News   Mar 28, 2024
 941     2 
News   Mar 28, 2024
 537     2 
News   Mar 28, 2024
 832     0 

2014 mayoral election prediction

King of Kensington

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Oct 5, 2007
Messages
2,818
Reaction score
596
Maybe I'm being premature, but here it goes:

Tory 41%
Chow 28%
Ford 26%

Tory's best ward will probably be ward 25 (Don Valley West) or ward 16 (eastern Eglinton-Lawrence) Chow will do best in the Trinity-Spadina wards but will win a lot of the core NDP strongholds, and Ford I'm going to guess ward 2 but it could be something "random" like York West or something in Scarborough.

I think Chow is very likely to come in second place because she'll have a superior GOTV effort. Really hope she does!
 
I sometimes like to gamble so I would wager that Ford gets under 20% and Tory quite close to 50% (+/- 2%).
 
See here: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/municipal.html

As of this post:

Toronto.png
 
In a normal world, I'd say that Doug will get a bit lower than his polling average and Chow a bit higher because of the quality of their respective Get Out the Vote teams. That said, I think there's something we have to consider, which is the "wild card" effect of the Fords weird sway over large segments of the population who may or may not come out in force to support him. I can't really predict at this point. Feels like I'd jinx it.
 
All of these guesses are pretty good -- I think Ford will actually be less than 20% -- 19% at a guess. Without his brother's support from the 'he's a regular guy' vote, Doug will collapse.

It'll be sad to see the first 'but he wasn't elected by a majority' whinge about Tory when he comes in at 47-9%. Sadder still that'll probably come from Chow supporters rather than Ford supporters.

Tory 48%
Chow 25%
Ford 19%
Other 8% / Spoiled (what? Where's Rob? Karen? Soks? Thompson? sigh.)
 
Maybe I'm being premature, but here it goes:

Tory 41%
Chow 28%
Ford 26%

Tory's best ward will probably be ward 25 (Don Valley West) or ward 16 (eastern Eglinton-Lawrence) Chow will do best in the Trinity-Spadina wards but will win a lot of the core NDP strongholds, and Ford I'm going to guess ward 2 but it could be something "random" like York West or something in Scarborough.

I think Chow is very likely to come in second place because she'll have a superior GOTV effort. Really hope she does!

Tory - 46%
Chow - 28%
Ford - 20%

Tory 41%
Chow 29%
Ford 28%
Other 2%

Tory: 45%
Chow: 28%
Ford: 24%
Other: 3%

All of these guesses are pretty good -- I think Ford will actually be less than 20% -- 19% at a guess. Without his brother's support from the 'he's a regular guy' vote, Doug will collapse.

It'll be sad to see the first 'but he wasn't elected by a majority' whinge about Tory when he comes in at 47-9%. Sadder still that'll probably come from Chow supporters rather than Ford supporters.

Tory 48%
Chow 25%
Ford 19%
Other 8% / Spoiled (what? Where's Rob? Karen? Soks? Thompson? sigh.)

Very interested as to why you guys think Olivia will finish second. All the polls have had her in third since Labour Day.
 
I really think people are underestimating the Ford vote out of some sense of wishful thinking. He's polling higher than many predict he will pull in. But even if support collapses, I fail to see how this support goes to Chow, who many think will perform much higher than polls are predicting. I think Chow and Ford will be much closer than most would predict. And I also think Tory won't have quite the landslide many are predicting. And that's too bad. Giving him a strong mandate coming out of the Ford era would have really helped him....
 
Very interested as to why you guys think Olivia will finish second. All the polls have had her in third since Labour Day.

I said why I think this right in my quote -- I think this Ford's poll numbers are as big a chimera as the Scottish referendum numbers. If you ask a bunch of 18yo Glaswegians a question, they'll answer in whatever way they think is entertaining -- try to piss you off, mess with your mind, whatever. I'm betting Doug's poll support includes 10% mind-like-a-12-year-old sniggering fools who think it's 'funny' to vote Ford in a telephone poll.

I also think the number of 'folks' who will genuinely think they can vote for Rob and be irate at the election officials will be off the charts. That's how 'low information' I think those voters really are.
 
Lots of people saying Ford voters are young and that his vote will collapse. I'm sceptical too.

I don't think I said Ford's support would "collapse" but I think he'll be under 30% for the reasons expressed by myself and others here. Note that his numbers have trended downward. I also think Olivia Chow will be closer to 30% than 20%. She'll have a superior GOTV effort and if a Tory victory starts looking inevitable some of these center-left voters will come back. I don't think there's going to be a big spread between second and third.
 
Yeah, putting Chow in second place is kind of wishful thinking on my part. Also hope that many of the people who are "strategically" voting for Tory but want to vote for Chow will actually end up voting chow, because they feel that Tory has enough of a lead. I would *love* it it Ford was knocked back to third place.

I also think that Chow will have a small surge at the end, both with "strategic" voters changing their minds and a strong get-out-the-vote effort from Chow.

Or I could be totally wrong. I'm just some dude on teh Internets.
 

Back
Top