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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Downtown condo market is shows signs of life

Toronto's condo boom is slowing, but the downtown is showing signs of life.
RICHARD LAUTENS/TORONTO STAR
By Susan Pigg | Tue Jan 22 2013
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Some Toronto realtors are seeing an unexpected surge in condo buyers scouring the market post Christmas and the return of a phenomenon not seen in months — bidding wars.
“I was shocked,” says ReMax realtor Peter Krpan who advised one couple, first-time buyers, that the softening condo market meant they could take their time and bid low on almost any downtown unit they wanted.
Instead, the couple found themselves outbid this month on their first choice, an 800-square foot condo listed for $324,000 on Queen’s Quay.
Their “backup” — an older, 660-square-foot condo on Victoria St. that had been on the market for 71 days — suddenly had three bidders and was gone before they could even put in an offer.
“I thought, ‘This can’t be happening. This isn’t in keeping with what we’ve been seeing the last few months at all,” says Krpan.
After a dramatic softening in sales and prices that started last spring and was exacerbated by tighter mortgage lending rules that left many first-time buyers on the sidelines, some Toronto realtors are seeing some signs of life in a market that, by December, was virtually dead.
Bidding wars have also broken out the last two weeks in some prime Toronto neighbourhoods where the inventory of houses for sale remains low, such as the west-end Junction Triangle and the east end Beach.
Even the well-supplied condo market is facing inventory issues, say veteran condo realtors. It’s not that there’s a shortage of units, per se, especially given the recent condo boom and the dramatic softening of demand just since spring.
It’s that too much of what’s for sale now are small, poorly laid-out units, aimed at investors, rather than the average buyer, realtors say.
“I think people who have been standing on the sidelines are realizing that we’re not having a crash. We’ve had a lot of clients come out of the woodwork the last couple of weeks,” says downtown realtor Joanna Kalbarczyk.
Kalbarczyk’s client, a young woman, paid over the $323,000 asking price for the older condo on Victoria St. that had three offers. She declined to say how much more because the deal is still being finalized.
Realtors, who have been anxiously awaiting the normally busy spring market, are hopeful this surge means the market is in pause mode — as it was in the nine months after the 2008 recession — rather than a continued decline.
But no one really knows.
Which is part of the reason ReMax has undertaken its first Canadian Homebuying Trends Survey, trying to gauge who’s buying and how that could impact the overall housing market.
The survey, released Tuesday, notes that “purchasing patterns have evolved, with a more conservative, fiscally-responsible purchaser moving to the forefront,” says Gurinder Sandhu, executive vice president and regional director of ReMax Ontario-Atlantic Canada.
First-time buyers are “experiencing a period of readjustment,” says Sandhu, in light of tougher lending rules from Ottawa that cut maximum amortizations from 30 to 25 years and put restrictions on the types of properties the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. will insure where buyers don’t have a 20 per cent down payment.
First-time buyers will account for about 30 per cent of purchasers over the next two years, notes the report.
While the report doesn’t break down local markets, it too confirms a significant shift to the downtown core over the suburbs in Ontario, as confirmed by a TD Economics report, also released Tuesday.
That report, by TD economist Francis Fong, notes that double-digit job growth in downtown Toronto from 2006 to 2011 has followed in the footsteps of all those folks who are now opting to live downtown, rather than in the suburbs, close to transit lines and amenities in what’s now become a vital, vibrant world-class city.
 
To me the key here is $400/sq.ft. Even if it went for $425/sq.ft. let's say, it shows that a "liveable 800" sq.ft. condo will sell.

Compare this at $324K to today a new Precon of 500 to 550 sq.ft. for the same price.

This does not change the fact even if it is true and can be extrapolated to the whole resale market that reasonably priced relatively inexpensive properties in the core in which a couple can live can fetch $400 or even $500/sq.ft. Whether they can get $600+ is the question.

Also, I think the most telling statement of the article is the following: "It’s that too much of what’s for sale now are small, poorly laid-out units, aimed at investors, rather than the average buyer, realtors say."

