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Final poll before election

C

cacruden

Guest
This is a link to the final poll done by Ipsos-Reid, before the election.

Ipsos Poll

Conservatives (38%, +1 Point) Hold 12-Point Lead Over Liberals (26%, -3 Points), While NDP (19%, +1 Point) And Green Party (5%, Unchanged) Remain Static
In Quebec: Bloc Quebecois (46%, +3 Points), Conservatives (27%, +6 Points) And Liberals (14%, -10 Points)
Seat Projection Model: Conservatives 143-147, Liberals 59-63, NDP 39-43, And Bloc Quebecois 59-63
 
My prediction: the NDP won't get that many seats. The Liberals will get more. It will be a sizeable Conservative minority.
 
If it ends in a strong minority, I will be happy. It will allow the Conservatives to negotiate on a bill by bill basis with any ONE of the three opposition parties.
 
I think it will come down to the Conservatives having to work with the Bloc.

Prepare for the worst parliament in history...
 
...when the Bloc will finally break through, run candidates outside Quebec, and coast to a majority, after which it will promptly separate the rest of Canada from Quebec, paving the way for a Liberal majority in 2011.
 
and back to the polls in June 2007.
Click to expand...

Please keep in mind we have a municipal election in late 2006 and a provincial election in Nov 2007.
 
That wont mean much. They wont hold an election at the same time, but what is going on in municipal and provincial politics wont have much effect on when a federal election is called.
 
The safest prediction of all is that we won't have another election for at least two years, more likely three. The Liberals will be in the middle of a leadership campaign and general rebuilding, and are reported to be heavily in debt. The Bloc will never do better, and would not want to jeopardize their gains. In addition, *any* party which is perceived to be provoking another election so soon will really be risking the wrath of the voters. People now want to get on with the nation's business.

I predict two years of the Conservatives getting maybe not all but most of their program through, with help issue-by-issue from one or more of the other parties.
 
I'm not so sure. When the Conservatives inevitably try to push through things that they haven't campaigned on (and they really haven't campaigned on anything), Canadians might get peeved.
 
When the Conservatives inevitably try to push through things that they haven't campaigned on (and they really haven't campaigned on anything), Canadians might get peeved.
Click to expand...

Actually, I expect the government to last 3+ years at least.

The first and only social issue that will take centre stage will be the free-vote on same-sex marriage. I expect that with a minority or small majority -- this issue will fail to get enough votes. Most of the liberals that would have voted with the Conservatives -- would likely have lost to Conservative MPs. There will be a sizeable minority of Conservative MPs that would vote to re-open it. That issue will then be dead for that parliament (early). Other social issues such as abortion -- will not see a vote. With the social conservative issues off the table -- the Conservatives would build a reputation of being mainstream on social issues. Fear mongering will then fail on future elections.

So what issues could lurk below the surface that would be "worth bringing down the government on" .... I can only think of one ..... If they pursued NAFTA/CAFTA plus. The only problem here is that if this came up -- the liberals would rail against it -- but internally they would be split on the issue. The NDP would be against it. Bloc Quebecois though would most likely support it. This issue would not likely be pursued for at least 2 years -- post-Bush.

So unless the Conservatives have a "Liberal like" scandal.... the government is in power for a while.
 
There's absolutely nothing to stop a private members bill on abortion, and the Conservatives can't afford to upset their base by using party discipline to shut it down. So, expect a free vote.
 
There's absolutely nothing to stop a private members bill on abortion, and the Conservatives can't afford to upset their base by using party discipline to shut it down. So, expect a free vote.
Click to expand...

I disagree here, Harper has said that he would do everything in his power to shut it down. I am sure they lost a few people to the CHP, but c'est la vie. Even if it made it to a free vote, you would probable see 50%+ of the Conservatives vote to shut it down.
 
Harper has said that he would do everything in his power to shut it down.
Click to expand...

Politicians say a lot of things during elections. This is not unique to the Liberals either. The Conservatives, the Bloc, NDP, everyone. What Harper says during the election is almost irrelevant to what may actually take place if he is elected into office.
 
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