Baby, we got a bubble!?

[recharts]

I know I've said it, I think it's very difficult to account for the increased demand of the Y generation. Originally living under their parents roofs, they're all of a sudden requiring their own accomodations. It would be interesting to see a household count comparison, 75 to now. Where by the original household 1.0 of 4 or 5 members is now split into 1+1.5 (discounting by 0.5 to account for marriage to other household members so not to 'double count'). That would be a more insightful measurement to demand than just population growth. Also should not forget immigration growth.

by the way you sound you are clearly the victim of some brain washing going on in the media with generations xyzw and so on.
that is all marketing my friend.
Your so called y generation, as a matter of fact any of them, needs jobs and economic growth before it can afford the prices we have today.
with prices disconnected from rents and salaries nobody mentally healthy would venture to buy unless he or she has a hefty down payment and some savings. Otherwise paying more in rent while the house prices are going down (they will, you can deny it as much as you want) is better on the long term. That is the very problem these days, people are afraid to buy because they don't want to buy a depreciating asset.
By now most of us have looked at their salaries and at the house prices we have today and told themselves: "this is not doable anymore" hence the decreased sales without any economic problem.
If the money was there you should have seen still intense activity on the market..well as most of us know this is not happening. If the stats would not be manipulated that much and the average number trusted that much it would be clear that the market is turning for worse.

PS: I have said these before, the immigrants are not stupid, if they were that rich in their countries to afford the prices we have here believe me that they will not come here. The prices are a lot lower intheir countries and I doubt that they will qualify under the present rules for any mortgage. When you land here you first have to absorb the shock, the perception of the prices we have here might be different for many categories of goods, startig from food and ending with houses.
So ..whoever counts on immigrants to keep the RE market going is out of his mind and has no idea what makes someone to immigrate here.
Of course there is some money laundering from China to Canada but do not expect that to keep going on since Canada and China signed some agreements on this.

Al in all I sense some bias in what you wrote above. Strong bias. However expect my stats, they will prove where we are going with this.

[js97]

by the way you sound you are clearly the victim of some brain washing going on in the media with generations xyzw and so on.
that is all marketing my friend.
Your so called y generation, as a matter of fact any of them, needs jobs and economic growth before it can afford the prices we have today.
with prices disconnected from rents and salaries nobody mentally healthy would venture to buy unless he or she has a hefty down payment and some savings. Otherwise paying more in rent while the house prices are going down (they will, you can deny it as much as you want) is better on the long term. That is the very problem these days, people are afraid to buy because they don't want to buy a depreciating asset.
By now most of us have looked at their salaries and at the house prices we have today and told themselves: "this is not doable anymore" hence the decreased sales without any economic problem.
If the money was there you should have seen still intense activity on the market..well as most of us know this is not happening. If the stats would not be manipulated that much and the average number trusted that much it would be clear that the market is turning for worse.

PS: I have said these before, the immigrants are not stupid, if they were that rich in their countries to afford the prices we have here believe me that they will not come here. The prices are a lot lower intheir countries and I doubt that they will qualify under the present rules for any mortgage. When you land here you first have to absorb the shock, the perception of the prices we have here might be different for many categories of goods, startig from food and ending with houses.
So ..whoever counts on immigrants to keep the RE market going is out of his mind and has no idea what makes someone to immigrate here.
Of course there is some money laundering from China to Canada but do not expect that to keep going on since Canada and China signed some agreements on this.

Al in all I sense some bias in what you wrote above. Strong bias. However expect my stats, they will prove where we are going with this.

Well, my 'bias' is based on first hand experience, between the 20 friends I have. (yes a millidrop in the bucket) but most of them have grown-up in TO, have parent's that live in homes, but now, they have or are in the process of purchasing their own home (from a condo etc).

I myself am in that bucket.

If you want to base your bias on stats, what about the extremely high ownership rate? isn't that an indication that homes are still affordable?


And if you really want a more accurate measure of stats, you would post comparable sales prices from last year, not actual listing prices. Listing prices does not mean much.

Not biased, I just have my finger on the pulse. I would prefer the market tanked a bit, in my position, upgrading my home would be more affordable.