In a market where there is enough product, poorly laid out units are going to languish. The past decade has seen indiscriminate buying both as to location and layout in the rush to "own". Once supply outpaces demand well located reasonably laid out units will sell. They perhaps won't get the premiums (or perhaps they will as evidenced by the above sale) but they will sell as there is demand for this.

Also, I think there are other locations than Toronto (hitting $600+/sq.ft.) which perhaps make sense to our international buyers.

Think USA or perhaps a recovery in some of the Southern European countries whose real estate has been hit hard?
 
Article in the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-itself-into-a-housing-crisis/article7589164/


Is Canada talking itself into a housing crisis? Add to ...

LARRY MACDONALD

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Jan. 22 2013, 4:00 AM EST

Last updated Tuesday, Jan. 22 2013, 6:49 AM EST
37 comments



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Little was heard of housing bubbles in Canada up to about a year ago. Now, predictions of crashes are on the front cover of Maclean’s and other publications. One might wonder if we are talking ourselves into a housing miasma, even though the fundamentals don’t point to one.

Consider affordability. The Bank of Canada’s housing affordability index shows that newly built standard houses are as affordable as 10 years ago. And the Royal Bank of Canada’s affordability indexes for existing housing only “exceed their long-term averages modestly, although the national figures are exaggerated by extremely poor affordability in Vancouver.”
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Moreover, credible analysts don’t see a U.S.-style crash. Professor Robert Shiller told CBC News in September that Canada should be spared because its banks have low subprime exposure. And Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg wrote in a November note “that the U.S. plunge five years ago followed years of credit-tightening moves… anyone think that [the Bank of Canada] is going to raise interest rates 450 basis points with inflation barely above 1 per cent?”

Yet, some media sources are now painting a dire prognosis for Canadian housing. It brings to mind the 2012 paper, “What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets,” written by Mr. Shiller and co-authors, Karl E. Case and Anne Thompson.

The paper looks at press coverage leading up to the U.S. housing collapse and documents the increasing frequency of articles depicting U.S. housing as a bubble. June of 2005 was particularly busy, with cover stories in the Economist, Barron’s, and Time Magazine.

Mr. Shiller and co-authors argue the prominence of the bubble theme produced “a turning point in public thinking” that led to prices turning down, beginning in 2006. A similar point was made by Mr. Shiller in a 2006 paper, in which he wrote: “there are reasons to suspect that the price changes … are related to public swings in opinions rather than fundamentals.”

Could Canada similarly be talking itself into a housing crash (possibly followed by a financial crisis and years of stagnation)? Or will the fundamentals usher in the soft landing that the federal government is trying to achieve through tighter mortgage rules? Messrs. Shiller and Rosenberg believe the fundamentals will win because the Canadian setting is more supportive. Let’s hope so, if only so that Canadians are spared the trauma Americans have experienced.

READERS: Do you see signs of a crash? Or do you just hear the talk and worry?
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37 comments


WHY IS IT THAT WE ARE TALKING OURSELVES INTO A HOUSING CRISIS FOR TRYING TO POINT OUT ECONOMIC AND FUNDAMENTAL REALITY AND YET WHEN IT WAS GOING UP STEADFASTLY, WE WERE NOT TALKING OURSELVES INTO AN OVERINFLATED HOUSING MARKET?
Remember, we were not seeing anything but cheerleading when prices were going up and that they would go up forever but if we say something negative we are "talking" ourselves into a crisis.
 
And from the National Post today:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/0...ho-boomers-flock-towards-urban-centre-report/

Downtown Toronto’s pace of population growth triples, outpacing suburbs’ as Echo Boomers flock towards urban centre: report

Megan O'Toole | Jan 22, 2013 3:55 AM ET
More from Megan O'Toole | @megan_otoole
The report finds that “Echo Boomers,” the children of post-war Baby Boomers, have increasingly eschewed the suburbs for proximity to transit, workplaces and amenities in downtown Toronto.
Ontario Tourism Marketing Partnership Corp The report finds that “Echo Boomers,” the children of post-war Baby Boomers, have increasingly eschewed the suburbs for proximity to transit, workplaces and amenities in downtown Toronto.




