This also kind of relates into high speed rail plan discussion, because Network Southwest talks of the separation of provincial versus federal responsibilities, as theoretically the Network Southwest idea is an interim step before high speed rail. So, on that note:
Since Ontario has their hands in both GO and the HSR study, I now realistically see Metrolinx easily beating VIA to operating high speed rail service. Ontario has already funded an environmental assessment (now in progress) for high speed rail service from Toronto to Windsor. With the momentum that this particular corridor is getting (Georgetown Project and high-priority electricification; ala UPX, GO RER, SmartTrack) the stars are currently aligned for Ontario to beat Federal to high speed rail. Ontario wants to do it within 10 years, but more conservatively I think it's a 20 year goal, given precedent.
Unlike the past where I have felt high speed was unobtainium for Canada, the momentum at Metrolinx is many, many, many times stronger than at VIA, and it now seems realistic we'll have at least high speed Kitchener-Pearson-Toronto 300kph high speed trains by the end of 2030s, after a series of incremental projects (e.g. electricification, extra tracks, then 200kph+ GO RER trainsets, then new Guelph bypass corridor, then 300kph true high speed trainsets), in a series of "go faster" (pun intended) incremental upgrades.
It will be interesting to see how high speed federal-funded intercity (Toronto-Kitchener-Ottawa-Montreal) reconciles with high speed provincially-funded intercity (e.g. Windsor-London-Kitchener-Toronto). I think a restructuring of provincial/federal responsibilities will be required at some point, to follow more of a European model. In Europe, there are Eurostar and TGV sharing the same high speed corridors. TGV is the regional (within France) trains, and Eurostar is the interregional (international) European high speed trains.
Failing this, a future favorable Quebec government (sweetened by local manufacturing, e.g. high speed train manufacture) may theoretically team up with Ontario instead, bypassing federal, as anything could happen within a decade of Quebecois envy of Ontario's newly constructed rail. Then feds wake up with this threat, and sweeten the deal by teaming up with Ontario/Quebec governments for funding a VIA-derived high speed initiative (but using a Ontario+Quebec+Federal funding mix). Which may mean (at least initially) a high speed train transfer may be required at Union to go from Windsor to Quebec City, as a political happenstance of different funding mechanisms. From a conservative/growth point of view, it starts becoming tempting: This could easily turn Kingston into somewhat of a boomtown if Toronto and Ottawa is a morning commute away, as there's plenty of development opportunities between Oshawa and Ottawa over the next 100 years, so federal would have a clear interest in that. From a more liberal/social point of view, it's a better place to subsidize than expanding the 401, considering just one single high-speed trainset carries roughly as many people as a peak hour's worth of cars in a single lane of heavy 401 traffic (and a few hours worth of cars in rural 401 traffic), considering the now-noticeably-expanding transit systems in all cities involved. The transit systems in all the cities involved are expanding and receiving new connector systems (Ottawa LRT U/C, Kitchener-Waterloo LRT U/C and talk of Kingston LRT funding request in 2015-2016), increasing the business case of HSR. A HSR route also provides infrastructure for high performance allstop intercity trains (e.g. 200-240kph to smaller cities/larger towns such as Brockville/Belleville) so everybody can also get something out of it, as the whole corridor has potential for major densification with Toronto expected to stay costly and unaffordable even through future market corrections (just like other world cities such as London/Tokyo/HongKong/NewYork) to lots of people. Eventually, stars align and high speed becomes a no-brainer for 2030s Conservatives. By then, we end up getting a mix of federial HSR and provincial HSR.
It now all depends on who's sitting at the best desk at Queen's Park, and who's at 24 Sussex in Ottawa, over the next couple decades, but if we get a few cycles of favourable governments in sync with each other, high speed will happen sooner (15-20 years, if next government is the Liberal majority and the next Ontario government stay Liberal) than later (30 years, if Conservative majority) but even some centrist conservatives are warming up to high speed. Observe Toronto mayor Tory, a shrewd centrist but have mainly run under conservative banners in the past, is quite pro-rail (see: SmartTrack and electricification of Georgetown corridor; quite compatible with getting the corridor ready for HSR, and have given warm reception to provincial high speed talk). Ironically, our celebrated first prime minister, Sir John A Macdonald, a Conservative, was quite pro-rail, and British Columbia agreed to be part of Canada only because we promised them a rail link. European conservatives are a different breed -- the currently elected UK conservatives are big-time on high speed rail, for example.
Right now, from a "Will High Speed Rail Happen In Canada Within My Lifetime?", I finally feel it is no longer a matter of "if" anymore, but "when"....
