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2008 Federal Election: - Predictions for Toronto Area Constituencies

northstar

northstar

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I'm creating this thread for discussion on the Federal Election on the 14th of October - particularly as it relates to Toronto area constituencies. I couldn't find a similar forum thread on this webservice.

For starters: I'm curious if anyone thinks there'll be any upsets, or whether it will simply be the case that Toronto voters return the same set of politicians to Ottawa. I believe there are 22 ridings, 19 of which went Liberal in the last election.

Personally, I don't think there'll be much change, especially in the 416 area code ridings; however, due to the fact that I reside in the East end of Toronto, I'm familiar with only the East and Central Toronto constituencies.
 
I agree. The Tories will almost certainly encroach further in the 905 belt (i.e. Oakville, Mississauga South, Newmarket-Aurora are up for grabs) but I really doubt they'll take anything in the 416. As for the NDP, Jack Layton will easily win Danforth and Olivia Chow won't have much of a challenge in Trinity-Spadina. It looks to me Peggy Nash's chances of beating Gerard Kennedy in Parkdale-High Park are getting better and better - he disappeared after being the kingmaker at the convention (and thus sticking the party with Dion), Nash is one of the strongest members of the NDP caucus and the Libs won't be able to credibly say "Kennedy's surely headed to Cabinet" with their dismal numbers. Marilyn Churley will likely beat Maria Minna in Beaches-East York - but that is the only 416 seat I can see changing hands. The NDP will narrow the gap but will still fall short in Davenport (a loss there for the Liberals would be an Outremont-style humiliation, which I don't see happening).
 
I predict the PC candidate eats chow for lunch...

DSC01094.jpg


....handing the sleazebag Liberals a victory.
 
^ Naw, I think Chow will win. She learned her lesson two elections ago (has to campaign in her riding, not other parts of Canada)

The interesting one to watch, in Toronto, will be Parkdale - High Park. Peggy Nash is not exactly a slouch, and she may hold off Gerard Kennedy. If so, it will probably be the end of the road for him.

Edit: A friend in the High Park area says that Nash is winning the sign war, and predicts that she will win. Too bad for Kennedy, he may be the victim of poor timing / poor leadership in his party. He's a good guy, but I would not bet on any political future for him.
 
Concerning Kennedy, his loss would narrow the race for Dion's replacement.

Also, there are little swirling rumours that the Conservatives have some dirt on Kennedy from his food bank years.

I have a feeling Chow will win again.
 
Peggy Nash to win in Parkdale-High Park is my prediction. She will be a contender to lead the NDP when Jack Layton steps down (whenever that is). Yes Kennedy has name recognition but he should have backed Bob Rae as Liberal leader, not Dion. Because of that Kennedy ultimately will not win over incumbent Peggy Nash. Bob Rae should have been debating last night, the Liberals are all screwed up they are infighting too much, not actually thinking strategically as in "let's bond together and do what we have to stop stop Harper". But alas.

As for the larger picture, all I can say is that I sincerely hope we do not vote in a conservative majority. and even so. I am terrified of another conservative minority. The best case scenario would be to see the NDP. Liberals & Greens put their differences aside and join together to form a coalition government to keep Harper out of office. Harper in office is dangerous and irresponsible of Canadians.
 
Also, there are little swirling rumours that the Conservatives have some dirt on Kennedy from his food bank years.
Click to expand...

I know people who worked with him at the food bank. It's completely untrue. That's typical Tory sleaze. You know that if they had any dirt, they would have come out with it already, so they just try to spread rumours.
 
With current trends, we should expect a DiNovo-Watson spread in P-HP if a generic Liberal was running. However Kennedy does have some personal popularity, but he would need about 5000 or so "Kennedy New Democrats" to show up on election day. I don't see that happening. I was in the riding last weekend and in the NDP strongholds I didn't see any "Kennedy New Democrat" effect - it was a sea of orange. The Tories were invisible and the Greens didn't have much in terms of signage either.
 
My riding of Bramalea - Gore - Malton is very strange.


The more older areas all shifted Conservative yet the Liberal incumbent support increased.


The man won I think over 60-80% of the vote in the south Asian dominated areas...
In the new Development areas he won over 60% vote everywhere....

I think he got over 60% of the vote in my local area...

http://multimedia.thestar.com/acrobat/8d/11/799681d942e4a7e5b0b688a6d5c5.pdf
 
lordmandeep said:
My riding of Bramalea - Gore - Malton is very strange.


The more older areas all shifted Conservative yet the Liberal incumbent support increased.
Click to expand...

Two points here:

(1) the newer areas where Gurbax was strongest grew the fastest, thus counteracting the Tory shift in the older areas,

(2) the last Tory candidate was a local councillor of Italian-Canadian background. Thus he was more of a "known name", and (sad to say) more palatable to "Euro" voters in the heart of Bramalea than his predecessor, ex-MPP Raminder Gill...
 
adma said:
I've been seeing a fair bit of Green signage in P-HP, though obviously not as much as the frontrunners. From whom is he drawing, is another question...
Click to expand...

According to virtually all the polls, it's at the expense of the Liberals...not surprising given that May is better at selling the carbon tax and the "progressive" case for staying in Afghanistan than Dion is.
 
(1) the newer areas where Gurbax was strongest grew the fastest, thus counteracting the Tory shift in the older areas,

(2) the last Tory candidate was a local councillor of Italian-Canadian background. Thus he was more of a "known name", and (sad to say) more palatable to "Euro" voters in the heart of Bramalea than his predecessor, ex-MPP Raminder Gill...
Click to expand...


Considering the Conservative lady is a regular white lady and not a "known Name" and the fact the new areas have grown even more...



I expect a Liberal landslide there..


50% support.
 
Canvassers for Liberal Christine Innes (Trinity-Spadina) came to my door today. It was quite an interesting conversation... while all my neighbors shut their doors, I welcomed the front door debate.

I must say that they made a pretty good case for looking at the Liberal party as the one to either elect or make the official opposition if we want the infrastructure problems in Toronto to be dealt with.

On the other hand, Olivia Chow herself, was at my door just a few days ago. I like her work as an MP and specially like how she was once a Toronto councillor so she understands the urban problems that we face.
 
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