DOWNTOWN-RISE

Toronto has reached a “substantial turning point” after five years of massive growth in the downtown core, says a new report that also raises questions about whether the localized condo and employment boom will be sustainable in the decades ahead.

The report by TD Economics, to be released Tuesday morning, cites a dramatic surge of young professionals into the core over the last five years.

The pace of population growth has tripled since the previous three census periods and — for the first time in decades — outpaced the suburbs.

“This is a turning point for the city,” report author Francis Fong said.

“I feel like we’ve hit critical mass and now we’re sort of on our way to becoming a city like New York or London.

“We’re on our way; we’re not there yet.”

The report finds that “Echo Boomers,” the children of post-war Baby Boomers, have increasingly eschewed the suburbs for proximity to transit, workplaces and amenities.

Recognizing the opportunity, more employers have started setting up shop in the downtown core, reversing a decades-long trend of businesses opting to locate in outlying municipalities to avoid the high costs of downtown real-estate, the report states.

Since 2009, 4.7 million square feet of office space have been built in Toronto, compared with 3.9 million in the surrounding suburbs.

“If we look at the previous few decades, so much of the development of the city was driven by the Baby Boomers; what they wanted, what they demanded,” Mr. Fong said.

“Now, [their children] want to be close to transit, they want to be close to restaurants, they want to be close to nightlife.

“They want it all … It’s a selling point for businesses to locate here if they want to be able to tap that talent pool.”

The data is not surprising, Mr. Fong says, considering other generational shifts: Echo Boomers are far more likely to switch jobs or careers than their parents were.

Because of this increased movement, “it’s a practical choice to be in a transit hub.”

Since 2000, the report adds, nearly 50,000 condo units had been built, sold and occupied south of Bloor Street; by late 2011, an additional 90,000 had been approved throughout the city, mostly planned in the downtown core.

The growth presents a number of challenges, not least of which is transit: “Rising population density, specifically along transit lines, will put serious pressure on the city’s already-strained road and public transit infrastructure,” the report notes.

There is also uncertainty as to whether the current trends will hold.

On one hand, Baby Boomers may begin downsizing and shifting yet more of Greater Toronto’s population to the core.

On the other hand, as Echo Boomers begin raising families, some may opt to return to the relative quiet and big backyards of the suburbs — leading to a downtown bust.

“We don’t know what those Echo Boomer families will demand,” Mr. Fong said.

“Will we see another wave out into the suburbs? It’s possible.”

National Post



This is the constant tug of war between the Burbs and the City. Can/will it continue? I really don't know but this is the argument for those who see the Core becoming "the place" to be.

Of course, the death of the suburb has been predicted for at least a couple if not more decades now and the opposite happens.

I wonder whether these "echo-boomers" will want to be in the city when they have families, or if they can afford it? I appreciate they are delaying having children but I expect this trend too will slow down or they will have kids later and there will be a decade shift but then it will assume the normal curve of population and housing characteristics, perhaps just with the "echo's being 4 or 10 years older" doing the things the Boomers did a decade earlier.
 
New house prices soared 16 per cent in GTA in 2012: Report
Published on Wednesday January 23, 2013
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RICHARD BUCHAN/THE CANADIAN PRESS New house prices across the Greater Toronto Area are still on the rise, according to a new study.

