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Thread: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

  1. #886

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    I agree with the previous comment about this thread having gone off topic. It's more or less delved into a discussion about cost of living, property value, and rent.

    However, in the discussion's heart remains the underlying question: Should we be building costly high order rapid transit that will remain half empty for +20 years until zoning changes and redevelopment projects increase ridership along the line?

    My two cents: No.


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    This is sort of related to this talked of Sheppard Subway expansion. I was on the GO website and was trying to get some information about the GO Agincourt Station makeover and grade seperation. GO website didn't have any information on this but directed me to visit the Sheppard East LRT site. The funding for this line is still going ahead-despite Ford's declaration and directing the already established funding to the Eglinton Crosstown LRT? Glad the grade seperation is still happening though (with or without LRT) it is still needed. I was just wondering if anyone had any idea where the funding for this important piece of infrastructure is coming from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 North View Post
    I agree with the previous comment about this thread having gone off topic. It's more or less delved into a discussion about cost of living, property value, and rent.

    However, in the discussion's heart remains the underlying question: Should we be building costly high order rapid transit that will remain half empty for +20 years until zoning changes and redevelopment projects increase ridership along the line?

    My two cents: No.
    I say if we've built the DRL and we've built Eglinton, why on earth wouldn't we finish Sheppard?

  4. #889

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coruscanti Cognoscente View Post
    I say if we've built the DRL and we've built Eglinton, why on earth wouldn't we finish Sheppard?
    Because it is not needed. Have you ever driven along Sheappard from Yonge to Dufferin (downsview station)? First there is a bridge from Bathurst pretty well all the way a couple of blocks just west of Yonge. This means there won;t ever be any development in the area of that bridge. So now you have just the area from Bathurst to Dufferin and all that is there are 8 story condo's and some retail and houses that will be gobbled up for more of 6-8 story condos. And you want a subway here? For what?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Palma View Post
    Because it is not needed. Have you ever driven along Sheappard from Yonge to Dufferin (downsview station)? First there is a bridge from Bathurst pretty well all the way a couple of blocks just west of Yonge. This means there won;t ever be any development in the area of that bridge. So now you have just the area from Bathurst to Dufferin and all that is there are 8 story condo's and some retail and houses that will be gobbled up for more of 6-8 story condos. And you want a subway here? For what?
    I disagree. If you've ever driven along Sheppard you notice a few things. First its an auxiliary route to the 401 for people looking to head East / West trying to skip congestion. Also development begins with low rise 5-10 story condo's. Look whats happened along Sheppard east thanks to the subway. Unbelievable growth.

    Sheppard has a real opportunity to turn into a major hub North of the 401. But alas, where is the money going to come from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Palma View Post
    Because it is not needed. Have you ever driven along Sheappard from Yonge to Dufferin (downsview station)? First there is a bridge from Bathurst pretty well all the way a couple of blocks just west of Yonge. This means there won;t ever be any development in the area of that bridge. So now you have just the area from Bathurst to Dufferin and all that is there are 8 story condo's and some retail and houses that will be gobbled up for more of 6-8 story condos. And you want a subway here? For what?
    Ideally, those 6-8 stories condos will entice small businesses to open along there. Or you can blame the city zoning policy for the land use. And if Sheppard needs to be lined with 30+ stories buildings to warrant grade-seperated transit, why aren't any other subway lines (with the exception of Yonge) have 30+ stories buildings along the route?

  7. #892

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coruscanti Cognoscente View Post
    I say if we've built the DRL and we've built Eglinton, why on earth wouldn't we finish Sheppard?
    I may agree with finishing Sheppard once those two are built. But by then, we may have perfected teleportation technology. Jk.

    But once Eglinton and DRL are completed, Sheppard may still get pushed to the backburner. What may be an important undertaking in a few decades is twinning Yonge with an express line. Or the dreaded extension to Richmond Hill (which I'm still opposed to even with a relief line in place).

  8. #893

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    What I'm thinking might happen to Sheppard is that Ford may very well succeed in getting the damned thing finished.

