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Rob Ford and the Toronto Consensus

Wishful thinking. As a nation, we are much more conservative, and the polls show a big "change in attitudes to taxes."

k10ery, I agree with your general assessment as it pertains to now. However, to what extent has this trend played itself out? I sense that the present trend towards a Harper or Ford type conservatism has already peaked out. This is not wishful thinking on my part because I'm not a left-leaning voter. I actually muse with the theoretical idea that an Ontario based red-tory party if formed would utterly decimate the political landscape in this country. We have basically gotten to a point I sense where tax cutting no longer resonate. People don't want tax increases either. What they want is a return to basics. A return to our founding principles, namely: Peace, Order, and Good Government. The current conservative strain is more like Conflict, Order, and Small Government.
 
Ford would not survive another term health-wise. The guy is losing it. If he has any sense he'll retire. Heart attack or flip-out (one that see's him escorted away in an xxl straight-jacket). Those are my predictions.
 
The current conservative strain is more like Conflict, Order, and Small Government.

I think Conflict, Authoritarianism and Privatization would be a more accurate description, but I get that you were attempting to hew as close as possible to the 'POGG' original wording.
 
How much of that was due to vote-splitting between NDP and Liberals, though? Where in the GTA do conservatives get majorities?

The most positive development in Toronto has been the exodus towards downtown from young professionals. These people will become the most influential people in the future, and they won't be against density and public transit to the same extent that their parents are - even if they still have a long way to go before they can think of abandoning the hyper-materialist lifestyle that suburbs impose on their inhabitants.

Hate to break it to you but most of the young professionals heading downtown is just going to move back uptown when family time comes.
 
Wishful thinking. As a nation, we are much more conservative, and the polls show a big "change in attitudes to taxes."

k10ery, I agree with your general assessment as it pertains to now. However, to what extent has this trend played itself out? I sense that the present trend towards a Harper or Ford type conservatism has already peaked out. This is not wishful thinking on my part because I'm not a left-leaning voter. I actually muse with the theoretical idea that an Ontario based red-tory party if formed would utterly decimate the political landscape in this country. We have basically gotten to a point I sense where tax cutting no longer resonate. People don't want tax increases either. What they want is a return to basics. A return to our founding principles, namely: Peace, Order, and Good Government. The current conservative strain is more like Conflict, Order, and Small Government.

What I'd like to know is what has to change before politicians start thinking about tax increases again? Because with our aging population and with our 30 years of delaying investments in transit etc., we either have to increase taxes or face service cuts in future. Right now it seems like only service cuts are a possibility.
 
The "lefty downtown elite" vs the "right winged (inner) suburbs" is very much a myth. The majority of Torontonians vote for left of centre parties regularly. Even in the last federal election where Harper broke the glass ceiling to gain some seats in the 416, it was only a small percentage as the overwhelming majority of suburban 416 ridings went to the Liberals and even the NDP.

Ford's mayoral victory, as well as the wards with right winged councillors, are more anomalies than the rule. Actually, besides being uneducated and uninformed, I absolutely cannot think of a reason why a voter who regularly votes Liberal would also vote for the likes of the Ford Bros, Mammoliti, and Minnan-Wong.
 
The "lefty downtown elite" vs the "right winged (inner) suburbs" is very much a myth. The majority of Torontonians vote for left of centre parties regularly. Even in the last federal election where Harper broke the glass ceiling to gain some seats in the 416, it was only a small percentage as the overwhelming majority of suburban 416 ridings went to the Liberals and even the NDP.

Would that it were so! The Tories got 8 of the 416 suburban ridings while the Liberals and NDP combined for 7.
 
Anyone know how many of those 8 ridings lost to the Conservatives were due to a surging NDP and a split vote though?

Of course most of them, but that is likely to repeat itself. In the next mayoral election, the NDP will definitely run a candidate. If it's someone like Joe Pantalone, he'll never be able to pick enough of the centrist support to win. Likewise, a Liberal candidate will lose a lot of his or her potential vote to the NDP candidate.
 
Sure, but the point is that there hasn't been some great surge in Conservative support. Those ridings are still largely the progressive places they used to be, the only difference being the much deeper split vote between the Liberals and NDP in the last federal election.
 
Of course most of them, but that is likely to repeat itself. In the next mayoral election, the NDP will definitely run a candidate. If it's someone like Joe Pantalone, he'll never be able to pick enough of the centrist support to win. Likewise, a Liberal candidate will lose a lot of his or her potential vote to the NDP candidate.

I don't think "the NDP" will run a candidate in a race that includes Fraud and another "name" candidate (i.e. a "liberal" or an independent (of Ford) conservative like Stintz or Tory). People are aware of the size of Fraud's base (no fat ass jokes, please) and the concept of vote splitting.
 
And we have to remember, too: it isn't so simple as a Ford 2010 vote = a conservative vote. (After all, in Ward 26, Ford actually did better vs Smitherman in normally Grit/NDP-leaning high-rise/multiethnic Thorncliffe Park than in much more normally Toryish Leaside.)
 
It's all name recognition and familiarity in municipal politics. Do you think Rob Ford ran on a whim? The guy has been campaigning since he became councillor. He held annual bbqs and went out of his way to build personal relationships with constituents across the city. His radio talk show wasn't a fun side gig either. If the Liberals actually backed a more competent candidate like Rossi (instead of finding the fastest way to usher a disasterous Smitherman away from government), or if the NDP actually cared for the city instead of forcing a (4 term?) councillor like Pantalone to retire so Layton JR could be handed a job... maybe Toronto wouldn't be in this predicament. How appropriate the selfish actions of two parties landed a Mayor that's shown to be quite selfish in his policies...

p.s. I spoke to many Ford supporters including card carrying conservatives and few thought he would be a good mayor for the city. However, many thought he would be good for 1 term to 'shake things up' in a complacent council that's been shifting too far 'left'. 2 years away from the municipal election, will see who's name shows up again. P.S. if Shelly Caroll or Giambrone runs, I can almost guarantee you a second term Ford admin
 
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