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2011 Federal Election Result Predictions

What do you think will be the result from the 2011 Federal Election?

  • Conservative Majority

    Votes: 19 31.7%
  • Conservative Minority

    Votes: 32 53.3%
  • Liberal Minority

    Votes: 6 10.0%
  • Liberal Majority

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • Other (Specify)

    Votes: 2 3.3%

  • Total voters
    60
(BASED ON NUMBER OF SEATS ALONE)

What say you?


I think the threat of a Harper majority will embolden the Bloc more than anyone else. And say goodbye to Iggy.

No guts, no glory: Cons don't pick up a 416 seat, Olivia Chow loses in a squeaker.

Conservatives - 143
Liberal - 74
Bloc - 57
NDP - 34
 
With the caveat that I am often wrong about this stuff, I would say something rather similar to the current count, maybe a slight boost for the Liberals. As Jeffrey Simpson has pointed out, the Tories seem to have an irreducible core of 30-35 percent support, but getting much beyond that is very difficult. Iggy also has low expectations on his side.
 
I agree, we'll end up with much the same, with maybe some movement towards the Conservatives in the face of the dismal Liberal and NDP leadership. The Liberals would be smart to find a new leader today if they want any chance of picking up seats.
 
Conservative majority all the way. Canadians are tired of elections and a house of commons that gets no work done. I think most people are ready to give Harper a 4 yr majority to see how well he does and to reveal his so-called 'secret agenda'. I see 2 benefits to giving Harper a majority: 1)Ignatieff will go and Liberals will elect a new leader and do some house-cleaning within the party. 2)Harpers agenda will be revealed and in 2015 the pendulum will hopefully swing back to centre-left once Canadians see the true right-wing policies and what they do to this country.
 
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Conservatives will get a majority - but barely. They'll likely end up with 155-156. The Liberals are going up in seats... likely 85-90 at the expense of the NDP. And Elizabeth May will get creamed in her riding in BC. Choosing a riding with a bunch of Alberta retirees? yikes! stupid stupid idea.
 
Latest round of polls are in, and they all seem to have the Conservatives around 40%, the Liberals around 25%, the NDP around 20%, Bloc around 10% , and the Greens around 5%. These numbers would give a majority Harper government.

The NDP-Liberal gap is narrower than it almost ever has been in the past. If polls start appearing with those two parties tied, it would really change the dynamic of the race.
 
Another minority. The anti-Harper vote is too entrenched. The Liberals being the TMV party, they'll do just enough to keep a majority out of reach for the CPC. I think the sleeper is Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals lose ground there, it might be the biggest gift the CPC ever got.
 
My sense is that the Conservatives are way too confident this early in the campaign and we'll see their poll numbers go down over the next few weeks. Canadians sure hate hubris.

Ignatieff, as much as I'm not generally a fan, has been far more composed and likeable in his recent appearances.

The CPC's biggest vulnerability right now is themselves -- if they go too far with the negative campaigning there could be a significant backlash against the party.

Still, I'd hold firm that we'll see a conservative minority with very few seats changing hands.
 
It certainly looks like a Conservative minority right now. But the campaign is just beginning. Too early to call.
 
No change, back with a Con minority. I do think Iggy will be gone by early 2011.

Probably why the Liberal party brass decided to defeat the Gov't... have an election and use the result as a reason to ditch the lame duck Ignatieff.

Kim Campbell will send Ignatieff a sympathy card.
 

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