And yes, being in my early/mid thirties, the top end of the Y generation (which I'm) do have good incomes and a hefty, six figure down payment (from riding the market).

I also have friends that have had 6 figure wedding gifts (one with 500k inheritence from an uncle).

International money? Oil kings and Chinese businessman/bureaucrats need a place to 'park' their cash. This is the safest, most tangible asset (from their perception).

I think people that have grown-up in western democracies really take the importance of political and social stability for granted. The idea that the government can't take away your home without some very extenuating circumstances is so appealing that they are more than happy to do so, even at a premium. Although this segment of the market does not generally impact the average consumer, it's still one more contributing driver in this market.

[recharts]

Well, my 'bias' is based on first hand experience, between the 20 friends I have. (yes a millidrop in the bucket) but most of them have grown-up in TO, have parent's that live in homes, but now, they have or are in the process of purchasing their own home (from a condo etc).
I myself am in that bucket.

you mean you are in trouble

If you want to base your bias on stats, what about the extremely high ownership rate? isn't that an indication that homes are still affordable?

No,hat is cheap credit
The owner is the bank.
You are very immature in your opinions about the market.

And if you really want a more accurate measure of stats, you would post comparable sales prices from last year, not actual listing prices. Listing prices does not mean much.

How could I? I started compiling stats this year
However I can compare with the trend which is known.
Let's see what the end of this month brings us
If you want to ignore the fact that low prices follow low sales numbers then go ahead

Not biased, I just have my finger on the pulse. I would prefer the market tanked a bit, in my position, upgrading my home would be more affordable.

That is because, like most of you, you are trapped. You can not sell at a price that will allow you to upgrade easily
The two segments are now disconnected. The condos are not appreciating and not selling (to say at least) with next step price dropping while SFH are just tanking as we speak (in TO, out of 416 we may see price drops this year) with next step not selling and no price increasing

And yes, being in my early/mid thirties, the top end of the Y generation (which I'm) do have good incomes and a hefty, six figure down payment (from riding the market).

Form what ??? If you intend to live in a house you will never get your hands on that money unless you retire.
If your matchbox appreciates so it does the house you want to buy next so your income is null.
I guess you are going to experience a decrease in income soon. Actually, considering your plans if you still own a condo you are already being hit by the increasing difference between still appreciating SFH and your starting to depreciate condo.
However I like your wishful thinking

I also have friends that have had 6 figure wedding gifts (one with 500k inheritence from an uncle).

You are in good company. I hope they all invested in condos :-)

International money? Oil kings and Chinese businessman/bureaucrats need a place to 'park' their cash. This is the safest, most tangible asset (from their perception).

Sure. Let me take a guess here. You are chinese and you share their views

I think people that have grown-up in western democracies really take the importance of political and social stability for granted. The idea that the government can't take away your home without some very extenuating circumstances is so appealing that they are more than happy to do so, even at a premium. Although this segment of the market does not generally impact the average consumer, it's still one more contributing driver in this market.

If they are stupid enough to put their money in Canadian condos sure let them do that.
So far we have seen the media trumpeting the foreign investment since March.
There were hopes that the Toronto and the Vancouver market will resume their ascension to higher prices and increased sales.
It did not happen. Can you explain why? You take your investors for stupids since yu can assume tthat they are not reading the market updates and they do not see signs of trouble in Canada
You have big economist around the world or canadian economists speaking about problems, you have hedge found betting against Canda yet you consider the foreign investors idiots who would buy here when the US RE market is going up like crazy these days.
I can understand why you don;t want to admit it but ...I can not help you

[js97]

I don't even know where to start, but your posts are obviously so ill-informed...

and to be clear, I'm not 'bullish' on the market, but I'm just pointing out that a flat-lining of the market is much more likely scenario, vs this drastic drop you speak of.


And to further clarify things, I'm speaking about major cities market, and SFH's

Curious, are you invested in the market? or just another spectator, waiting in the sidelines (for the past decade), and hoping to 'get in cheap'?

Here's a summary, I'm hilighting some very significant drivers including:

1. Babyboomer downpayments for double income couples (in the 150k+) - first hand experience, across Jews, Asians, Arabics and Anglosaxons canadians.

