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Will Rob Ford Finish His Term? If Not, What Then?

allabootmatt

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The current debate on what's arguably Rob Ford's signature initiative, his transit plan, in the context of his recent budget defeat makes me wonder about the scenarios for his mayoralty going forward.

If he hasn't already, Ford will soon effectively lose the confidence of Council, in that he will be unable to implement even proposals he considers core to his mandate.

Council is not a parliamentary system, and this reality doesn't result in anything automatic or concrete. But it is unprecedented is post-amalgamation Toronto, and I'm not sure when, if ever, such a situation existed in the pre-1998 municipalities.

I don't think it's at all unrealistic that if the present course continues the Mayor will come under immense pressure to resign, and not just from his nemeses on the left.

Aside from the true believers like Doug Holyday and Sue-Ann Levy, the right--to say nothing of the centre--has to be watching the proceedings very nervously right now. A Ford flameout any more spectacular than what we are already experiencing could discredit small and large-c conservative municipal governance for a long time.

At what point will the centrist and centre-right power brokers who still hold considerable sway in the city decide they've seen enough? At what point will Ford's 'good buddy' Jim Flaherty and others like him quietly suggest the mayor step aside?

I know the Fords see themselves as insurgents with an independent power base, the mythical 'Ford Nation.' Leaving aside the question of whether that base ever existed, I'm just not convinced by the narrative that holds that the Fords owe nothing to any political machine.

Of course, Rob is nothing if not stubborn. Yet even he will surely buckle if enough pressure is applied by people he trusts.

I confess to not actually knowing what happens when a Toronto mayor resigns; does the deputy mayor take over? Is there a new election? Obviously whatever the next step is will inform consideration of the options.

On the whole, this seems to be a discussion worth having.
 
It's reasonable to assume that he's going to have increasing difficulty with implementing his agenda. That said, he'll still be able to get some less controversial issues through and he hasn't faced any truly serious scandals (at least more serious than the variety that popped up during the campaign and didn't dent his popularity). There's absolutely no question that he will serve out the rest of his term. Look at the striking parallels with Larry O'Brien in Ottawa: he had a much worse start and eventually muddled through to the end of his term when he was crushed in his re-election attempt. Barring criminal charges (and even then I'm not so sure), Rob Ford will be mayor until 2014.
 
It's reasonable to assume that he's going to have increasing difficulty with implementing his agenda. That said, he'll still be able to get some less controversial issues through and he hasn't faced any truly serious scandals (at least more serious than the variety that popped up during the campaign and didn't dent his popularity). There's absolutely no question that he will serve out the rest of his term. Look at the striking parallels with Larry O'Brien in Ottawa: he had a much worse start and eventually muddled through to the end of his term when he was crushed in his re-election attempt. Barring criminal charges (and even then I'm not so sure), Rob Ford will be mayor until 2014.

Just to calrify: you're referring to *new* criminal charges, right? 'Cuz the big man hasn't exactly been a stranger to criminal charges in the past.
 
It's reasonable to assume that he's going to have increasing difficulty with implementing his agenda. That said, he'll still be able to get some less controversial issues through and he hasn't faced any truly serious scandals (at least more serious than the variety that popped up during the campaign and didn't dent his popularity). There's absolutely no question that he will serve out the rest of his term. Look at the striking parallels with Larry O'Brien in Ottawa: he had a much worse start and eventually muddled through to the end of his term when he was crushed in his re-election attempt. Barring criminal charges (and even then I'm not so sure), Rob Ford will be mayor until 2014.

Absolutely, and he may even squeak through into a second term depending on who runs against him. There's not a lot of mayoralty-potential on council for a 2014 election. Perks, Vaughan, Carroll would all likely lose and it's likely too early for a Colle or Matlow.
 
Absolutely, and he may even squeak through into a second term depending on who runs against him. There's not a lot of mayoralty-potential on council for a 2014 election. Perks, Vaughan, Carroll would all likely lose and it's likely too early for a Colle or Matlow.

