Honestly, they will be doing their own analysis. Their plan is to run this thing at a profit (which, as a publicly owned asset, I don't mind), so let's look at some numbers
The Capital investment is $456M
Assuming they want to pay off the capital in 20 years, they need to pay $22.8M / year, or $63K /day.
Pearson has 36M passengers a year, or 100K /day.
They seem to expect to carry ~5000 passengers a day, or 5% of all people flying in/out of Pearson.
That works out to about 50 passengers per train, assuming 12 productive hours of train service a day, 4 trips an hour, both directions.
Dividing $63K by 5000 passengers
That means a $12.65 fare, to cover the Capital expense amortization alone.
Add on to this:
Operating expenses (???)
GTAA parking fee ($1.85)
If operating expenses work out to ~$5 per passenger ($9M/year in salaries, maintenance, fuel), then that gives a final, break-even fare of:
$19.50
Wow, it's almost like they already did this calculation when they estimated that the fare would be "$20-$30".
If you want a lower fare, you need to increase the number of passengers to match. A halving of the fare means a doubling of passengers. $10 fare means 10,000 passengers, or 10% of travelers. What % of all airport traffic does one think is possible to capture by this service?
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