; however, all other westbound trips that normally leave from Oshawa at 11 minutes after the hour, will start out of Pickering at 30 minutes after the hour. For more details about this project and to check out your schedule before you travel, please see the Schedules Changes page on our website at www.gotransit.com.
 
Indeed. I'm not convinced that there are enough people travelling on a daily or regular basis to Toronto justify extending 12-car GO Train service there either, especially if it's going to be slower than the bus+rail connection via Burlington. GO should run more express buses to Burlington, perhaps from the Downtown St. Catharines Terminal, first.
This is currently true now but may not be true in future.

Also, there is the Niagara Express service concept that is also being talked about: Separate Niagara-Hamilton trains (Smaller), and Hamilton-Toronto trains (GO RER Hamilton), using West Harbour as a potential transfer station.

I wrote a large article on RaiseTheHammer about getting Niagara Seasonal GO trains to stop at West Harbour GO;
  • The $150-$200M fund for Centennial Parkway GO extension (construction begins 2017, completes 2019) will speed up the railroad speed between West Harbour GO and Centennial Parkway GO, as it includes parallel track between the stations.
    NOTE: In the media, numbers quoted: The "$1bn" number is LRT-only, and the "$1.2bn" number is the Metrolinx-confirmed combined number for LRT plus the cost of the Centennial Parkway GO extension + station. In addition, previous reports have used the $150M quote for the expansion to Hamilton GO infrastructure which is consistent with these numbers (of which only $35M is the actual station itself; most of the rest is new railroad in Hamilton between West Harbour and Centennial Parkway).

  • I was surprised (during a straw poll that I did) saying we have a lot of commuters between Hamilton and Niagara area really wanting GO service

  • Theoretically catching the Niagara Seasonal Service at West Harbour GO is actually very competitive (and sometimes faster than) driving

  • The Lewis Road GO Layover Facility that is being built, puts an impetus on Metrolinx to improve the LW3 infrastructure over the next decade or two (LW3 refers the section between Aldershot and Grimsby).

  • There is talk of a QEW widening. The startup of good regular GO service would relieve this pressure, and possibly eliminate the need for widening the freeway.

  • You know....the controversial idea of LINC extension to Niagara Falls (ugh!) There is talk of a mid-pennisula freeway that still crops up from time to time. I'd rather have allday GO to Niagara Falls in less than 25 years. As soon as economic case made sense.
At Niagara Falls I have seen about 700 people board/disembark a single Niagara Seasonal train on a weekend -- if this service continues to grow and new destinations get added on the route (Hamilton would instantly gain all-day 2-way weekend service: Niagara-Hamilton, Hamilton-Niagara, Toronto-Hamilton, Hamilton-Toronto). St. Catharines would be also a destination too for Hamiltonian as well. The 16 seasonal trains per weekend is 8 trains towards Toronto, 8 trains towards Niagara, spaced out every few hours all weekend long from Friday night to Sunday night. Ultimately, I see much more boardings/disembarks for Niagara Seasonal GO Trains at West Harbour GO than at Oakville GO (after a familiarity ramp-up period). West Harbour GO is just 10-15 minute walking distance of the downtown core and attracts much much bigger pedestrian population than Oakville GO. And West Harbour will have LRT service, while Oakville does not.

This would change the transit math and economic case for St. Catharines.

There is a lot of demand by Hamiltonians to benefit from the mere excitement of gaining all-day 2-way weekend GO train service on the entire Golden Horsehoe Lakeshore. If this is successful in adding a very low-cost enhancement (the low incremental cost move of simply getting the train to stop at West Harbour), there will be gradually increasing demand for eventual weekday commuter service. Let's consider, Downtown Hamilton is destined to get far better rapid transit connections (LRT, allday GO) in the next 10 years than Niagara Falls, and this is, in my opinion, an upcoming potentially dramatic disruption in transit projections of a Niagara GO train viability.

If RER service is eventually extended one day to West Harbour GO (e.g. RER Phase 2 during 2025-2035), then we could have a separate smaller efficient "Niagara Express" train, using West Harbour GO as a transfer station. The 15-min RER service would be immune to train delays at Welland Canal as a result, and the transfer time between two trains ("Niagara Express" Niagara-Hamilton and "GO RER" Hamilton-Toronto) would be no more than 15 minutes. Obviously, this requires that rail-rail grade separation between Aldershot and West Harbour, for full freight separation -- this is probably not something that will happen anytime soon. But from a generational long-term planning perspective, it could makes sense in the LRT era.

Certainly, it warrants a re-evaluation of the economic case of commuter service to St. Catharines/Niagara -- once the low incremental cost of getting Niagara Seasonals to stop in Hamilton is done -- and evaluating whatever increases from Hamilton being part of the Niagara route over the years -- as a result of Niagara route becoming a "3-major-downtowns" 2-way route. (potentially as early as 2016 simply by stopping an existing train!)

The economic answer could potentially be clearly apparent in less than 5 years, especially if the Niagara Seasonals stop in Hamilton by September 2016 schedule change (my current working guesstimate projection; rumor is things are waiting on CN) and allowing for a few years of familiarity ramp up period and reassignment of services (e.g. decrease in Hamilton 16 Express frequency during Niagara Seasonal weekends). It's worth noting that Union-to-passing-West Harbour typically takes less than an hour with the Niagara seasonal train -- faster than the 1h15min regular commuter trains to West Harbour, bringing it into territory competitive with the express GO buses.. The subsequent steps to do daily commuter would be more costly (infrastructural...) but this is a great initial opportunity to study the extent of ridership estimate disruption of adding the West Harbour GO stop.
 
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But will the ridershipt be enough to justify the service? Will it make a different to traffic levels? I guess that's the million-dollar question.

It seems likely that GO service would collect enough passengers for Hamilton to pay the immediate fuel and labour costs, for the St C to Hamilton leg. That train will be on hand anyway, and will fill up between Hamilton and Burlington, for an express trip to Union, so arguably the extension need only pay for the incremental expense. I don't know anyone who *loves* the trip over the Skyway to park at Aldershot....if the track speeds are raised through Hamilton, GO would get part of this business also.

I know a LOT of people who live in Niagara (Beamsville, Grimsby, etc) and work in Toronto. Nobody likes driving....they do it only because the commuter connections aren't quite good enough. Even price isn't an obstacle, within certain limits. I would think the case for commuting to Hamilton would be good also.

- Paul
 

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