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Canada's next Prime Minister?

Who would win in the Federal Elections?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
I doubt it, the support for the Liberals is much more regional then the Conservatives in 1993.

The Liberals stronghold is still Toronto and English Montreal.


That alone gives 40 seats.

Add in seats that are hugely Liberal around Toronto you get close to 60 seats.
 
Actually, the way things are going, they might just end up like Kim Campbell: 16% of the popular vote....2 seats in parliament.

Once your popular vote declines into the mid to low 20s, the seat count starts dropping precipitously fast.

You're one of the people blowing things out of proportion, because the polls aren't nearly that bad for Liberals, and many Canadians still prefer the Liberal party they just don't feel inspired by the current leader.

Its hilarious the rhetoric I'm hearing when Liberals aren't polling that badly.
 
Poll: Half of Canadians Agreed That a Harper Majority "Would be Like Electing George Bush as Prime Minister"

"Canadians not keen on any of leaders"

Dissatisfaction with Harper, Dion, Layton widespread: pollster

by Mike Blanchfield; Thursday, September 18, 2008 - Canwest News Service
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=fc7d5...

Stephen Harper is a George W. Bush clone with a hidden agenda. Jack Layton is not the champion of the average "kitchen table" Canadian. Stéphane Dion is not a team player and is wrong on the environment and economy.

Those are the findings of a new poll that shows widespread dissatisfaction and disillusionment with Canada's three national party leaders currently vying for the job of prime minister in the federal election.

"There isn't a lot of passion in this campaign right now," concluded Ipsos Reid pollster Darrell Bricker, who asked Canadians whether they were buying into the core campaign messages put forth by each of the major party leaders.

The implication of all this, he said, is a third consecutive minority Parliament -- not the Conservative majority that Mr. Harper is seeking.

"People do think the direction (Mr. Harper) would take the country if he was unfettered from a minority government is something that they wouldn't like to see, more in line with what George Bush might do if he was elected prime minister."

Half of those surveyed agreed with the notion that giving Mr. Harper a majority would be like electing Mr. Bush as prime minister. Another 50 per cent agreed that Mr. Harper had a "hidden agenda," compared with 36 per cent who did not.

On the core theme of the Harper campaign -- that he would provide "steady leadership in tough economic times" -- 52 per cent rejected that notion, while 35 per cent agreed.

Respondents kicked the legs out from under Mr. Layton's core pitch to voters that he is the leader who "will act on the priorities at the kitchen table instead of the boardroom table," with 45 per cent disagreeing versus 35 per cent who agreed.

Mr. Bricker said that finding shows Mr. Layton's personal popularity -- a previous Ipsos Reid poll had him as Canadians' second choice for prime minister after Mr. Harper -- doesn't stand up to deeper questioning. "When we start talking about things like issues he wants to talk about, I don't know that he has credibility."

Mr. Dion's core theme -- that his Green Shift plan makes him the most credible candidate on the environment and the economy -- was rejected by 55 per cent, compared with only 30 per cent that accepted it.

But if a shred of silver lining exists in these new numbers, it would be for Mr. Dion, said Mr. Bricker.

That's because only 48 per cent agree with the notion that electing Mr. Dion and the Liberals would be "too big a risk" for Canadians.

"That means there's another 52 per cent who think that's not a problem. It shows that he's capable of being in the game," said Mr. Bricker.

In Ontario, half of those polled accept the Harper-as-Bush premise, while only 32 per cent agree the prime minister represents the steadiest hand in tough economic times. At the same time, 42 per cent believe Mr. Dion is too big a risk. About 37 per cent of Ontarians support the Liberal leader as a "true team player" who has the right ideas on the economy and the environment.

The Sept. 9-11 on-line survey of 1,016 respondents is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

© The Ottawa Citizen 2008
 
Top myths/facts about the 2008 fall election:

*Harper really isn't that popular. He is just more popular than Dion as a personality figure because he triggered an election when he saw fit to do so.

*This is the first conservative government in a generation. Its also the first serious economic downturn in a generation. You can blame the US all you want, but the fact remains that Harper is doing nothing about it other than meaningless tax cuts and screwing Ontario. Dion's Green shift plan is the only plan that can generate the needed revenue and incentives to pay for a new Green collar workforce and seriously avoid a manufacturing meltdown.

*Dion IS a fresh face, and turns the page to bring a new voice to the Liberal party. With the way the media have been acting you'd think Martin was still PM and that Liberals are the current governing party with the current problems.

