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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Hopkins123 said:
What the Conservatives even did that was so unforgivable baffles the mind. Tory, Hudak, Brown... how many generations of leaders later is the party still going to be punished, meanwhile the Liberals get away with their schemes and crimes? It's like some people cannot see the forest for the trees. Change in government can be a good thing.
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Cutting social assistance rates by 21% comes to mind. Hudak proposed to further reduce the size of government while Ontario has among the lowest public spending per capita, and Brown, well, who knows what he wants? In any event, as a gay man, there is no way that I will vote for a party that accepts social conservative candidates.
 
Interesting and thorough summary of Ontario's energy woes on Reddit. A complete mess, with the top few scoops and cherry on top added by the Liberals.

Also an interesting note regarding potential energy shortages down the road.

T9C-gars said:
It's awful, isn't it? Just God awful. And everyone wishes the decision could be taken back (This is one of the main reasons for the change of attitude across the country when it comes to privatization... People don't want to hear anything more about privatization after the Ontario fiasco).

And it didn't have to be this way. One fuck-up after another.

  • The construction of the Darlington Nuclear Plant in 1993 came in waaaaaay overbudget. Premier Bob Rae (NDP) froze hydro rates for under-cost. But by 1999, the rate freeze caused a $38.1 billion debt (1/3 of the Ontario's debt at the time!!).

  • Premier Mike Harris (PC) said 'nuff of this shit in 1995. He split Ontario Hydro (the former equivalent of Hydro Québec) into 2 companies (OPG which generates power, and Hydro One which delivers power - the lines and pylons).

  • Then in 2002, the gov't finally unfroze prices (otherwise the debt mountain would've never stopped) and was going to get ready to sell Hydro One to pass the problem on to the private sector (the citizens of Ontario would've been screwed regardless of the decision, so the gov't figured best to just wash their hands of it and stop the piling up of debt).

  • But in 2002, Premier Ernie Eves (PC) said it might save the province, but it could ruin the consumers. So he re-froze rates again. Basically it kicked the can down the road.

  • Enter the Liberals and Dalton McGuinty in 2003. He mulled over privatization of Hydro One again (rates couldn't stay frozen forever... It would break the province). He finally made a move and started privatizing parts of the hydro industry. This is part of the reason why we now see a zillion hydro companies across the board doing different and strange things.

  • McGuinty also abruptly closed all the coal-fired power plants in Ontario. This led to a potential shortfall in electricity with a fragmented industry which would have a tough time picking up the pieces. We have 70 different power companies now, resulting in terrible inefficiencies which have kept rates sky high. Private investors have been reluctant to move in to find efficiencies because of high taxes and red tape.

  • Enter Kathleen Wynn. We're past the point that everything can be re-nationalized again (Can you imagine the cost and shit-show that would be?). So Wynn said she'd be open to overseeing a proper partial privatization of remaining gov't owned power utilities (at least to introduce expert efficiency models to drive costs down). She recently sold an additional $9 billion of Hydro One (a decision people in Ontario hated), meaning the government only owns 49.9% of it. What's more, as soon as it was sold, Hydro One turned around (last June) and bought the state of Washington, Idaho and Oregon's largest hydro utilities for about $5 billion (we have yet to see if they're going to pass those costs on to its Ontario customers)... with the government of Ontario having a reduced say in it since they now only own 49.9%.
So that's the shit-show of Ontario's power story... spanning 25 years, 5 governments, and all starting with a $10 billion cost overrun when building the Darlington nuclear plant. If Darlington had not been a fiasco, mnuch of this may not have happened (and btw, the Darlington Nuclear plant now needs an additional $14 billion in upgrades).

So then how does this all fit in with stupid-high hydro rates for most of Ontario?? (with the exception of Toronto, which has a well-managed grid and reasonable costs)

  • 2004 - We knew that coal would be phased out, so Ontario started to look for ways to bring down costs in light of a tighter electricity supply

  • 2005 - Ontario tried to stimulate the growth of other power generating plants by offering above market price rates. (rate hike 1)

  • 2006 - Because the above-market rates would leave a gap with what was actually paid to the new generating companies, Ontario decided to pass that gap to consumers (rate hike 2).

  • 2006 - 2009 - 20 year fixed rates for hydro, wind and solar rates (meaning that if generating costs were to go up, that the shortfall would still be passed along to consumers as part of a distribution charge).

  • Fall 2015 - Rates went up (when looking at the above shitshow, can you blame them?)

  • March 2017 - The government announced a 25% legislated drop in rates, but it was just kicking the can down the road for a major rate hike in 10 years.
But much of the above backfired in more ways than just the latter rate hikes.

So much new power generation came on line through government incentives starting in 2005/2006 to generate more power (after all, there are 70 freaking companies involved in this mess), that a huge surplus in electricity entered the market.