By Susan Pigg Business Reporter
11 Comments
Provincial policies aimed at curbing urban sprawl played out big time in 2012, helping push the price of new single-family homes across the GTA up a record 16 per cent in a year, according to a new building industry report.
At the same time the index price of a brand new house reached an unprecedented $632,868 last year, sales of newly constructed detached, semis, row and townhouses dropped about 20 per cent, to their second-lowest levels since 2000, says the annual report released Wednesday by real estate research company RealNet Canada Inc. on behalf of GTA house and condo developers.
“Land constraints, regulatory requirements and a complex approval process fraught with delays are seriously challenging the vitality of the low-rise sector, as well as housing choice for the new home buyer,” says Steve Deveaux, first vice-chair of the Building Industry and Land Development Association and an executive with Tribute Communities.
With development charges alone in municipalities like Oakville adding about $65,000 to the price of a new home, buyers are suffering sticker shocker and left with no other options, in many cases, than highrise condos, he added.
RealNet and BILD say it’s time that provincial, municipal and federal housing officials sat down with developers to look at where the housing market is headed.
“Vancouver is about 15 years ahead of us,” says RealNet president George Carras, pointing to the priciest, although softening, housing market in Canada, which has been similarly impacted by land shortages. Those shortages have helped push the gap between high-demand houses and condos to about $700,000.
That price gap hit a record $196,844 in the GTA in 2012, more than double the historic average of almost $87,000 as condo prices softened — they averaged $436,024 as of Dec. 31 — and house prices soared, the RealNet report notes.
“While it’s hard for most people to miss the growing number of new condominiums, it’s easy to miss the shrinking number of ground-related developments across the GTA, and therefore misunderstand the market,” says Carras who has been analyzing the dramatically changing GTA new home market for almost 20 years.
The highrise boom went bust in 2012, with condo sales down almost 35 per cent over 2011 as demand softened, according to RealNet figures. The low-rise sector — new detached, semis, row and townhouses — saw a 19.8 per cent decline in sales, but for other reasons.
“You can’t sell what you don’t have,” notes Carras, pointing to the lack of enough land and development-ready sites largely for new suburban subdivisions.
Other numbers in the report paint an interesting picture of what’s become, just since the province introduced its growth and greenbelt policies in 2005, a “tale of two housing markets,” says Carras:
• Low-rise house sales, which once accounted for about 75 per cent of the market, made up just 43 per cent of the $17.8 billion in new home sales across the GTA last year
• New house prices have climbed 44 per cent just over the last four years as supply has decreased by 52 per cent
• New condos averaged 804 square feet in 2012 ($542 per square foot across the GTA), just 16 square feet smaller than 2011, as developers realized that size matters and consumers have hit a wall.
• Just since late 2009 new condos have lost the equivalent of a bedroom — 100 square feet — as developers cut space to keep cost increases, impacted by new charges such as the HST, down.
• A record 60,713 units in 237 condo projects were under construction across the GTA in 2012. Some 88 per cent of those units were sold before construction even started.
“The demand is still very, very high for ground-related new homes, but the biggest issue now is affordability,” says Deveaux.
“It just means people’s housing choices are going to be limited and the highrise market has become the new entry-level product for people wanting to get into the housing market.”
Thanks to the softening condo market, the index price of a new high-rise home was up just 0.4 per cent from 2011, the RealNet report notes.
But that flattening of prices at the same time single-family homes are headed into the stratosphere means the gap in price between the two is likely to escalate, says Carras.
The real fear is that the severe lack of land, escalating municipal development charges and shortage of development-ready sites has happened so quickly, it’s had results — such as price escalations — not intended by the provincial greenbelt and growth plans, developers say.
And there appears to be no end in sight as battles over what GTA lands outside of the protected greenbelt can be developed (and how) remain bogged down before the Ontario Municipal Board.
 
WHY IS IT THAT WE ARE TALKING OURSELVES INTO A HOUSING CRISIS FOR TRYING TO POINT OUT ECONOMIC AND FUNDAMENTAL REALITY AND YET WHEN IT WAS GOING UP STEADFASTLY, WE WERE NOT TALKING OURSELVES INTO AN OVERINFLATED HOUSING MARKET?
Remember, we were not seeing anything but cheerleading when prices were going up and that they would go up forever but if we say something negative we are "talking" ourselves into a crisis.


i love that argument by the pro-inflated r/e value cheerleaders ... no complaints from them when prices get continually pushed up for any and all reasons,

but when supply has exceeded demand, and economic fundamentals/metrics don't warrant the valuations causing the market to re-adjust back to the historical average.

sure public opinion has changed but it's not based on nothing.
real numbers/metrics/fundamentals are used to support the change in ideology and slowly it's crept into the minds of the mainstream public subplanting the constant unfettered cheerleading that was there before.

unfortunately, that's partly why boom-busts happen.

TO won't fall off the cliff immediately, but I can see years of stagnant or slightly negative (-5>-10%) price growth annually.