    The catch being that because it will be built and operated by private agencies, the line will require an extra fare to use. For this reason, its ridership will drop significantly. Even with a second fare, the private operators will receive taxpayer bailouts to close their losses. Over time the line will be taken over by the city/TTC at a significant cost to the public.

    And thus continues another failed legacy.
    Last edited by 44 North; 2011-Nov-03 at 23:07.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 North View Post
    What I'm thinking might happen to Sheppard is that Ford may very well succeed in getting the damned thing finished.

    The catch being that because it will be built and operated by private agencies, the line will require an extra fare to use. For this reason, its ridership will drop significantly. Even with a second fare, the private operators will receive taxpayer bailouts to close their losses. Over time the line will be taken over by the city/TTC at a significant cost to the public.

    And thus continues another failed legacy.
    Lets send another film crew to the Ford residence and scare him into staying home for the next three years.

  10. #895

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    If ford manages to extend it to Victoria park, I think Shepard will end up getting finished in the end as its so close to STC and it makes no sense to bridge that distance with LRT

  11. #896

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    no matter what we post here, what good are these posts if we can't get the message across to city hall and ttc? i mean, it's not like they actually read it or anything. personally, i still think extending the sheppard line is a waste of money and time. condos are slowly going up in the downtown area and the need for the downtown relief line is very crucial at this point. equally important, the eglinton crosstown is also a problem. imo, the best solution is to build the western portion of the line first and extend it to the airport, but these are just dreams, we all know it will never happen...so in the end, why bother discuss it?
    If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.

  12. #897
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    The original plan was to take the line to Victoria Park, but Mike Harris said you only have $1 billion to build this line. That money only got the line as far as it is today with a few million left over.

    I have videos going in both directions from Don Mills to Meadowvalle and it shows there is nothing there now or 20 years to support a subway.

    Tridel is going to build their first tower mid way to Victoria Park with a few more to follow. That about 5-10 year time frame. You have 8 Chichester Place being built east of Victoria. You have no less than 5 fail attends of building tall buildings up to Kennedy Rd.

    There is talk of a small building at Kennedy now.

    You have a couple of new towers going up at Yorkland, next to the 404.

    Other than that, there is nothing in the pipeline for development along Sheppard east of Tridel development now or in 5-10 years.

    Given the fact that it will take about 5/7 years for a development to be completed depending on the size, height as well selling once plans come forth for approval, no way a subway can be supported by the current ridership for the next 20+ years if at all.

    I still ask the question why is STC so important to build a subway to when the current express buses run 50% empty or more outside of peak time compare to the ridership on the 85's? If more riders are using 85's east of Kennedy than to STC, would you think it is wise to build a line where the ridership is in the first place?

    I prefer to see the DRL built from Don Mills Station as it would take about 20-30% of the ridership off the Yonge line in the first place, as well get people to the core faster if they are going there in the first place.

    I don't see any P3 company coming forth willing to build this thing unless they can get a good buck in return for doing it. Unless there is guarantee in the contract that the City of Toronto pickups all excess overhead due to poor ridership, the Sheppard riders will be paying 2-4 times the going rate of TTC fare to ride this line.

    I know and am very sure, most riders system wide would not be willing to pay this extra cost so a few people can ride this subway while having 3rd class service. Most would look at other ways to get where they want to go in the first place cheap. More riders you loose, higher your lost ratio is.

    If TTC is loosing $5-10 million yearly on the existing line, I expect to see it being triple for the whole line going to STC.

    If you ask the riders system wide if they are willing to pay a higher fare to cover this lost so a few rider can save 5 minutes, their answer would be ""NO""

    I expect to see the government in 2012 telling Ford where to go and to fast track the Sheppard LRT by cutting back on the underground section for the Eglinton Line, since there is no approve EA for that underground section at this time. Once the cost start rolling in for that EA, you can kiss any left over money going to the Sheppard Subway Line goodbye if the line stays underground as per Ford plan.