2. Foreign cash - it's a factor - where else would you 'park your cash'?

3. Perceived low interest rates in the midterm - including 10yr fixed at 4 %

4. Historic analysis - even in the 18% rates of the late 1980's, markets only dropped 20% , and it took over 4 years to do so.

And I'm not actually advocating condos, I think those prices will adjust, slightly, but I'm simply looking at all those units inhabited by urban professionals (Liberty Village, Esplanade, etc etc,)that will eventually want a home. Where do you think all that money is going?

And thank you very much for your concern, but my next home 'upgrade' has a 7+ figure price tag, so I'm not actually 'trapped by any means. Especially when it's a renovated detached in one of the most desirable neighbourhoods in the city. But hey, you obviously don't have all the facts. Oh, and yes, i have rents that generate positive cash flow, even if interest rates hit 10%. So I think I know what I'm doing.

[recharts]

I don't even know where to start, but your posts are obviously so ill-informed...

and to be clear, I'm not 'bullish' on the market, but I'm just pointing out that a flat-lining of the market is much more likely scenario, vs this drastic drop you speak of.


And to further clarify things, I'm speaking about major cities market, and SFH's

Curious, are you invested in the market? or just another spectator, waiting in the sidelines (for the past decade), and hoping to 'get in cheap'?

Here's a summary, I'm hilighting some very significant drivers including:

1. Babyboomer downpayments for double income couples (in the 150k+) - first hand experience, across Jews, Asians, Arabics and Anglosaxons canadians.

2. Foreign cash - it's a factor - where else would you 'park your cash'?

3. Perceived low interest rates in the midterm - including 10yr fixed at 4 %

4. Historic analysis - even in the 18% rates of the late 1980's, markets only dropped 20% , and it took over 4 years to do so.

And I'm not actually advocating condos, I think those prices will adjust, slightly, but I'm simply looking at all those units inhabited by urban professionals (Liberty Village, Esplanade, etc etc,)that will eventually want a home. Where do you think all that money is going?

And thank you very much for your concern, but my next home 'upgrade' has a 7+ figure price tag, so I'm not actually 'trapped by any means. Especially when it's a renovated detached in one of the most desirable neighbourhoods in the city. But hey, you obviously don't have all the facts. Oh, and yes, i have rents that generate positive cash flow, even if interest rates hit 10%. So I think I know what I'm doing.

1. you are clearly delusional. Most of the baby boomers you are mentioning are not able to retire propelry, still carrying a mortgage The internet os full of stats on this
2. I just pointed you to US but you are so full of ... that you ignored my reply. You are wasting my time
3. you are ignoring the facts: SALES ARE DOWN. No matter what is happening with the prices AND people's preception on credit THEY ARE NOT TAKING ANY MORE CREDIT. Again I am wasting my time with you.
4. If you refer to Canada's history (1980) that is so old that you can display it in a museum Today's Canada is not the 1980's Canada anymore. Get that your head. Since you advanced this wishful thinking theory would you mind supporting that with evidences dating back to no longer than 10 years ago ? An let me tell you something, do not count on the average numbers shown to you by high stats. Dive into the area where you own and see what is going there and around.

5 You are doing too good to be true. You are clearly showing off


Edit:
Are these your friends?

http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/showthr...211#post729211

you are full of crap excuse me for saying so. and I suspect that your underwear is full of it as well in these market conditions.
I am done with you no more comments.
You are clearly and exactly the victims of the government sponsored idiocy that started in 2008.
There is many like you and they are in trouble right now. Not sure if stupidity or greediness should be blamed in the case of all these investors.

[js97]

I can't even read what you're saying. Sounds like you're going to blow a gasket trying to convince me of real estate catastrophe.
Yes, sales are down, but from record highs. So I actually think this is a good thing in cooling the market.
Yes, sale prices have been less than listing, but how do they compare to the previous year?

From the sounds of it, you've obviously been watching from the sidelines - perhaps you're the one with a pipedream?


And to be clear, I'm mostly referring to the Toronto market, not averages across the country. During the US crash, major cities like NYC, SFO, LA and CHI did not go through the same price adjustment as the rest of the country. So why would you think Toronto/Vancouver would? Although I think Vancouver is definitely overpriced, will it go through a drastic correction? That's debatable.