All things considered, Rae is a better choice from what we have to choose from, especially after the, paraphrasing, a vote for NDP is a vote for the Conservatives crap; my vote for one is my choice and is not being tossed away if I don't vote Liberal. (Yes I am bitter when someone spouts crap like this.)
Strategically Rae would be an awful choice for the Liberal leadership. He's been forgiven (rightly, in my opinion) by the voters of Toronto Centre, but I doubt he could appeal to many in areas where this election will be decided (in the 905, amongst seniors, etc.). Frankly, both Rae and Ignatieff got much more buzz than they deserved during the last leadership battle.
I suspect Ignatieff is smart academically, but as the cliche goes, he doesn't connect. Even when I agree with his words I don't feel it. My main emotion at the moment is irritation at both Ignatieff and Layton for knocking us into an election that is almost guaranteed to bring us either a larger Conservative minority, or as seems more likely by the day, a Conservative majority. Smooth move, guys.
A minority government can only survive when it respects Parliament and works co-operatively with members of other parties to ensure stability. It is the duty of the Opposition to oppose the government when it fails to do this. It really comes down to a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" decision for the Opposition. If Ignatieff continued to allow Harper and Co. to rule as if they had a majority, he would look weak. If Layton supported Harper, he would alienate his base. This government deserved to be held in contempt of Parliament regardless of what the polls were saying. To fall back on the history of Parliament, placing the blame for this election solely on the Opposition would be like overlooking Joe Clark's role in provoking the 1980 election.
I see strong echoes of the Toronto mayoral election in this race: a conservative out in front who has a solid, motivated and cohesive base, even though he's not very likeable, facing an array of opponents that contains no true frontrunner and will result in low turnouts and splitting of left-leaning votes.
Do not confuse splitting the left-leaning vote with splitting the anti-Harper vote (or even the anti-Ford vote). Neither Ignatieff nor Smitherman are/were particularly left-leaning. Remember, Smitherman was campaigning to the right once he realized he could no longer take victory for granted. Who knows? Perhaps if he hadn't joined the race at all, the Millerite candidate (not necessarily Pantalone in this hypothetical scenario) might've had enough strength to beat Ford.
There are enough voters who vote out of conscience (on the left, right, and in the middle) that we cannot assume every supporter of party x would support candidate y if party x pulled out for strategic reasons. Remember that in many ridings (particularly in the 905), the Conservatives actually
lost votes after the right united (disaffected PCs turning to the Liberals?).
Soon we we will likely have conservative anti-urban governments in power at the municipal GTA level,the provincial level, and the federal level. Dark days for Toronto pinkos like me, but the pendulum always swings. Part of the problem is that the Great Recession has served to make the economy more or less the only issue, and the perception is that conservatives are better with money, even though scrutiny does not always bear that out as true (odd that Harper came to power with a surplus, turned it into a huge deficit, yet is almost universally acclaimed for his handling of the economy).
A Conservative victory (especially a majority) in Ottawa might very well prove advantageous to McGuinty come October, especially if he keeps up with this "who's going to stand up to the feds for you?" rhetoric.