GenerationW
Senior Member
As if Toronto has been any less short-sighted about the DRL. Metrolinx could hardly do any worse.
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TheTigerMaster
Superstar
How has Toronto been short sighted about the DRL? Toronto surely didn't need it back in the 90s and early 2000s when TTC usage was the lowest it's been in decades. The only reasons we need it now is because B-Y station is approaching capacity and because of Yonge North, which is projected to bring an astounding 25,000 pphdpd through the current terminus (thats something like 60% of route capacity, by the way).
Line 2 moves a little less than 25,000 pphpd at peak hour. So Yonge North is essentially equivalent to dumping everyone on Line 2 into Finch Station. That's why we need the Relief Line now.
BurlOak
Senior Member
It was just over 4 years ago (March 2011) that it looked that transit on Toronto was back on track. Ford and McGuinty just agreed to a compromise that would be acceptable to both the left and right of the political spectrum. Savings from this proposal from the $8.2B would be used for other transit projects (Sheppard subway). Shortly before (December 2010), metrolinx stated that they would be reporting on an elevated Eglinton line.
But then 10 short months later (January 2012), the report on the Eglinton line never happened, Council took the transit file from Ford, did a quick dog-and-pony show study to promote the old plans, and reverted (for a short time) back to the LRT plan.
What happened next under the control of the TTC Board, Council, and the Province was truly a disaster. First Council voted to kill the Eglinton plan (March 2012) without a report – one that was created just 3 months after the vote (and still inexplicably not considering the elevated portion). In the fall (2012), Council voted again to re-affirm their commitment to the LRT, followed shortly by Provincial transportation minister (July 2013) encouraging Toronto to reconsider their LRT choice, and they agree. Then the Provincial government runs a key by-election (August 2013) as subway champions. Council then votes (fall 2013) to build a “Scarborough subwayâ€.
In late 2013 (December), we learn from Michael Schabas that Metrolinx hid the Eglinton crosstown report from Toronto Council and voters during the 2012 LRT votes and the “Scarborough subway†fiasco. It was only release through FOI. Then John Lorinc determines (spring 2014) through his own FOI that the Liberals fingerprints were all over the plan to resurrect the subway. Then due to continued public frustration with the transit plans, Mayor to be Tory comes up with (May 2014) a SmartTrack plan.
Where we were 4 years ago : Spending and extra $1.5B burying the Eglinton LRT – and looking like it would only be $0.3 to $0.5B when elevation is considered.
Where we are now : Spending an extra $1.5B to $2B (over the LRT) for a Scarborough subway and another $1.5B to $2B for tunneling SmartTrack under Eglinton West (instead of elevating the ECLRT and taking SmartTrack along the GO corridor to Brampton). This is a total of close to $3B extra spending and a loss of 4 years of progress.
It still looks like the least expensive (and fastest to construct) alternative is to tear up a few hundred metres of the soon to be constructed tunnel near the launch shaft (we don't want to delay the launch) and relocate the tunnel to the south side of Leslie. Then build Eglinton along the south side and then elevated from DVP to Kennedy. Of course, this will now cost maybe $700M extra for elevation and relocation, but it does save the $1.5B to $2B on SRT vs. Scarborough subway. The currently planned construction contract would terminate at the the tunnel portal, and the elevated portion would become a separate contract. The tunnelled portion is on the critical path, so the elevated portion afford a one or two year delay and still allow the line to be built for 2021. The EA is already complete for this entire route, so only minor revisions need to be filed for elevation (as was done near Black Creek, and similar to what was proposed near Leslie). This entire elevated poriton could probably be completed before a Scarborough subway construction even starts (i.e. completing an EA and putting together a contract).
But then 10 short months later (January 2012), the report on the Eglinton line never happened, Council took the transit file from Ford, did a quick dog-and-pony show study to promote the old plans, and reverted (for a short time) back to the LRT plan.
What happened next under the control of the TTC Board, Council, and the Province was truly a disaster. First Council voted to kill the Eglinton plan (March 2012) without a report – one that was created just 3 months after the vote (and still inexplicably not considering the elevated portion). In the fall (2012), Council voted again to re-affirm their commitment to the LRT, followed shortly by Provincial transportation minister (July 2013) encouraging Toronto to reconsider their LRT choice, and they agree. Then the Provincial government runs a key by-election (August 2013) as subway champions. Council then votes (fall 2013) to build a “Scarborough subwayâ€.
In late 2013 (December), we learn from Michael Schabas that Metrolinx hid the Eglinton crosstown report from Toronto Council and voters during the 2012 LRT votes and the “Scarborough subway†fiasco. It was only release through FOI. Then John Lorinc determines (spring 2014) through his own FOI that the Liberals fingerprints were all over the plan to resurrect the subway. Then due to continued public frustration with the transit plans, Mayor to be Tory comes up with (May 2014) a SmartTrack plan.