I don't think council is where the next mayor will come from. A weak field with a weak incumbent is the perfect point for a high profile non-councilor to jump into the race.

There are a lot of provincial and federal pols who could take a run at it and win handily. What is Gerard Kennedy up to these days? Sarah Thompson could have another go at it too. Also there could be some provincial Liberals available if they lose badly in an election before then.

Of course there are also a lot of business folk who could challenge Ford or even media personalities. If you have deep pockets, a mayoral run is an easy way to get noticed and get your feet wet in politics.

I could even see Miller running again, if he isn't tied up in some other job.

For a dark horse, what about Michael Bryant? No one can call him a bike riding commie-pinko.
 
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Or who knows whether there'll be a challenger "from within", so to speak, i.e. a Karen Stintz or Michael Thompson--and certainly, any of those characters might wind up being "incumbent" by default in the event that Ford doesn't finish his term...
 
During the election we laughed, didn't see how a significant percentage of the population could vote for this disruptive, extremist councillor who had accomplished little during his ten years on council. When he won with a decisive victory we said he had no friends on council, he's only one vote and wouldn't have the ability to force his policy direction. When he manipulated the power he had to award positions to council to ensure that he the support to cancel Transit City, privatize Garbage workers, eliminate the Vehicle Tax, take away bike lanes we said that couldn't last, that the support would fall away, that he would be undermined by some scandal, or by members of council waking to the realization that they were destroying the city. But he was getting his way, got his way for more than a year. He achieved cuts to the budget, to services, jobs with the city are being eliminated, with the support of the majority of council. He received a little push back on a couple initiatives, lost in squeakers by a vote. He still has a forceful nucleus of councilors who have sympathy with his direction, councilors with power on committees. He's not going to be pushed from the mayor's job because there is some opposition to his direction. He has impacted the city to a degree most of us on here said couldn't be done, and he will still be able to find support for moderate changes in the direction of 'efficiency'. The labour disruptions upcoming will impact the amount of faith members of council and voters have for him. Maybe people will realize that the are being led by a foolish ideologue in a direction harmful to the city or maybe they will be thankful that someone was finally willing to be the hardass taking on the entrenched interests. There's a lot more support for the latter talk-radio outlook than is evident on this forum or on Queen St. He's achieved a lot more power and impact than those of us who don't like him would ever believe was possible, and this will continue to happen. He's not going to be pushed out of City Hall before the end of his term, and he's still a better shot at being elected for Mayor in the next term than any of the potential challengers, no matter how disappointing and incomprehensible it is to us that a supposedly progressive city like Toronto can make an idiot who is unappealing in every possible way (sloppy, overweight, ugly, inarticulate, mean-spirited) its mayor.
 
During the election we laughed, didn't see how a significant percentage of the population could vote for this disruptive, extremist councillor who had accomplished little during his ten years on council. When he won with a decisive victory we said he had no friends on council, he's only one vote and wouldn't have the ability to force his policy direction. When he manipulated the power he had to award positions to council to ensure that he the support to cancel Transit City, privatize Garbage workers, eliminate the Vehicle Tax, take away bike lanes we said that couldn't last, that the support would fall away, that he would be undermined by some scandal, or by members of council waking to the realization that they were destroying the city. But he was getting his way, got his way for more than a year. He achieved cuts to the budget, to services, jobs with the city are being eliminated, with the support of the majority of council. He received a little push back on a couple initiatives, lost in squeakers by a vote. He still has a forceful nucleus of councilors who have sympathy with his direction, councilors with power on committees. He's not going to be pushed from the mayor's job because there is some opposition to his direction. He has impacted the city to a degree most of us on here said couldn't be done, and he will still be able to find support for moderate changes in the direction of 'efficiency'. The labour disruptions upcoming will impact the amount of faith members of council and voters have for him. Maybe people will realize that the are being led by a foolish ideologue in a direction harmful to the city or maybe they will be thankful that someone was finally willing to be the hardass taking on the entrenched interests.