But what usually happens with a surplus? Rates go down. But in our case, rates were locked at above market-rates (see 2006 above).

Therefore, to make it so this low-cost surplus (with rates fixed at above market prices) didn't completely ruin the province and industry, the government signed long-term locked-in deals with Manitoba, Quebec, New York, Michigan and Minnesota to sell them our surplus power at a low fixed rate.

That was fine and dandy, but then all the coal stations were closed, and 2 of our nuclear plants (60% of our power generation) will soon need to be closed for many years for upgrades.

All of a sudden our surplus is about to become a shortfall because we can't cancel the electricity contracts with Manitoba, New York, Michigan and Minnesota to supply them massive amounts of what we thought would be limitless electricity (lest we be sued for billions and billions by them for breach of contract), but in reality nobody foresaw that we're going to soon run low owing to all the coal plant shutdowns and nuclear shutdowns (We would have been fine had we not signed those damned US deals when we thought the "built more capacity" drives would give us an eternal excess supply). So now the difference in costs (between the fixed low-rate we're forced into selling to the US and the generation rate which is way more than anticipated) has cost Ontario consumers over $6 billion, passed on at billing time (rate hikes 3).

As an aside, and speaking of continued rate hikes, the privatized Hydro One still has legacy public pensions it needs to pay for (rate hikes 4), and it's own corporate debt stemming from the above events (rate hikes 5).

Ontario now needs to get electricity from somewhere, and fast. In enters the Wynn-Couillard duo, and Hydro Quebec.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/co...oquebec_electricity_sales_to_ontario/dlc3vcl/

This is in light of recent rumors of a massive energy deal between Ontario and Quebec:
http://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-en...tiations-with-quebec-are-continuing-1.3537435

The Society of Energy Professionals said Thibeault was right to reject the deal, but called on him to release the Long-Term Energy Plan - which was supposed to be out this spring - before continuing negotiations.
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Are the Liberals purposefully withholding the Long-Term Energy Plan? If prospects were unfavorable, I could see them trying to prevent another media feeding frenzy.
 
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jje1000 said:
Interesting and thorough summary of Ontario's energy woes on Reddit. A complete mess, with the top few scoops and cherry on top added by the Liberals.

Also an interesting note regarding potential energy shortages down the road.



https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/co...oquebec_electricity_sales_to_ontario/dlc3vcl/

This is in light of recent rumors of a massive energy deal between Ontario and Quebec:
http://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-en...tiations-with-quebec-are-continuing-1.3537435



Are the Liberals purposefully withholding the Long-Term Energy Plan? If prospects were unfavorable, I could see them trying to prevent another media feeding frenzy.
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Great synopsis of the dire situation.

And wasn't there a report yesterday that Hydro One's revenue was lower then expected due to warmer weather? You know what that means: time to raise rates again. These private investors must get their growth.
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
As terrible as the situation maybe through decades of miscalculations, an Ontario/Quebec arrangement is probably a good outcome from a national perspective.

AoD
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The current deal that was rejected was a pretty bad deal, IMO. Fairly similar to the Green Energy deals made (overpriced, guaranteed payments regardless of energy usage). Really just a wealth transfer from Ontario to Quebec.

Overall, any sort of deal nowadays that the Liberals are making is really a band-aid for the miscalculations/poor decisionmaking that they've made over the last ten years.
 
jje1000 said:
Overall, any sort of deal nowadays that the Liberals are making is really a band-aid for the miscalculations/poor decisionmaking that they've made over the last ten years.
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At this point pretty much all their policies are trying to make up for all their previous fuck-ups.

Like their changes to the OMB. Which probably won't be an improvement. But they needed to do something because the public wasn't happy. But it was the Liberals who made OMB decisions binding back in 2009.

And it appears they have now fucked up the rental market as well with their meddling.
 
narduch said:
And it appears they have now fucked up the rental market as well with their meddling.
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According to J. Keesmaat, no planned rental building has been cancelled so far. Those new rent controls are not a return to the past; rents can be reset when a tenant leaves. And there is no reason for developers to be reticent, since they can set their initial rents at whatever the market will bear, and yearly increases will still be allowed.
 
jje1000 said:
Interesting and thorough summary of Ontario's energy woes on Reddit. A complete mess, with the top few scoops and cherry on top added by the Liberals.

Also an interesting note regarding potential energy shortages down the road.



https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/co...oquebec_electricity_sales_to_ontario/dlc3vcl/

This is in light of recent rumors of a massive energy deal between Ontario and Quebec:
http://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-en...tiations-with-quebec-are-continuing-1.3537435



Are the Liberals purposefully withholding the Long-Term Energy Plan? If prospects were unfavorable, I could see them trying to prevent another media feeding frenzy.
Click to expand...

