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Latest Federal polls

Jonny5

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Any musings out there on the latest federal government poll?

CON 33.1
LIB 29.9
NDP 13.5
GRN 10.9
BLQ 10.1
OTH 2.5

On coalitions:
Ignatieff led coalition: 41%
Harper majority: 39%

Anyone else think that the Conservative party wolves are primed to turn on Harper if the Liberals get any closer? He's been leader a long time now and I'm sure someone is itching to move up the ranks.

Are we seeing the emergence of a new third party? I know the NDP is always up and down and the Green support is weak, but the gap is steadily narrowing between them. It's only 2.5% now. Perhaps an "Orange-Green" coalition could happen someday?

I believe that Canada has passed into a new era where there will be no Federal majority governments. If this is true, I hope the feds figure out this coalition business, as it is far better for the country than the "game of chicken" style we are running now where every vote will bring down the government until some party caves at the last second and saves it.
 
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Green always polls at a way higher percentage than they actually get come election time. I wouldn't put a ton of weight behind them. Particularly as their support seems to be very spread out, which means their votes don't tend to translate into actual seats.

I agree with your 2nd point, though. I don't think Harper will ever get his majority, and I think it's likely we will see some sort of Liberal/NDP coalition government hold power within the next decade.
 
I think a lot of the Green support would end voting Liberal or NDP in election, so the gap between Conservatives and Liberals may be even smaller than suggested.
 
A Green-NDP party would be great, and I think fits in really well with the way both parties hold their values. Such a coalition would definitely be able to lead Canada well.
 
Sounds great, but the exectution would be near-impossible. The democratic socialist ideals of the NDP somewhat clash with the Green's entrepreneurial stewardship approach. If it could be done though, I'd welcome it.
 
This poll is nothing but a prime example of why we need to move beyond our first-past-the-post system. Some excellent points have already been brought up regarding Green support, it's a pity that a party with that much support isn't in Parliament.

As well, I'm assuming the margin of error was +-3%? which means that the Lib/Conservative gap is negligible as well as the gap between the NDP, Greens and Bloc.
 
"As well, I'm assuming the margin of error was +-3%? which means that the Lib/Conservative gap is negligible as well as the gap between the NDP, Greens and Bloc."

The statistician in me is cringing. Just because they are within the margin of error does not mean they are 'statistically tied'. It's meaningless.
 
I didn't suggest they were tied. I said the differences are negligible. Big difference.
 
This poll is nothing but a prime example of why we need to move beyond our first-past-the-post system. Some excellent points have already been brought up regarding Green support, it's a pity that a party with that much support isn't in Parliament.

As well, I'm assuming the margin of error was +-3%? which means that the Lib/Conservative gap is negligible as well as the gap between the NDP, Greens and Bloc.

Sorry, I forgot to add a link to the data. The results are accurate to +-2.1%
 
This poll is nothing but a prime example of why we need to move beyond our first-past-the-post system.

But how do we change the system? How? I want it more than anyone I bet- though I would exclude quebec because I feel that the bloc deserves to dominate there - so how do we get most or all of canada onto such a system?




Green always polls at a way higher percentage than they actually get come election time.

I thought that greens usually were not on the polls. Their election performances have been jumping fast as of late though. I hope that continues, and that both they and NDP manage to knock the liberal party down.



I do wish that we can get a poll of districts. I mean, suppose the greens get two million votes... it's not worth it if they get only one seat in parliament for that many votes. The system sucks, as it favours the liberals and conservatives.




A Green-NDP party would be great, and I think fits in really well with the way both parties hold their values. Such a coalition would definitely be able to lead Canada well.

I had a friend who used to say "voting for them is like throwing away a vote." How do you intend to change the mindset of such people?




The democratic socialist ideals of the NDP somewhat clash with the Green's entrepreneurial stewardship approach.

Calling them socialist is just paranoia.


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I can not figure out if this helps or hurts ndp...
http://www.youtube.com/watch#!v=xlqQ7NrP514&feature=related
 
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The NDP is absolutely a socialist party and that's okay. (They're a member of Socialist International.) Canada has a ton of socialism in its history. It's nothing to be scared of.
 
The NDP is absolutely a socialist party and that's okay. (They're a member of Socialist International.) Canada has a ton of socialism in its history. It's nothing to be scared of.

Socialist international is bullshit. They stand for some aspects of socialism. A party in Bosnia is a hardcore free market capitalist party. And they are in socialist international. Just an example of how membership of this does not mean anything.

The fundamental aspect of socialism is no private property, and that the state controls everything. It is a very big mistake to label social democratic as socialist. Trust me. I know socialists. I was a socialist. The NDP is not socialist, nor does it stand for socialistic values. It is very much a market oriented parted.




A good example of how to deal with this is to take for example Sweden, a country that american hick folk, or albertan ranchers, might call all out communist. I mean come on, high taxes and whatnot ,right?
“Sweden has always been on the side of the market economy. This is not socialism,” says Olle Wästberg, director of the Swedish Institute in Stockholm
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2009/0514/sweden-hardly-a-socialist-nightmare


Only uniformed people of the far right truely think that social democrats are socialist. The reason why is because their entier mindset is tilted towards the right, so anything a bit left of the liberals (also a rightwing party), is automatically socialist.
The only reason why people like harper and other hicks call social democrats socialist is to try to pry away votes from them.
 
But how do we change the system? How? I want it more than anyone I bet- though I would exclude quebec because I feel that the bloc deserves to dominate there - so how do we get most or all of canada onto such a system?

Well, it will take something drastic to force change. For example, if the party with the highest popular vote doesn't win the most seats in an election. When people see things like that they realize that there are flaws in the system. The other possibility is a coalition government whereby the NDP or Greens use electoral reform as one of its stipulations for joining the coalition. Both of these scenarios are plausible. There are many good academic articles on why voting systems change (one of my former profs Dennis Pilon has written extensively about it).
 
Honestly I'm surprised that the Libs are nearly tied with the Cons given how much criticism Ignatieff has taken in the press over the past year or so. At one point he was nearly facing a revolt in the party who thought they'd made a poor leadership choice just months after electing him. Even his impromptu cross-Canada bus tour this past summer was a flop. Looks like the Lib's saving grace is that a majority of Canadians simply haven't been able to warm up to Harper, which is no surprise given that he comes across like a robotic Ken doll. His icy personality has always been his Achilles heel, only briefly overlooked when he unexpectedly sang a Beatles song at a gala. Too bad for him that he quickly regressed back into robot mode because that was the one time he seemed to connect with the public. I think that even if Harper wins another minority (he won't get more than that), the party will actively start searching for a new leader.
 
The fundamental aspect of socialism is no private property, and that the state controls everything. It is a very big mistake to label social democratic as socialist. Trust me. I know socialists. I was a socialist. The NDP is not socialist, nor does it stand for socialistic values. It is very much a market oriented parted.
You seem to be confusing Socialism for Communism. Socialism is basically asking for a socially managed economy and a freer flow of wealth within society. As such, the NDP is mainly out to better manage the economy and create a stronger social security network.
 

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