    Time to deal with economic 101. You cannot spend what you don't have in the first place and to do so you are putting yourself at risk of loosing everything. This expectation what people be earning when they leave school or by the age of 30 is off the wall.

    If you cannot afford something now, you need to save for it or come up with a plan where the cost can be spread over X years without doing harm for those rainy days unknown expenses that will show up from time to time.

    As I have said in the past Drive, ride transit, bike and walk Sheppard from end to end and you will get a real feel for what is there and what can be there over time.

    Most development on Sheppard to support a subway will not happen in your lifetime.
    Due Time restriction, visit my site https://www.flickr.com/photos/drum118/ to see updated photos of projects shot the last few weeks since I don't have the time to post them to various threads.
    See my videos on YouTube http://www.youtube.com/user/Transitdrum118/videos

  13. #898

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    Quote Originally Posted by drum118 View Post
    I still ask the question why is STC so important to build a subway to when the current express buses run 50% empty or more outside of peak time compare to the ridership on the 85's? If more riders are using 85's east of Kennedy than to STC, would you think it is wise to build a line where the ridership is in the first place?
    I remember riding the 85G back when it existed before the subway. Very little usage outside of peak. I'm not sure how much it was used during peak, I never really had a chance to see on a frequent basis.

    Quote Originally Posted by drum118 View Post
    I know and am very sure, most riders system wide would not be willing to pay this extra cost so a few people can ride this subway while having 3rd class service. Most would look at other ways to get where they want to go in the first place cheap. More riders you loose, higher your lost ratio is.

    If TTC is loosing $5-10 million yearly on the existing line, I expect to see it being triple for the whole line going to STC.

    If you ask the riders system wide if they are willing to pay a higher fare to cover this lost so a few rider can save 5 minutes, their answer would be ""NO""Most development on Sheppard to support a subway will not happen in your lifetime.
    Oh but they'll say Sheppard was promised and deserves a subway because it's not fair that "everyone else" in the city has a subway. Plus it's a Place to Grow! Why is everyone else in Toronto treating the people in North York and Scarborough with such disdain? It's substandard third class service! Why do you hate Scarborough?

    A full Sheppard line I could see losing a lot more than 3x $10 million a year. The TTC already says the new Spadina section will lose more than $14 million a year and that includes 50% higher forecast peak usage vs Sheppard and train turnbacks at Downsview.

    Could it push losing $50 million a year? It wouldn't surprise me if it lost that much every year for the rest of my life. That is worth a lot of bus service across the rest of the city. Explain why everyone else in the city should make that sacrifice for such a small number of people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paleo View Post
    Could it push losing $50 million a year? It wouldn't surprise me if it lost that much every year for the rest of my life. That is worth a lot of bus service across the rest of the city. Explain why everyone else in the city should make that sacrifice for such a small number of people.
    It's just classic downtown vs. inner city vs. outer city debate. Who exactly are the "everyone else in the city" ? Which city ? If all bus users on Steeles and Finch east of Don Mills are diverted to Sheppard, how will the usage of the subway go?
    I know people who choose to stay on the bus to Finch station just to have a chance of getting a seat on the subway, but that's because Finch is the current terminus of the line. Whether some like it or not, Finch won't likely be the terminus of Yonge subway forever. By then, will a TTC user at, example, Kennedy/Finch E. take the bus 10km to Finch? Or 2km down to Sheppard?

  15. #900

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    i think because we pretty much know the eventual route of the drl will be up don mills that it seems that sbeppard is already at the perfect terminus in the east. instead we should be connecting it to downsview and be using the extra money to start the drl AsAP. but I think the Drl needs to start at sheppard and don mills and get to somewhere close to union. the west part of the drl is nowhere as badly needed. im not saying the west part shouldnt be built but when it is built there is no reason to go past dundad west station. in summary, commit to a drl from S/D to Union. connect sheppard to downsview. build eglinton. btw i would build eglinton at grade to make sure i have enough money to extend it to the airport.

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