The Redditor you linked to also explained why rates are so much lower in Toronto. Essentially Toronto Hydro is a well run utility, unburdened by debt, located in a dense city with nearby power sources (so lower delivery fees). Toronto apparently has the fourth lowest electricity rates in North America

Their comment:

In a nutshell, it's a distribution company but with more clients than some what exists in some provinces. Therefore it has the advantage of scale density, which reduces carrier charges.

My hydro electrical bill in Toronto averages $71/month for my 2 storey house + finished basement. My A/C (am ashamed to admit it) is on for pretty much 24hrs for 4 months of the year. I have 2 fridges, a freezer, I have more Xmas lights up for 2.5 months than anyone else on my block, I haven't converted most lights to LED, we use base heaters in the winter... and all this for a mere $71/month. My friends elsewhere in Ontario hate me for it (as they look at their $300 bills), and my bill is half what relatives pay in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Granted, in the case outside of Toronto, much of it is carrier charges (not electricity charges), but they are higher electricity charges in AB and SK. Toronto draws a little cheaper power but with a lot cheap carrier charges. There isn't much "carrying" when you can drive across then covered territory in less than an hour with your power sources sitting just beyond your city boundaries.

When questioned last year if this was true, Ontario Energy Minister Bob Chiarelli confirmed that geography is the direct cause for price and rate differences.

That's what I meant when I said thing were ran differently in Toronto (not the company itself, but rather that the infrastructure is set up differently with economies of scale).

Yet there is one area where Toronto Hydro been "ran" differently, and that is it hasn't been chooped up, reorganized or sold off. It's been in existence for decades and ran rather well. Therefore it's not debt burdened like the other utilities in the province, and it doesn't have hidden debt charges in the bills. Because it's in the black with balanced books,it hands over almost $60 million in dividends to the city (its owner) each year.

Edit: Before anyone blasts me for being a wasteful ass... you'll be happy to know I'm refitting everything with LED lights, we're now opening the windows at night instead of the A/C, the daytime temperature isn't being adjusted when we're not home, but rather we're turning it off altogether, I just got rid of the deep freezer (2 freezers in 2 fridges is enough), and I vowed last yr no more space heaters (sweaters will do the trick). Maybe we can get our $71/month down to $60.
 
Which makes it far more puzzling (or suspect) that there have been proposals by the conservative factions of City Hall to privatize Toronto Hydro.

Privatization doesn't always mean better efficiency or lower prices- as proven by the ordeals of Ontario Hydro (and the rest of Ontario enduring those much higher bills) and other countless cautionary tales around the world.
 
jje1000 said:
Which makes it far more puzzling (or suspect) that there have been proposals by the conservative factions of City Hall to privatize Toronto Hydro.

Privatization doesn't always mean better efficiency or lower prices- as proven by the ordeals of Ontario Hydro (and the rest of Ontario enduring those much higher bills) and other countless cautionary tales around the world.
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In some cases, privatization could affect benefit for all concerned. In other cases not. The problem with a lot of the mantras is that they're exactly that: not considered discussions, but rants.

In the case of Toronto, it's not whether privatization of Toronto Hydro would be a direct advantage to Torontonians or not, it's whether the cash from selling would be better used to advantage in other areas of need. Toronto is having to juggle the books, not least because income is below what is needed to run the city. And a good part of that is Tory et al's refusal to increase the rate base.

This is where the Big Blue Machine of past yore would have been pragmatic in approaching the situation. The present-day Neos just like to stand back and chant as to how the light bulb should be screwed in, not if screwing it in is the best move in the first place. Cue the similes....

TheTigerMaster said:
Toronto apparently has the fourth lowest electricity rates in North America
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That's notable, albeit the methodology of calculating that needs to be stated to buttress the claim. I do believe the gist of the claim though.

And why would that be? As TM's source indicates, it's because it's a well-run organization (albeit with some questionable board practices, and a penchant for closed books), and it's a prime case of where the Neos jerk on whim rather than on facts.

It's also a case (accountability concerns beside) of where an arm's length publicly owned utility can deliver privately-owned degrees of efficiency and returns.
 
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Privatizing portfolios like Electricity actually raises costs because they have to work in the profit that private investors rake in.

That's why the public loses out when that happens.

That's why it was a mistake to sell of Hydro One and it would be a mistake to sell off Toronto Hydro.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
Toronto apparently has the fourth lowest electricity rates in North America.
Click to expand...
steveintoronto said:
That's notable, albeit the methodology of calculating that needs to be stated to buttress the claim. I do believe the gist of the claim though.
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I think there might be a few contradictions, since Hydro Quebec's 2016 accounts show Toronto prices as hardly being the lowest (residential rates were considered the highest in Canada):

https://issuu.com/hydroquebec/docs/comp_2016_en?e=1151578/39216309

Perhaps it depends on user usage and combined utility providers- it might be worth looking more into how these numbers were determined.
 
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