Where we were 4 years ago : Spending and extra $1.5B burying the Eglinton LRT – and looking like it would only be $0.3 to $0.5B when elevation is considered.
Where we are now : Spending an extra $1.5B to $2B (over the LRT) for a Scarborough subway and another $1.5B to $2B for tunneling SmartTrack under Eglinton West (instead of elevating the ECLRT and taking SmartTrack along the GO corridor to Brampton). This is a total of close to $3B extra spending and a loss of 4 years of progress.
It still looks like the least expensive (and fastest to construct) alternative is to tear up a few hundred metres of the soon to be constructed tunnel near the launch shaft (we don't want to delay the launch) and relocate the tunnel to the south side of Leslie. Then build Eglinton along the south side and then elevated from DVP to Kennedy. Of course, this will now cost maybe $700M extra for elevation and relocation, but it does save the $1.5B to $2B on SRT vs. Scarborough subway. The currently planned construction contract would terminate at the the tunnel portal, and the elevated portion would become a separate contract. The tunnelled portion is on the critical path, so the elevated portion afford a one or two year delay and still allow the line to be built for 2021. The EA is already complete for this entire route, so only minor revisions need to be filed for elevation (as was done near Black Creek, and similar to what was proposed near Leslie). This entire elevated poriton could probably be completed before a Scarborough subway construction even starts (i.e. completing an EA and putting together a contract).
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Why are persons on the left side of the political spectrum supporting the most fiscally conservative options? And why are conservatives supporting the least fiscally conservative options? Sounds like a good case study for a political scientist.
Or perhaps the left/right dichotomy isn't an accurate representation of the situation.
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TheTigerMaster
Superstar
The fastest and cheapest option option is to build Eglinton Crosstown LRT, Finch West LRT, Sheppard East LRT, Scarborough LRT,SmartTrack as planned. Scarborough Subway will be replaced by SmartTrack and Scarborough LRT.
Elevating Eglinton Crosstown LRT will cost hundreds of millions of dollars more and years of EAs and designing. This will delay the opening of 5 Eglinton Line.
We already know how long Scarborough LRT will take to build. It will be done years before Scarborough Subway,SmartTrack or an elevated Eglinton Crosstown LRT.
ST will replace Scarborough Subway. It will be done sooner and for a fraction of the cost.
Sheppard East LRT and Finch West LRT will proceed as planned.
The aforementioned option will bring the contribution from Toronto at approximately $2.5 Billion, and thats only to pay for SmartTrack.
The Eglinton Crosstown LRT elevation option would (based on your estimate) bring Toronto's contribution to $3.2 Billion (Eglinton Crosstown LRT elevation + ST).
Our current plan (Eglinton Crosstown LRT, Finch West LRT, Sheppard East LRT, Scarborough Subway, ST) will cost $3.4 Billion. This plan is unviable under current rules, as it exceeds Toronto's debt limit. Perhaps the debit limit will be arbitrarily increase. Planners and Scarborough councillors are also concerned that SmartTrackwill reduce usage of Scarborough Subway.
The contribution from the province remains static across all options.
Elevating Eglinton Crosstown LRT will cost hundreds of millions of dollars more and years of EAs and designing. This will delay the opening of 5 Eglinton Line.
We already know how long Scarborough LRT will take to build. It will be done years before Scarborough Subway,SmartTrack or an elevated Eglinton Crosstown LRT.
ST will replace Scarborough Subway. It will be done sooner and for a fraction of the cost.
Sheppard East LRT and Finch West LRT will proceed as planned.
The aforementioned option will bring the contribution from Toronto at approximately $2.5 Billion, and thats only to pay for SmartTrack.
The Eglinton Crosstown LRT elevation option would (based on your estimate) bring Toronto's contribution to $3.2 Billion (Eglinton Crosstown LRT elevation + ST).
Our current plan (Eglinton Crosstown LRT, Finch West LRT, Sheppard East LRT, Scarborough Subway, ST) will cost $3.4 Billion. This plan is unviable under current rules, as it exceeds Toronto's debt limit. Perhaps the debit limit will be arbitrarily increase. Planners and Scarborough councillors are also concerned that SmartTrackwill reduce usage of Scarborough Subway.
The contribution from the province remains static across all options.
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BurlOak
Senior Member
Did you factor in that nobody (not Mayor Tory, Former Mayor Ford, Former Council, Current Council-which is little changed from the previous one, The Premier, the Minister of Transportation , the Provincial Opposition) wants this and there would be countless delays as alternative plans are brought forward, and everyone would drag their feet since nobody would want to be seen to support this plan.
