Are there parts of Toronto with proportionally more native-born than foreign born visible minorities

[wild goose chase]

And if not, which areas might become closest to it in the near future? I could imagine that if immigration shifts even more to the 905 area in a generation or so and declines even more in the 416 as a whole, parts of the city (especially the old city) will start to have more minorities who are second and third generation Canadians. The proportion of foreign-born in the city seems stable at near 50% or possibly slightly dropping, and I'd imagine the share of native born among minorities will rise. Also increasingly more people might have one foreign born and one native born parent if newcomers marry more established residents.

When discussing the income polarization in Toronto, there is mention that lower income areas have both more minorities and more recent immigrants, who take time to achieve upward mobility. But in discussions about Toronto, "immigrant" and "visible minority" are often conflated (more so than in cities like New York city, LA that are similarly diverse as our own yet have not only high proportions of foreign-born but native-born minorities), and factors like lack of English proficiency, cultural adjustment and foreign diplomas vs. Canadian education, though relevant to and assumed to interfere with social mobility of newcomers, would likely not be problems for second generation Canadians. I could envision many second generation Canadians, no longer facing the barriers (cultural, economic etc.) of their parents, leaving suburban ethnoburbs to return to downtown living while the ring of ethnoburbs and the belt of area with highest % immigrant move away even more outward.

 

[wild goose chase]

It doesn't appear easy to find data on the title question (most data by neighbourhood profiles report percent newcomers, foreign born/second/third generation, and also percentage of visible minorities by group, but not directly whether or not whether an ethnic demographic primarily is composed of newer, older immigrants or native born).

I suspect that possibly the former city of York and places nearby, which right now is no longer much of an immigration gateway (but which was in the 70s, 80s etc.) currently compared to NW and NE Toronto or the 905, might be the place with a higher proportion of second/third generation minorities. In particular, the Caribbean community probably had many who came a generation or two ago.

Also, many of Toronto's visible minorities' second and third generations might be mainly children, so it's possible that areas of the city with more families raising kids, or higher proportions of kids relative to adults, would fit the description.

 

[freshcutgrass]

While it represents a tiny area, I would bet the Toronto Islands have few if any foreign-born inhabitants. But it probably has few visible minorities as well.

 

[wild goose chase]

I'm just basing this off glancing at neighbourhood profiles.

In Toronto, I'd imagine Black Canadians are probably fairly evenly split between native-born and foreign-born, especially if having roots from the Caribbean, rather than more recent roots from Africa. So, in places such as in the old city, York, parts of Etobicoke etc., in places with fewer South or East Asians, where those with Caribbean roots make up most of the visible minorities, it could be that as a whole the second generation among minorities outnumber the first. Foreign-born Black Canadians (and Latin Americans) come from a wider range of countries than the Asian visible minorities though, so individually some countries don't show up on the neighbourhood profile.

In places where they are the most populous, the Chinese and South Asian demographics tend to have a much higher proportion foreign born (eg. Scarborough, NW Etobicoke etc.). Neighbourhood profiles covering places like Rexdale, Agincourt etc. seem to have stats where there seems to be 10-15 000 South Asian or Chinese people but then people born in India and all the other South Asian countries combined, or China and Hong Kong combined make up 5000- 10 000 people. So these places probably will not likely have the second generation outnumber the first for quite a while. However, in places where they are small (eg. the Beaches having 115 people listed as born in China, but 455 listed as Chinese under visible minorities, or Niagara having 1475 Chinese and 1000 South Asian visible minorities but only 410 and 320 born in China and India respectively), it's possible that those visible minorities' demographics as a whole are more second or even third generation (the third generation would likely be young and possibly likely kids though).

My guess is from looking at neighbourhood demographics, the places near the Waterfront communities, The Beaches, etc are probably the places with the most native-born visible minorities. It seems like where the visible minority population is small to begin with, most of the ones there would be more second generation plus.