This is the constant tug of war between the Burbs and the City. Can/will it continue? I really don't know but this is the argument for those who see the Core becoming "the place" to be.

Of course, the death of the suburb has been predicted for at least a couple if not more decades now and the opposite happens.

I wonder whether these "echo-boomers" will want to be in the city when they have families, or if they can afford it? I appreciate they are delaying having children but I expect this trend too will slow down or they will have kids later and there will be a decade shift but then it will assume the normal curve of population and housing characteristics, perhaps just with the "echo's being 4 or 10 years older" doing the things the Boomers did a decade earlier.

i know of one couple in their mid-30s sold their dt core house for a princely sum and moved to port credit for the space to raise their child. they are/were as urban professional as could typically be but they chose to move to the burbs for the extra square footage and yard so it still happens.
 
cdr:

In Florida I remember the smugness of people telling me that prices would only go up. I sold a property there in 2003 because it had doubled in 2 years from 2001 and then was upset when it continued to go up to 2006 only to be sold at virtually the same price in USD ( much less in Canadian dollar terms) in 2012.

I told them this would end badly but everyone told me that I did not understand and that Florida was the place to be.

The worst as we talked was the National Association of Realtors, not the individuals, but their parent organization telling everyone it was a lull, transient, a buying opportunity...and only acknowledging the full depth by around 2011 when even 5 year olds realized there was something "wrong".

It is human nature to find explanations of why things deviate from the norm/mean. There are reasons to perhaps think things will change....

The youth and more single family households which may not wish the "burbs". The worsening traffic congestion. The price of oil could spike.

However, a subsequent government could decide to "undo" some of the green areas and suddenly land would be plentiful and house prices could drop.

The interesting thing in the article posted by Marsh was the spread of almost 200K between houses and condos (around double its previous average) and $700K in Vancouver. Homes will become a dream for a lot of echo's, at least in the city. Hence, condos may end up being the de facto housing solution for those who choose not to move to the burbs.

However, I think for a lot of us, when one has children, priorities change as in your example of the urban profession above.
 
Here's an interesting article in the Globe & Mail today which pretty much sums up my sentiments on the current state of the Toronto real estate market. Some seemingly decent properties are sitting on the market at reasonable asking prices while others, which may or may not be exceptional properties, are selling for over asking. Colour me confused as I watch from the sidelines.

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...buyers-scratching-their-heads/article7756846/

In Toronto, an erratic real estate market leaves sellers and buyers scratching their heads

Carolyn Ireland
The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Jan. 24 2013, 7:37 AM EST

Of all the zany things happening in Toronto’s real estate market last week, perhaps the most mind-boggling was the melee that erupted over a pleasant yet unremarkable condo unit near Yonge and Davisville.

Seven parties leapt into the competition and pushed the sale price to $420,000 – or 8 per cent above the asking price of $389,000.

David Fleming of Bosley Real Estate Ltd., is one agent who was staggered by the deal. He wrote about it in his Toronto Realty Blog.

Mr. Fleming says there’s too much choice in the condo market right now for it to make sense for buyers to compete over a run-of-the-mill unit.

“I would never in this market tell a buyer to get involved in a bidding war on a condo,†he said in an interview.

“A nice house in Riverdale maybe – but not a condo.â€

But that’s just one deal and Mr. Fleming says it could be an outlier. The point is that the market is extremely erratic at the moment.

The numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board show that sales edged up 2.4 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area in the first half of January compared with the same period last year. The average selling price rose by 4 per cent in the same period.

But the market was – and continues to be – choppy and weird. Some properties stagnate for weeks and then sell at a significant discount of the asking price, while others sell overnight for more. Mr. Fleming raises another example of a house in the west end that had an asking price just less than $550,000, which is a segment of the market that draws lots of buyers.

His clients were primed to make an offer on Tuesday, which was the night set aside for reviewing bids. But before they had the chance, the house was sold late last Friday when a bully offer landed in front of the sellers.

So-called bullies usually offer an amount so substantial that the sellers are tempted to snatch at it. But in this case, Mr. Fleming points out, the bully got the house for $580,000. It’s a great deal for the buyer, he figures, but the sellers left a substantial amount of money on the table.