Vancouver built the 19km Canada line and 10 km long Evergreen line (planned) in 4 years. I think we should be able to do a 7 km line in the same time. And as the Black Creek section showed us, the public would gladly accept an EA amendment if it meant getting transit out from the street. Add 2 years for design work (actually investigation, because it would likely be Design-Build).
Yup, that would be a saw off.
My estimate has $700M extra being spent on elevating Eglinton, but $1.5B to $2B being saved by not doing the Scarborough Subway. Another $700M needed to elevate ECLRT from Mount Dennis to YYZ. Thus, the City actually reduces their contribution (marginally) compare to the current Eglinton/SSSmartTrack plan, but also reduces the cost of SmartTrack by $2B.
Yes, I agree. that's why I made sure that less was being spent.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Nobody? The plurality of Torontoninas support the plan, and only one Councillor needed to flip their vote to defeat the SSE. You have funny definition of "nobody".
Rainforest
Senior Member
It can be explained, factoring in a few other considerations.
Conservatives would rather spend as little as possible on transit. But since they have to make some investments in transit, they tend to concentrate those investments on projects that are most likely to give them votes. Higher-order transit is more likely to bring votes, because a group of residents sees a big improvement. Small improvements spread across a larger area do not bring votes, because the residents don't pay much attention to them, and vote based on non-transit issues. Therefore, conservatives like high-order transit.
Leftists would like to spend a lot on transit, but they also want to experiment with transit-based social engineering. The current way of thinking is that LRT, and to a lesser degree BRT, is more suitable for such social engineering than subways; thus the subways fell out of favor.
salsa
Senior Member
You must be delusional to think that transit was "back on track" when Ford got elected.
BurlOak
Senior Member
Not quite "back on track", but at least the "right" track was visible from where we were going. Now, the "right" track looks impossible to get to.
nfitz
Superstar
Is there any evidence the leftists would like to spend a lot on transit? In the last provincial election, the leftist campaign was devoid of much significant transit spending Weren't both the right and the centre promising more?
WislaHD
Superstar
Arguably the 'left' swung to the populist side of politics in the last provincial election, not necessarily disproving Rainforest's thesis.
However, I am not convinced by the argument either. Conservatives, most notably Bill Davis' provincial progressive conservatives, have also been involved with significant transit expansion and transit-based social engineering. Conservatives in Europe are certainly no enemies of bike lanes and competing alternative transportation choices either.
I think the real source of division is how you perceive your role in society and this transcends political ideologies. Do you consider yourself a citizen of a community and city? Or are you just a taxpayer and nothing more? It just so happens that certain populist ideologues (like the Fords) gear their message to appeal to one group or the other.
There really is no ideological reason to chose one type of transit over the other, mainly because transit choices are not inherent political creatures. They are made political by willing populists, hence why conservatives here hate bike lanes while conservatives in Europe promote building bike lanes as with everyone else in the political spectrum there.
However, I am not convinced by the argument either. Conservatives, most notably Bill Davis' provincial progressive conservatives, have also been involved with significant transit expansion and transit-based social engineering. Conservatives in Europe are certainly no enemies of bike lanes and competing alternative transportation choices either.
I think the real source of division is how you perceive your role in society and this transcends political ideologies. Do you consider yourself a citizen of a community and city? Or are you just a taxpayer and nothing more? It just so happens that certain populist ideologues (like the Fords) gear their message to appeal to one group or the other.
There really is no ideological reason to chose one type of transit over the other, mainly because transit choices are not inherent political creatures. They are made political by willing populists, hence why conservatives here hate bike lanes while conservatives in Europe promote building bike lanes as with everyone else in the political spectrum there.
nfitz
Superstar
Do Bill Davis progressive conservatives even vote for the Conservatives these days? Joe Clark endorsed the Liberals in one election.
Johnny Au
Senior Member
With regards to transit, the debate is more along the lines of collectivism vs. individualism.
LRTs serve more people and is cost effective, but subways have immediate gratification for those in power as well as it being a vote grab.
Urban planning experts focus on cost-effectiveness and maximizing reach to potential commuters, while politicians focus on winning votes.
There is a good reason as to why politicians are much better remembered than urban planning experts. Not everyone is an urban geography major.
LRTs serve more people and is cost effective, but subways have immediate gratification for those in power as well as it being a vote grab.
Urban planning experts focus on cost-effectiveness and maximizing reach to potential commuters, while politicians focus on winning votes.
There is a good reason as to why politicians are much better remembered than urban planning experts. Not everyone is an urban geography major.
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44 North
Senior Member
Yeah, I guess. But I feel like one of the points of Metrolinx was to see past the politicizing/squabbling and support what was most sensible – for both the near and long term. By being against one of the few subway proposals that makes sense, they appear just as politically-motivated and biased as the Metro governments of the 70s, 80s, 90s, and 00s.