Supertall and near-Supertall Rumour/Speculation Thread

[balenciaga]

The Chinese ghost cities meme is overplayed. They're almost all located in the far western parts of the country. And they're usually not so much 'cities' as massive suburbs.

Comparing Toronto to a city like Shanghai is a little pointless. There are roughly 300m people in China who are expected to move to cities like Shanghai. And of the hundreds of millions of people currently living in cities, more than a third live in units lacking things like a kitchen or plumbing; as incomes rise those people will demand bigger units with mod-cons, putting still more pressure.

This WSJ article neatly summarizes the challenge:

I know China's authoritarianism and corruption result in the occasional suburb being built which ends up empty, but a handful of empty subdivisions hardly undermines the sheer amount of construction that will be needed.

There really isn't any comparison between the Shanghais and us. We face totally different circumstances.

I agree with you. What happens in a handful of small western cities does not in any way represent large coastal cities.
During the 2002-2012 period, the population of Shanghai increased by about 6 million (create the entire GTA in 10 years), and is expected to increase by another 5M in the next decade. in 1982, Shanghai had about 12M, now 30 years later, it has about twice as that.

In 2012, GDP per capital is almost $13,000 (nominal, over $20k in PPP) in Shanghai, from about $5,000 in 2002. What's the first thing when people get richer? They ask for better housing.

With this kind of growth in both population and wealth,extremely high demand is not surprising.

You are right, there isn't really any comparison between Shanghai and us. Totally different circumstances. We are a much smaller city with much slower growth.

[Automation Gallery]

Gee, it takes 3 years to build a 40 storey bldg hrere in Toronto..............is it even possible to build (start to finish) a 100 storey/410 meter supertall in one year

Another Day Another Chinese Supertall
The scheme is known as a "speed project", an increasing trend amongst Chinese developers to be more dynamic to the appearance of new demand by constructing tall buildings in short periods of time. This particular development is expected to take only a year from start to finish.
This may sound incredible but even the Empire State Building was only constructed in sixteen months. It does however show the relentless march that the People's Republic is presently engaging in, enough to rival even the most optimistic of the Roaring Twenties.
http://www.skyscrapernews.com/news.php?ref=3243

[ChesterCopperpot]

It'll go the same way as the Sky City project

[Lenser]

What happened to Sky City, anyway? Wasn't it supposed to be building by now? Has it been delayed or is it completely dead in the water? I find only conflicting reports on the net. I'd love to see it built, if only as a statement of can-do engineering. It certainly wasn't a looker.

[Ramako]

What happened to Sky City, anyway? Wasn't it supposed to be building by now? Has it been delayed or is it completely dead in the water? I find only conflicting reports on the net. I'd love to see it built, if only as a statement of can-do engineering. It certainly wasn't a looker.

I liked how it kind of looks like what people in the 1920s thought skyscrapers in the future would look like.

[someMidTowner]

I liked how it kind of looks like what people in the 1920s thought skyscrapers in the future would look like.

It has a very Fritz Lang kind of vibe doesnt it?


Source


Source

[Lenser]

And Bladerunner was also referencing Fritz, it would seem. Plenty of linear verticality and monolithic buildings resembling sheer cliff faces of urbanity.

I don't absolutely loathe the proposed Sky City... it's just very boxy and it does reference our earliest concept of skyscrapers.

[agoraflaneur]

For your information, condos in central Shanghai are sold at about C$600 per square foot or more, just like downtown Toronto. Do you really think half of those buildings are empty? Plus, almost all condo buildings are planned and constructed by private sector developers, just like in Toronto, not by the "communist regime". High supply only suggests high demand from a 23M mega city.

I suggest you take an economics - not to mention a history - course. Just because something is highly priced does not mean it is actually demanded in the real world. The Dutch tulips are always the base case for this. Everyone in China thinks they can get rich by speculating on condos in major cities, so the demand is indeed very great. A few of my friends have made quite a bit of money buying condos they don't rent out in Beijing - like over 100k each on a pretty equivalent investment, meaning that it doubled for them in a few years. That does not mean that people actually live there - you cannot make a profit renting out the apartments, but you don't need to if it just sits there appreciating. Builders build and make a profit from selling - they don't care what happens after, whether in Toronto or Shanghai (private stupidity is the same as communist stupidity). The only thing that keeps up the house of cards is that the government will paper over the losses of connected firms that buy empty space if things go very awry, as they did during the financial crisis - just as in the US the banks were bailed out. The rich get rich and the poor get ....

As to whether someone "thinks" some of the buildings are empty, look to the Chinese media, not the BBC. State run media speaks of the dangers of overspeculation all the time, noting its prevalence in major cities. Policies were changed to stop multiple ownership and limit borrowing. Studies have been done looking at how many lights are on in the commercial and residential buildings in cities at night over a length of time, and they show significant "ghost" building. But don't take my word for it, step off the major streets and into the huge developments that all look the same next time you are there. I certainly did. The bet is that the population growth will continue to such an extent that these will eventually be filled; that may be the case, but it sure seems odd to have buildings decay before people actually live in them (as indeed happened with the overbuilding in the US in Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix).

[fedplanner]

http://torontoed.com/files/plans_rep...pdate%2010.pdf
http://torontoed.com/files/plans_rep...ng_reduced.pdf

[innsertnamehere]

Nothing in that file we haven't already seen.

[fedplanner]

Nothing in that file we haven't already seen.

367 King St. West and 205 Richmond St. are listed as contemplated and I don't see threads on UT, so they may be new info, although unlikely to be supertalls so probably the wrong thread for this.

[innsertnamehere]

367 is the 15 story proposal that we know about. can't seem to find it's thread though..

205 Richmond is a project that is indeed unheard of, but given the fact that it is a historic building and that it is proposed by OCAD I wouldn't be surprised if it is simply converted to classrooms.

[ChesterCopperpot]

367/369 King Street Thread

http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/showthr...-15s-Teeple%29

205 Richmond Thread

http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/showthr...Kohn-Shnier%29

[skylyte]

This reminds me: has anyone heard anything about the plans for the "Green P" parking spot on Wellesley just east of Yonge, across from the subway station? There was a mock-up image online awhile back that showed its enormous potential. I wonder if it could someday be one of the tallest sites in the city due to its prime location?

[dougtoronto]

There's a plan for it somewhere out there. I think it was supposed to be twin towers (of course).