I'm sorry, but the media need to start reporting that the Conservatives under Harper have had the government for nearly 3 years now. They've created some serious problems and have created Canada's first quarterly deficit in a decade, with a likely year-over-year deficit to come soon. People can downplay the importance of deficit, but its a government surplus that allows tax cuts for the middle class, to fund programs like child care and health care, and to create new subway systems and infrastructure. The more deficit, the less money available for these programs.

Harper is to blame for the deficit threat because he lowered a tax that gives minimal support to families, not because he lowered a meaningful tax that people really get credit for.

This election is turning out to be quite hilarious. People ranting about a Campbell PC-like demise of the Liberal party when the party still has a good chance at pulling a minority government or even a surprise majority win (the polls really can't predict this as its razor thin).

All I can do is sit back and enjoy the show.

Also, there's a lot to say about the Green party of Canada. Its fiscally more moderate than the NDP - like the Liberals - and its socially left and pro-green - again, like the Liberals. In America I understand if people support Nader, I support him, because the Democrats don't support single payer universal health care, the Democrats don't support a carbon tax, the Democrat here doesn't support a full withdrawal from Iraq guaranteed, he supports extending the war in Afghanistan and re-centering the war there. The Democrats don't stand for civil rights for everyone, including gay marriage and separating church/state.

In Canada the Liberals support the Canadian health system, Liberals created the Green Shift, and Liberals are socially progressive and created all kinds of social freedoms that everyday Canadians enjoy. It was under the previous Liberal government that gay marriage was granted.

There is a clear difference here, and its not hypocritical for me to support Nader here in the US and also wish for a Dion win in Canada, despite what some have said. There is little reason to vote for the Canadian Greens. There's nothing to punish in the Liberal party anymore, Dion is a fresh face.

I have little respect for Greens when they should be voting Liberal these days. I understand Greens have a slightly more centrist economic platform compared with the NDP, but so do the Liberals.

People who vote Green in Canada really are using a proxy vote to support Harper's government, especially in ridings where its close.

If you're considering voting Green, why not just vote NDP and be done with it? I mean at least you'd be supporting a real party that has a greener platform than the greens.
 
*Harper really isn't that popular. He is just more popular than Dion as a personality figure because he triggered an election when he saw fit to do so.

That's your excuse? That Harper caught Dion with his pants around his ankles. Find me a leader of a minority who called an election when the polls said he would lose.... The Liberals knew that an election was going to be called sometime in this session. They should have been ready to go. If you want the job of Prime Minister, saying 'I'm not ready just yet' to campaign, is not an excuse.

*This is the first conservative government in a generation. Its also the first serious economic downturn in a generation. You can blame the US all you want, but the fact remains that Harper is doing nothing about it other than meaningless tax cuts and screwing Ontario.

Those meaningless tax cuts have provided a larger economic stimulus proportionally than the US stimulus package. Was it bad tax policy? Sure. But as a counter to a slowing economy it was fortuitously timed. As for blaming the recession on the Conservatives. There is no way I am going to blame a recession on the Conservatives, who have only been in power for 2.5 years. Look at the economic stats, the slow down was already starting in the Martin years. I am loathe to blame governments in office for recession unless they have done something absolutely disastrous....Mulroney's policies during the 80s recession for example. Find me a policy that you can say actually contributed to an economic slowdown in Canada.

Dion's Green shift plan is the only plan that can generate the needed revenue and incentives to pay for a new Green collar workforce and seriously avoid a manufacturing meltdown.

It's a good long term plan. It's not an immediate cure. Ironically, the best cure to a recession would be to run a deficit. And no party has show the cojones to do that yet.

*Dion IS a fresh face, and turns the page to bring a new voice to the Liberal party. With the way the media have been acting you'd think Martin was still PM and that Liberals are the current governing party with the current problems.

Here's how the public sees it: Another Liberal leader from Quebec. Heck, I'll bet that even Quebecers see it that way....

I'm sorry, but the media need to start reporting that the Conservatives under Harper have had the government for nearly 3 years now.

They have been reporting it. Otherwise, you wouldn't have heard about it. The Liberals have just failed at opposing effectively.

This election is turning out to be quite hilarious. People ranting about a Campbell PC-like demise of the Liberal party when the party still has a good chance at pulling a minority government or even a surprise majority win (the polls really can't predict this as its razor thin).

