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2015 Federal Election

CodeMonkey said:
But...but...Stephen Harper said coalition governments are anti-democratic. Even though he wanted to do the same thing with the NDP back in 2006 to keep the Liberals out of power. :rolleyes:

Still, I think we should start making bets on how the CPC and Harper will spin this news? :D
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Coalitions are incredibly common around the world. Germany, India, Israel...the list goes on. Harper forgets that on purpose.
 
nfitz said:
Interesting that the article keeps saying coalition, but no quote from Cullen includes the word coalition.

What exactly did Cullen say? It should be no surprise to anyone that the Liberals and NDP would work to stop another Harper government - but that doesn't mean a coalition!

Is the press spinning this?
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"The Liberal voters that I know are as fed up with Stephen Harper as anybody,"

"I think the Liberals lost their nerve last time and made a huge mistake," said Cullen.

"But Justin Trudeau will do himself a great deal of damage with progressive voters if he wants to contemplate more years of this Harper government."

"Canadians are going to reward those parties that are willing to work with others and work on behalf of the country first," he said. "Our eyes are focused on our opponents, and our opponent is Stephen Harper right now."
 
CodeMonkey said:
I was being sarcastic, I know full well coalitions are common in parliamentary systems.
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I knew that you were being sarcastic. ;) It was just interesting that Harper would say that when his G7 allies rely on them to form governments. He supports Israel, a country that hasn't had a majority government in decades!

After fours years of a very undemocratic majority government, I think a few minorities will be good for Canada.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/con...other-blow-by-federal-court-1.3165544?cmp=rss

Harper loses another court case.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/c...to-call-for-senate-abolition-on-friday-source

He must have seen some bad polling numbers.

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/07/24/conservatives-in-lead-after-feds-roll-out-child-care-benefit-poll/

What?

EDIT:

http://www.cp24.com/news/polls-disagree-about-which-party-leads-election-race-1.2485751

So, one poll has the CPC with a massive lead and the other one has the NDP in the lead...
 
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Videodrome said:
So, one poll has the CPC with a massive lead and the other one has the NDP in the lead...
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That's because the Mainstreet poll only includes decided voters. Supporters of the Conservatives are more likely to already be decided, rather than merely leaning, because many of them will never consider a "left" party. They are dyed-in-the-wool "anti-Red" voters. Whereas supporters of the other parties are more willing to strategically shift their votes depending on their respective likelihoods of winning, so the percentage of them that are "decided" is lower.

Taking that into account removes most of the differences in the numbers between the Mainstreet poll and the other recent polls. What is left can be explained as simple random variation. Every poll has something about being accurate to within X percent, 19 times out of 20. This could be poll number 20.

And it's possible that there are enough greedy and stupid voters that have fallen for this transparent ruse, to bump up the Conservative numbers a few percent for at least a while.
 
The majority of population growth has occurred in suburban locations, and suburban locations swung Conservative last election, giving Harper his majority.

There is nothing to suggest that there has been gerrymandering in Canada. There's a reason why the person who wrote that article never accused the government of gerrymandering. If anything, the recent redistribution has fixed the gerrymandered districts in Saskatchewan.
 
Re the article: note the author's by-line
Will McMartin, a longtime political consultant and commentator who has been affiliated with the Social Credit and B.C. Conservative parties,
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Which might show in his heavy-handed extrapolations from 2011 results--and actually, don't be surprised if the Cons take that "2011's numbers don't lie, folks" approach in making sure all those seats stay CPC (Though IMO it *could* backfire a la Jim Prentice's "I know math is difficult")
 
There is nothing to suggest that there has been gerrymandering in Canada. There's a reason why the person who wrote that article never accused the government of gerrymandering. If anything, the recent redistribution has fixed the gerrymandered districts in Saskatchewan.
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The new districts actually backfired on a Conservative MP.

Re the article: note the author's by-line
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That was interesting. Social Credit is basically extinct and the BC Conservatives don't have any seats in the legislature.

Note that Mainstreet Technologies has never conducted a national poll before.
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They had some outlandish polls for the mayoral election.
 
The Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal riding association is having their nomination meeting today; results should be out around 6.
 
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