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TTC Capital Budget 2014-23 Fleet Plans

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TTC Capital Budget 2014-23 Part I: Fleet Plans

Read More: http://stevemunro.ca/?p=9014

Spreadsheet PDF: http://stevemunro.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FleetPlans201312.pdf

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The Subway

On the Yonge-University-Spadina subway, headways cannot be substantially reduced until the new signal system with automatic train control (ATC) is in place, a project that will not complete until mid 2018. Meanwhile, there are a few improvements in the pipeline:

• Extension of the AM peak short turn from St. Clair West to Glencairn in 2015 (this has been on the books for some time and is repeatedly pushed back due to budget pressures);

• Five trains (about a 10% increase) added in 2016 to handle growing ridership in addition to trains for the opening of the Vaughan extension. More trains will be added post-2018 but this depends on the new signal system.

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On the Bloor-Danforth subway, the TTC has discovered something I wrote about here a few years ago: their plans to add trains are constrained by the limits of existing track geometry and signalling. One additional peak train is planned for each of 2014 and 2015, and that’s it until 2023 when there will be a subway extension, a new signal system and a new fleet capable of operating with ATC. A lot of the work needed to get us to 2023 is not funded, and decisions are needed fairly soon to hit that target.

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There is no planned service increase on the Sheppard line.

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The Bus Fleet

Planning for the bus fleet is a bit jumbled right now. When the TTC drew up its budget, the plan was to move from an 18-year life cycle to 15 years in keeping with current industry practice. This would avoid the need for a second overhaul allowing buses to reach 18, offset by the cost of a shorter procurement cycle for replacement vehicles. The City’s budget folks did not agree, and so the budget has a number of modifications to the details to undo the 18-to-15 year change.

The fleet plan, by contrast, does not appear to reflect a reduction in lifetime for diesel buses, but does show the effect of the early retirement of the hybrid fleet.

Bus fleet planning has been subject to two major upheavals in recent years.

Several of the Transit City lines were deferred or scrapped both by Mayor Ford’s hatred of streetcars and Queen’s Park’s desire to cut spending. Bus fleet plans had presumed that many major routes would convert to LRT during the rollout starting in 2013, but we won’t see any new lines until 2020 unless Metrolinx brings the Sheppard line forward for an earlier completion. All of the buses that would be replaced by the LRTs are required in the interim along with garage space to hold them.

The Ford/Stintz inspired downsizing of transit capacity with greater packing for peak loading standards not only reduced the total fleet needed for service, it avoided a year’s worth of new buses, and put back the date for the new McNicoll Garage. Those changes cannot be undone on a moment’s notice because there is a lead time for new buses, and the garage itself won’t be ready now until around 2019.

There will be a drop in total bus requirements in 2016 after the Spadina extension opens creating a lull in fleet growth (net of retirements) between 2015 and 2018. Only a small amount of growth is projected out to 2020 when the Eglinton line opens and there will be a big drop in planned bus requirements. Retirements in 2021 greatly exceed new purchases, and this continues on a smaller scale in 2022. (It is likely that when this plan was created, a Scarborough LRT was still on the books for opening in the same timeframe as the Eglinton line.

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The Streetcar Fleet

The long-awaited fleet of low floor streetcars will not make its debut in service until fall 2014. Delivery of production cars was supposed to start in December with two more cars, but there is no word on whether they will actually arrive. The streetcar fleet plan presumed that by year end there would be nine cars in Toronto with a further 34 to come in 2014. This is quite clearly optimistic, and so the implementation plan is already out of date.

Routes originally planned for the new cars were 510 Spadina, 509 Harbourfront and 511 Bathurst, as well as the first stage of conversion for 505 Dundas. Even the first three routes require about 35 cars, including spares, and we will be lucky to see that many in Toronto by the end of 2014.

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On the Bloor-Danforth subway, the TTC has discovered something I wrote about here a few years ago: their plans to add trains are constrained by the limits of existing track geometry and signalling. One additional peak train is planned for each of 2014 and 2015, and that’s it until 2023 when there will be a subway extension, a new signal system and a new fleet capable of operating with ATC.

Is Munro talking about the few extra trainsets that will be required for the Scarborough Subway extension, or does the TTC want to replace the entire Bloor-Danforth fleet with new trainsets? His post seems to indicate that the TTC wants to replace the entire Bloor-Danforth fleet since you can't run ATC if there are trains on the line that don't ATC onboard. But I don't recall the TTC ever mentioning retiring the T1's so soon.

If the TTC does retire the T1 in 2023 that would make them the shortest lived subway fleet in TTC history, with only 28 years in service.

The long-awaited fleet of low floor streetcars will not make its debut in service until fall 2014. Delivery of production cars was supposed to start in December with two more cars, but there is no word on whether they will actually arrive. The streetcar fleet plan presumed that by year end there would be nine cars in Toronto with a further 34 to come in 2014. This is quite clearly optimistic, and so the implementation plan is already out of date.

Routes originally planned for the new cars were 510 Spadina, 509 Harbourfront and 511 Bathurst, as well as the first stage of conversion for 505 Dundas. Even the first three routes require about 35 cars, including spares, and we will be lucky to see that many in Toronto by the end of 2014.

I don't understand why the TTC hasn’t prioritized Queen and King for since our ALRVs are in such dire condition. If the TTC does retire 42 ALRVs in 2014, I’m not at all confident that the CLRVs can pick up the slack.
 
On the other hand, Glencairn is exposed to the cold so it won't be much fun being short turned there compared to St. Clair West.
 
I don't understand why the TTC hasn’t prioritized Queen and King for since our ALRVs are in such dire condition. If the TTC does retire 42 ALRVs in 2014, I’m not at all confident that the CLRVs can pick up the slack.

Queen is far down the list because there is still a lot of work to be done along the route before it is capable of handling the new cars.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 
I'm sure its possible, but there'd be no point in doing that. In 2023 the T1s will have about 10 years of life left in them. Might as well spend the money on new trains
 

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