I didn't see Ford's victory as possible, but not because I thought he was a joke, because I didn't think Smitherman would run such a poor campaign. He had the ability to defeat him and really botched it.

As for Ford delivering over the past year? Property taxes are going up. Service cuts he drafted were not implemented. These are core goals of his mayoralty being violated. He has not gotten what he wanted at all and I disagree that he received only little "push back". There was a series of very public incidents in rapid succession over several months last year where Ford was shot down and he came back with little or no response. He lost a credibility and power over councillors in that period and it is causing his coalition to crumble. Doug Ford was openly musing about quitting a while last fall and that's where the idea came from that Ford may not serve out his term. Rob and Doug acted defeated. Of course there are die hard Ford loyalists left on council, but they are just the same strip-club lunch friends from Etobicoke he had before. What is falling apart is his coalition of centrist North Toronto and inner Scarborough councillors.

There's a lot more support for the latter talk-radio outlook than is evident on this forum or on Queen St. He's achieved a lot more power and impact than those of us who don't like him would ever believe was possible, and this will continue to happen. He's not going to be pushed out of City Hall before the end of his term, and he's still a better shot at being elected for Mayor in the next term than any of the potential challengers, no matter how disappointing and incomprehensible it is to us that a supposedly progressive city like Toronto can make an idiot who is unappealing in every possible way (sloppy, overweight, ugly, inarticulate, mean-spirited) its mayor.

Ford's impact has actually been far less than I expected. For having such a consolidated amount of power and a terrified council one year ago, I expected much more. Instead he just went limp and has seemed to cave on everything. Am I out to lunch here for thinking that? It seems to be the opinion of most of the people I know.

I think Ford could even be challenged by another right of centre populist at this point who could claim he will get the things done Rob Ford can't.
 
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Of course, Rob is nothing if not stubborn. Yet even he will surely buckle if enough pressure is applied by people he trusts.

Ford's willingness to humiliate himself is as limitless as his disrespect for the office he holds. Don't count on him stepping down out of disgrace or because it's the "right thing to do".


I think Ford could even be challenged by another right of centre populist at this point who could claim he will get the things done Rob Ford can't.

Hopefully, we will have snapped out of our little haze that let us elect on such populist-conservative grounds in the first place, by the time another election rolls around. My worse nightmare is John Tory deciding to finally run. He's actually considered a "reasonable" conservative, and he's really not.

Hopefully we will come to our senses, and realize Toronto always does best overall when we are run from a left of centre perspective.
 
There are a lot of good points in the OP, but it misses the central point which is that quitting is just not in this guy's DNA. I think he gets too big of a charge from being in such a powerful position and won't give it up willingly. And there's no central force in council strong enough to push him out. There are a lot of juiced in lackeys on this council who would see their power completely diminished if Tweedle was given the bump. Thanks partly to Miller, the weight of the combined Mayor plus EC plus a couple of juiced in water carriers (Ford 2, Nunziata) are a very strong core in council and tough to disperse. Unfortunately I see Tweedle limping his way to the end of the term in similar fashion as Mel during his second term.
 
I'd be surprised if he ran -- my impression is that with all his high-profile electoral losses, he's damaged goods politically.

You're right...without daddy around to hand him things, he's never been actually very good at getting anything on his own. He has a damaged ego, and a sense of entitlement. I liken him to Belinda Stronach...if he can't have the big job...he's going home. I think he would either be scared to lose at yet another election...or mayor is simply a job beneath him.

But I don't think he's damaged goods with conservative/right-of-centre voters in Toronto. And I think a good chunk of the "mushy middle" would consider voting for him. All depends who he was running against.

Question is...will he get tired of pretending to be a politician on that Fox News style talk radio show...or will he want to try again to actually be one?
 

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