Okay I was being a little dramatic earlier. But things aren't looking good for the Liberals. When you start seeing open commentary by Liberals against the party and the leader you know something is wrong. I could see a Liberals minority at best if they can sell the 'scary Stephen' gambit, but a majority is not looking likely.

All I can do is sit back and enjoy the show.

Then why so much panic in your posts....chill....grab a beer....life goes on...its just an election...for the federal government, one which does not touch our lives daily. I am always amazed at the lack of civic participation at the local level. People will run out to protest in front of parliament, but ask them if they attended the consultation for the new subway line and you'll get a blank look.

There is little reason to vote for the Canadian Greens. There's nothing to punish in the Liberal party anymore, Dion is a fresh face.

I have little respect for Greens when they should be voting Liberal these days. I understand Greens have a slightly more centrist economic platform compared with the NDP, but so do the Liberals.

Why the hate on for the Greens? I happen to believe in democracy. And I believe that fresh faces are what keep democracy....well, fresh. They draw votes from all three major parties. In fact, I'd bet that they draw in more Conservatives and Dippers than they do Liberals.

... about the Green party of Canada. Its fiscally more moderate than the NDP - like the Liberals - and its socially left and pro-green - again, like the Liberals.

...

In Canada the Liberals support the Canadian health system, Liberals created the Green Shift, and Liberals are socially progressive and created all kinds of social freedoms that everyday Canadians enjoy. It was under the previous Liberal government that gay marriage was granted.

...

If you're considering voting Green, why not just vote NDP and be done with it? I mean at least you'd be supporting a real party that has a greener platform than the greens.

They have policies which none of the other parties have....income splitting, direct the accelerated capital cost allowance at sustainable technologies only, increase in GST to pay for infrastructure, etc. Is it hard to understand that some of us out there might actually support these policies?


People who vote Green in Canada really are using a proxy vote to support Harper's government, especially in ridings where its close.

That's both ridiculous and insulting to voters. Is it inconceivable to believe that people should support they platform they prefer?


Brandon,

Your rhetoric is an exact example of why the Liberals are faltering in the polls. The ABC mentality didn't work last election and it won't work this time. The alarmist 'Harper = Bush II' rhetoric smacks of desperation. You would never see that from the 90s rat pack Liberals. They attacked the government on their record and they offered a strong alternative vision.

I think the Libs have strategically erred in moving too much to the left. They always campaign on the left and govern on the right (rather centre-right) but this time it would have served them well to campaign closer to the centre. While I am starting to like the Green Shift (after some convincing debates with Afransen) there are policies that just seem plain vindictive...payback for not winning the last election.

For example..... The court challenges program...not only do they want to bring it back. They want to double the funds. I happen to believe that the gov't should not be handing out funds to create legal liabilities for itself (and by extension the taxpayer). Sure that program help overcome some real struggles with language rights etc. but I think in this era we should be able to move past that. Increasingly programs like that have become slush funds for Liberal friendly law firms.... We now have a situation where a significant portion of law students don't pursue criminal or commercial law. They want to be constitutional lawyers. As one of my friends who is in law school put it, 'You'll only get famous suing the government.' I am fairly sure the Liberals would have killed that program eventually if they could have found a way. And now that the Conservatives have done it and taken the heat for it, they want to turn back the clock and double the funding?

That's one example....there's also other positions....all of a sudden change in tone on Afghanistan (after they sent us to that hilly desert in green uniforms), they want to reverse the Canadian stance on relations with Israel (and they wonder why they can't raise money in Toronto and Montreal), and on China its the reverse....they criticize Harper for caring too much about human rights. Yes that's consistent....

Some of it is plain exaggeration. The 70 billion for infrastructure. Well its only 22 billion that the Conservatives budgeted for the next four years. Ditto for defence....and that's after the Liberal induced 'decade of darkness'.

They are all over the map this election. Their platform is pulling them in so many directions. That's why they are having a tough time selling it. And there's Dion...maybe they'll finally learn to stop making it a pre-requisite to to be a Quebecer to qualify as a Liberal party leader. Their vote base is in the GTA. Check out how many GTA cabinet ministers they had relative to the other regions. And remind me again, when was the last time the Liberals had a party leader from Ontario...and from the GTA. Heck, it's been over two decades since they had a leader from outside Quebec.

