2009, a bad year to be a terrorist

Discussion in 'Politics & Diplomacy' started by Admiral Beez, Jan 5, 2009.

  1. Admiral Beez

    Admiral Beez Senior Member

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    1) Tamil Tigers, listed as a Terror Group in Canada since 2006, see their capital Kilinochchi captured by Sri Lanka's military. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7811360.stm

    2) Hamas, listed as a Terror Group in Canada since 2006, breaks the ceasefire agreement with Israel, begins firing rockets, and then gets its territory invaded for its trouble. D'oh!

    and...worst of all for 2009's terrorists...

    3) The Bush era ends. With Obama leading the USA, Jihadists will, I predict, have a much more difficult time recruiting new members and funding.
     
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  2. Hipster Duck

    Hipster Duck Senior Member

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    1) Don't know enough about this conflict. Won't comment on it.

    2) This is definitely not the last we'll hear from Hamas. Killing leaders like Nizar Rayyan only makes them martyrs; if you kill one leader you essentially plant the seed for 10 more leaders in their place. This latest conflict is eerily familiar to the Hezzbollah-led rocket attacks on Northern Israel in 2006, which after fierce fighting led to a UN ceasefire. To my knowledge, Hezzbollah is still alive and well (and strong) in Lebanon - in fact, their existence as a legitimate organization and their "right" to liberate Israeli-occupied land was secured in Lebanese parliament in August of last year.

    Sending in the military bulldozers and repeated air strikes that seem to kill dozens of civilians is the reason why Palestinians continue to flock to extremist groups and what ruins popular opinion of Israel in the rest of the world. Perhaps if the IDF/Mossad pursued more covert tactics similar to what they did in the early 1970s, they'd win more sympathy both from Palestianians and from abroad.

    3) I think that given the US' economic troubles that Barack Obama will probably focus more of his agenda domestically, but I am not convinced that Barack Obama, the man and the image he projects, will be enough to deter further terrorist recruitment. His sentiments on Iran during the campaign, for example, were troubling. Refocusing his strategy on Afghanistan is probably the smart thing to do, but I question whether redirecting troops away from Iraq and toward Afghanistan will antagonize the frontier region of Pakistan. Don't forget that this is where the Taliban and associated terrorists already form the de facto government, with the help of unruly locals and a rather thriving black market in arms. To be a bit of a hawk, the war in Iraq (and the sectarian violence that ensued) seemed like a useful way to divert terrorist activity (such as al Qaeda) away from Western targets and concentrate them within Iraq. While I was staunchly against the US getting into Iraq, I think that withdrawing troops from Iraq will lead to this inevitable power vacuum which will free up the resources of the terrorists there to pursue other targets, possibly even those a little closer to home.
     
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  3. theowne

    theowne Active Member

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    Both sides of that Sri Lanka conflict should be listed as terrorist groups.
     
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  4. Admiral Beez

    Admiral Beez Senior Member

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    The Tamils, like the Jihadists were never good at PR in the west. Meanwhile the Singhalese and Jews cry victim to the west while using their superior military force to crush the supposed terrorists.

    It hasn't always been bad to be a terror group. The IRA did very well under Reagan, Bush and at the start of Clinton's term, and, to his credit, it was Bush that helped put a nail in the Paddies coffin. During the 1980s and 1990s, the Tamil Tigers obtain vast funding and support from Canadian sources. Until they overstepped themselves on 9/11, the Jihadists and Taliban in Afghanistan had a very good gig going, but now they're living in dirty caves or lying in graves, while the west just carries on doing what it does best (or worst, depending on your point of view). No, the period of the 1980s-2001 were great days to be a terrorist, lots of funding from within your enemy's nations, plenty of juicy targets and weak opposition. The times are a changing in 2009.
     
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  5. Long Island Mike

    Long Island Mike Senior Member

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    1: I will defer comments until I read more about this one.

    2: Israel and the Palestinian/Hamas conflict is a problem that needs to be watched and addressed by Barack Obama after he becomes President.
    I am certainly taking notice here!

    3: I hope you are right,AB. With W leaving some of that jihad incentive will leave with him.

    LI MIKE
     
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  6. kEiThZ

    kEiThZ Senior Member

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    1) The Tamil Tigers are far more despicable than most realize. Sure it was 9/11 that prompted many governments to finally cut off funding...and in Canada's case required a change of government (the Libs would never have listed the LTTE as a terror group)...however, it was the export of their expertise that hardened the hearts of western governments. Exporting tactics (they pioneered suicide bombings) and technology to other groups such as Hezbollah significantly irritated the West. The West's improving relations with India who lost many peacekeepers and a prime minister to the LTTE, also required a re-think of the permissive environment for the LTTE. With the fall of Killinochi, they are virtually finished. 2010 might see the end of the civil war and the beginning of a prolonged guerilla/terror campaign.