“I would have bought that house at that price and I’m not even in the market.â€

His clients, he says, would have offered $610,000 or $620,000.

“That was frustrating. My clients are crushed.â€

Elli Davis, an agent with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., cites the example of a house in Moore Park that received two offers and sold for $2.375-million. That marks a $176,000 premium above the asking price.

Mr. Fleming also had a buyer interested in that one, but the house sold within a day of coming on the market – before they even got over there to see it.

“Here I was telling him that I didn’t think the property would move.â€

Mr. Fleming says lots of listings are sitting. He can’t imagine another condo unit getting seven offers in the current market.

“There are a million cookie-cutter condos out there that no one cares about.â€

Ms. Davis says she tallied eight deals in January, 2012, but so far this year she has only recorded four. Still, she hopes to make up the difference by the end of the month.

“I’ve got a few in the works. Buyers just seem to be taking a little bit more time.â€

Ms. Davis says some buyers are speculating that prices may fall and wonder if they should wait. But others are willing to move if they see the right property.

“They want that security that the market isn’t going to totally fall out of bed.â€

She’s advising sellers to set a realistic asking price instead of setting an eye-catching price in the hope of sparking a bidding war. But she also cautions against asking too much. Prices have softened a bit since last spring, she says.

“If you’re way too high, people will ignore you and buy something that’s not.â€

Mr. Fleming says the lack of snow in January may have helped the market because house hunters had no trouble tramping around. And even the arctic temperatures this week didn’t deter the buyers of 76 Langley Ave. in Riverdale. The home, priced at $949,000, sold Tuesday night for $1,129,000. “So much for the impending real estate crash,†he says. But the volatile nature of the market makes it difficult for agents to predict how the spring will shapeup.

“One day you might get five offers on a house and the next week a house down the street gets zero.â€

~~~
 
Again interesting readings but anecdotal 1 off situations.

Mr. Carney probably just helped prolong the real estate market by a year with his statement that interest rates will not go up until 2014...read late 2014 or 2015 so people will get off the fence and I suspect the spring market will be quite busy.
 
Maybe in terms for speculators needing to sell. Its tough to see speculators investing in our RE market going forward, though. The numbers keep getting worse. So all in all, this will simply help with the soft landing theory.

For those needing housing, rates remaining the same would encourage them to wait if they can. If rate increases were on the horizon that would encourage them to buy now, versus waiting.

I believe with the recent changes to lending, we have taken out the speculators and riskier purchasers. So this should leave us with a truer sense of real demand.
 
Lots of buyers out there. I expect a robust spring when they realize the sky aint falling and the US economy and stock market is in full recovery mode. No crash in 2013.

I think its safe to say that in Canada we at a saturation point in terms of home ownership. I believe we are at 70%, which historically is near or a new high.

Best case scenario for the housing market in Canada, is a slow re-adjustment in prices.

For the first time in a long time, Canada needs a lower dollar, and as the international community awakens to our fiscal situation, our dollar will drop. This will help save jobs in Alberta and in Ontario.
 
But 2013 is a significant year because it's 5 years since the 40 year, 0 down mortgages were eliminated which will now come up for renewal. Shouldn't this, in theory, result in a lot of people who have to renew at 25 years being unable to afford the much higher monthly payments and having no choice but to sell?
 
But 2013 is a significant year because it's 5 years since the 40 year, 0 down mortgages were eliminated which will now come up for renewal. Shouldn't this, in theory, result in a lot of people who have to renew at 25 years being unable to afford the much higher monthly payments and having no choice but to sell?

i think if they are to renew with the same financial institution, these people could renew at 35 years but that gives the client less negotiation room for rates.
 
Agree.
Also, interest rates are even lower than 5 years ago...who'd have thunk?
And they have more equity if they bought 5 years ago.
So assuming they left the equity and did not take out home equity loans etc...those people from 5 years ago right now are fine.
 
i thought those who had taken out 40 year mortgages were still a fairly small proportion of total mortgage holders. Does anyone know?
 

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