This is exactly why they are bleeding support....left, right and centre (where it really counts). With the exception of a handful of friends, most of my friends and family, who all voted Liberal in the past election...ditto provincially), are voting for the Conservatives. And though I might still vote Liberals in the end (I still haven't decided...waiting for all the platforms)....I can certainly see why they are having trouble getting elected.

As the natural governing party of Canada, they somehow forgot that once in a while, they actually have to campaign and tell people why they deserve a shot at governing....this time around they just suck at that.
 
Yes keith, you're not voting Liberal. Believe it or not, you've actually told me before. My post was not directed at you in any way, it was a general statement of why I think Dion is the better choice.
 
Yes keith, you're not voting Liberal. Believe it or not, you've actually told me before. My post was not directed at you in any way, it was a general statement of why I think Dion is the better choice.

And my post was not so much directed at you but explaining to you why they are struggling. In my view, their biggest blunder was picking another Quebecer. I think Rae or Kennedy would have been better picks. My pick would have been Iggy. Any of those three would have really been able to politick toe-to-toe with Harper.

I also suspect some of their struggle has to do with the US election. Liberals compare Dion to Obama and say what gives.....Conservatives compare Harper to McCain and especially Palin and say 'Thank God!'.
 
Rae has too much baggage to be leader. He needs to create a new history for himself in cabinet before he tries to run.

Kennedy is promising, but he's not really ready for primetime yet. From what I recall, his french is weak.

That is to say, I really doubt that either of these men would have been able to beat Harper. Ignatief, perhaps, could have.

I think Obama is overrated, and that there will be a Sarkozy-eqsue (if anyone follows French politics) fall from grace if/when he is elected. Not that the men are similar, but that expectations were impossibly high. Both France and the US face such daunting challenges that even a merely okay job governing will seriously dash hopes.
 
I think Obama is overrated, and that there will be a Sarkozy-eqsue (if anyone follows French politics) fall from grace if/when he is elected. Not that the men are similar, but that expectations were impossibly high. Both France and the US face such daunting challenges that even a merely okay job governing will seriously dash hopes.

+1

I think he get's a free pass on a lot of his policies too because of his personality. Imagine if McCain had come out and said in the beginning that the US should bomb Pakistan..... That being said, charisma is a quantity that is required sometimes....

In our case, I think a lot of fortunes are resting on the debate. Dion could dispel his media image if he does well in the debate...or he could confirm every English Canadian's stereotype of the pandering Quebec Liberal. For the Liberal party's sake and that of Canadian democracy, I hope he's brushing up on his English and debate skills.
 
Toronto Star - NDP surge slows, Liberals hanging on

September 29, 2008
THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA – A new poll suggests that the NDP surge of recent days is slowing and that there's still life left in the battered Liberal brand.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests that concerns about a Conservative majority government may have created some breathing room for the Liberals.

But Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson says it's a fluid situation that could change with Sunday's release of the NDP platform and this week's televised leaders' debates.

The poll suggests the Tories have 36 per cent support nationally, with the Liberals at 26 per cent, the NDP at 19, the Greens at nine and the Bloc at eight.

The survey also indicates the Tories are leading in Ontario and British Columbia, with the Liberals ahead in the Atlantic provinces.

The poll surveyed a total of 1,250 people Thursday through Sunday and is considered accurate to within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 
Now that everyone is done bickering...

I'm curious to know how the polls will change now that stock markets around the world just dropped about 5% (TSX 7%).

Harper said the economy was fine... He's going to take a beating. We're looking at a minority government now for sure, which might actually be the best for a shaky economy.
 
Now that everyone is done bickering...

I'm curious to know how the polls will change now that stock markets around the world just dropped about 5% (TSX 7%).

Harper said the economy was fine... He's going to take a beating. We're looking at a minority government now for sure, which might actually be the best for a shaky economy.

Yeah...except it's pretty hard to sell a 'new tax' with a recession approaching.... Try explaining the merits of the green shift to an Ontario auto worker or a Quebec aerospace worker.... Sadly for Dion, it's the right idea at the wrong time....
 
Then why so much panic in your posts....chill....grab a beer....life goes on...its just an election...for the federal government, one which does not touch our lives daily. I am always amazed at the lack of civic participation at the local level. People will run out to protest in front of parliament, but ask them if they attended the consultation for the new subway line and you'll get a blank look.


Ain't that the truth!
 
In other news the Bloc is surging now in Quebec, so there goes Harper's majority. Liberals have a chance again.

The shock of it all.
 

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