    2) Hamas got exactly what it wanted. It pelted southern Israel with rockets and mortars for two months in the hopes the Israelis would react and they did. What they perhaps had not anticipated are the capabilities of the Israelis...who learned a lot of lessons from the last round with Hezbollah. While most believed that Hezbollah had come away victorious in the aftermath of the conflict in 2006, newer evidence that has come to light shows that Israel was fairly successful in severely diminishing Hezbollah's capabilities and had significant momentum at the time the ceasefire came into play. This time around they have moved quick. And we are already seeing a smarter game plan....keeping western reporters who fall prey to Hamas propaganda out. If Israel succeeds it will have split the Palestinian camp into and demonstrated to Gazans that there is a price for supporting Hamas. If it fails, war will become a feature of daily life as Hamas and Hezbollah take turns provoking Israel.
     
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  7. theowne

    theowne Active Member

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    The problem with that line of thought is that it gives the government of Sri Lanka free reign to consider themselves morally superior and paints them as harmless victims being terrorized unfairly by a crazy militant group. Here's an article by Human Rights Watch detailing some more recent abuses by the government: Human Rights Watch . The Human Rights Watch page has a lot of reports about the conflict ranging from the Tiger's abuse of Tamil civilians to the government's further abuse of civilians trying to escape the first abuse.... The methods that the LTTE uses are despicable, but they are a guerrilla group against a national army. I personally don't sympathize with either side nor see any extreme difference in morality. I also think objectively speaking, the government should be branded as a terrorist group as well.

    But I guess in today's world conflicts have to be spelled out in black-and-white terms of good vs. evil rather than fuzzy grey line.

    Ah, the wonders of colonialism.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2009
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  8. cacruden

    cacruden Senior Member

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    Unfortunately you are dreaming if a new president is going to have much of an impact on this situation. You have on one side - a state - which feels constantly under threat, and on the other side a belief that the only real solution (long term) is the end of the state of Israel. A new president is not going to change that.

    Hamas (and other like minded organizations) believe that the land that was ever occupied by muslim states - is theirs by right - by god, and letting Israel survive is an embarrassment or outright blasphemy against god. It is also why any American presence (whether an embassy or military base) is not acceptable to other Alkeda affiliated organizations. This is unlikely to change.

    Israel (hard line) knows this and has come to terms with this - and believe the land is theirs by divine right - and are quite willing to push all Palestinians off of the land using any means necessary. This faction is represented by the Likud leader (forget his name).

    The PLO is corrupt and have lost popular support by staking their reputation on Oslo type agreements.

    Hamas and Israel will not even talk directly or recognize the right of the other party to exist.
     
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  9. PukeGreen

    PukeGreen Active Member

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    Regarding point #3, I wish it were that easy. Obama is no Bush but the terrorist recruiters will still need to have an enemy to rail against, and Obama is still the head of public enemy number one. This article shows that the process has already begun:

    AL-QAIDA NO. 2 BLAMES OBAMA FOR GAZA
    Al-Zawahiri says offensive in Palestinian territory is 'Obama's gift to Israel'
    The Associated Press
    updated 6:02 a.m. ET, Wed., Jan. 7, 2009

    CAIRO, Egypt - Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader lashed out at President-elect Barack Obama in a new audio message Tuesday, accusing him of not doing anything to stop Israel's offensive in the Gaza Strip, according to an intelligence monitoring center.

    The recording purportedly by Ayman al-Zawahiri was al-Qaida's first comments on the Gaza crisis since Israel launched its offensive against the Islamic militants of Hamas on Dec. 27.

    In the comments, which were posted on a militant Web site and obtained by the SITE Monitoring Service, al-Zawahiri described Israel's actions in Gaza as a "crusade against Islam and Muslims" and called it "Obama's gift to Israel" before he takes office later this month.

    "This is Obama whom the American machine of lies tried to portray as the rescuer who will change the policy of America," al-Zawahiri said, according to SITE. "He kills your brothers and sisters in Gaza mercilessly and without affection."

    Al-Zawahiri, who is Egyptian, also criticized Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, calling him a "traitor" for keeping Egypt's border with the Gaza Strip closed since Hamas seized power.

    "At the time when Israeli planes drop their bombs from the air, he closes the borders with his forces so that the plan of the killing of believers in Gaza is fulfilled," al-Zawahiri said, according to SITE.

    He urged Egyptians and Muslims around the world to pressure Mubarak into opening the border and to take a more active role in fighting Israel.

    Thousands of people in cities worldwide have held mass street demonstrations to protest Israel's offensive, but al-Zawahiri said those were not enough.

    "Fight the Zionist Crusader campaign," al-Zawahiri said, according to SITE. "Strike its interests everywhere you can reach them. Support and back your mujahedeen brothers and children against them."

    The audio message was accompanied by a still photograph of the al-Qaida leader sitting with a gun in his lap.

    The recording could not be immediately verified, but SITE said it was posted on Web sites commonly used by Islamic militants. The recording also carried the logo for al-Qaida's media production house, Al-Sahab.

    © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28534324/
     
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  10. Admiral Beez

    Admiral Beez Senior Member

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    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20090127.TAMIL27/TPStory/National

    Looks like the Canadian route of armaments and support for the Tamil terrorists has taken a hit.

     
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  11. SP!RE

    SP!RE °°°°°°

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    If they are such big fans of where they come from (or the past generations of their family) and want to "support" their "cause" (which is terrorism) there with military might, why don't we send them home on a permanent vacation there? AKA tell them "Eat your words--- go live in that place you were going to be dropping bombs."

    Honestly though, if someone cares enough that they are trying to purchase missiles for terrorist purposes relating to a homeland of some sort-- then we should kick them the hell out of here. :)

    If only the world worked that simple... :rolleyes:
     
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  12. SP!RE

    SP!RE °°°°°°

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    PS. terrorist recruitment has nothing to do with how tough Obama acts. Terrorism stems from a mindset which is fuelled by politicians who... well... are like George Bush. Obama will do much better diplomatically between different nations, and that includes the middle east.
     
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  13. Hydrogen

    Hydrogen post-young

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    Speaking of terrorists (and I mean Cheney)...


    Former VP Dick Cheney warns of nuclear attack on United States under President Obama
    BY JAMES GORDON MEEK
    DAILY NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU
    Wednesday, February 4th 2009, 7:56 PM


    Yes - It's only a matter of time

    No - Cheney's gone over the edge

    WASHINGTON - Dick Cheney isn't finished scaring the bejesus out of America.

    The former vice president warned Wednesday that there's a "high probability" the U.S. will get nuked by terrorists during President Obama's watch.

    "The ultimate threat to the country [is] a 9/11-type event where the terrorists are armed with something much more dangerous than an airline ticket and a box cutter - a nuclear weapon or a biological agent of some kind," Cheney told Politico.com from his latest undisclosed location - his new Virginia office.

    Cheney said that "perhaps hundreds of thousands of people" would perish in such a strike, and that "there's a high probability of such an attempt."

    He also appeared to miss his role defending ex-President George W. Bush for "the dark side" of fighting terrorists. In his first interview since leaving office, Cheney described that effort to protect the country as "a tough, mean, dirty, nasty business."

    "We're not going to win this fight by turning the other cheek," Cheney added.
    The ex-veep had little kind to say about Obama's plan to shut down the terrorist prison at Guantanamo Bay.

    Cheney griped that Democrats "are more concerned about reading the rights to an Al Qaeda terrorist" than protecting the U.S. from Osama Bin Laden's gang.

    Some think "if we just go talk nice to these folks, everything's going to be okay," he said. "They're optimistic . . . We were."

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...former_vp_dick_cheney_warns_of_nuclear_a.html
     
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  14. Prometheus The Supremo

    Prometheus The Supremo ►Member №41+⅜◄

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    wow! just like 24, the television series.
     
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  15. Brian69

    Brian69 Not the Messiah

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    Wow--I'd expect that from Limbaugh or Coulter, not this pathetic parting shot from someone who used to be in control of the White House. The disconnect in the minds of neo-cons over what they profess to believe in and how they act will never cease to disgust me. Freedom at any price? The price is freedom, Dick.

    One almost gets the sense Cheney wants something to happen under Obama's watch just so he can say "I told you so." Any nuclear attack would be more likely in Obama's era only because of the Bush team's extraordinary efforts at encouraging the recruitment of terrorists as Beez pointed out.

    As far as the other groups go, the Tamil Tigers and Hamas are both organizations with plenty of criminal elements and a long list of terrorist actions and human rights violations. I'm not sorry to see both are having severe problems this year. But both sides are up against modern armies who are less than careful about how they go about attempting to wipe them out, so the other sides in the equation (Israel and the Sri Lankan Government) shouldn't get off scot free either. Civilian casualties have been high in both cases. A larger problem is both organizations are more than capable of waging terror/insurgency actions for years to come, so there will be no lasting victory as long as there's no peace.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2009
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