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How It Started
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2015 Federal Election

I remember the 2011 campaign, where Harper put out ads talking about how our unemployment rating was lower. It was honestly a big reason why I voted Conservative at the time. Now the tables are turned and the US has better economic numbers.

https://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/03/eko...ith-encouraging-news-for-the-liberals-graves/

There is a new poll out that has the Liberals gaining.

CBC News Alerts ‏@CBCAlerts 44m44 minutes ago
Finance Minister Oliver predicts year of solid growth despite initial GDP decline, recession fears. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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There he is pulling information out of his rear end...
 
No doubt that the Canadian economy is closely tied to that of our closest trading partner the US. But is also interesting to note that under the previous Liberal government, the Canadian and US economies were closely linked, but we lagged behind them by a small amount and now under this government we seem to be outperforming the US.

united-states-gdp-per-capita.png

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Err, tech bubble/low commodities vs. ascendancy of oil post 2000? Not to mention, we didn't tank as badly as the US did in the Great Recession. It would be silly to attribute these differentials to any Canadian political party.

AoD
 
Videodrome said:
https://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/03/eko...ith-encouraging-news-for-the-liberals-graves/

There is a new poll out that has the Liberals gaining.
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The Liberals have made some inroads in BC and Quebec. However they'll still need to make inroads in Quebec and hold on to voters in Ontario if they ever want to win this election. NDP are still holding Quebec and are still more popular in BC and Alberta then the Liberals and if they can hold the numbers in Ontario then they'll have a better chance of forming the next government.
 
I had some decent success predicting Ontario and Mayor election with my formula. Even though it very early. Let me give a try with the federal election. I am tabulating the top polls from the month (ignoring some strong polls like Nanos because they haven't updated during the month) putting more weight on the polls that have had most recent success. This is what I got so far

Angus (June 7) CPC 31... NDP 36... Lib 23... Blc 05... Grn 05
Ipsos (June 23) CPC 28v... NDP 35^... Lib 29v... Blc 06^... Grn 02v
Forum (June 23) CPC 27v... NDP 32v... Lib 29^... Blc 06^... Grn 04^
Ekos (June 26) CPC 27v... NDP 31v... Lib 26^... Blc 06^... Gren 07v
MY AVERAGE: CPC 29... NDP 34... Lib 26... Blc 06... Grn 04

An untold story I think is the Green party here. If the Green Party has a high protest vote (lets say 7%) it makes the NDP in the low 30s and pretty close the CPC with Liberals close behind in third. But once you take out the Green Party protest vote and (lets give them 2 %) NDP goes up to a much more comfortable mid 30s and starts having a comfortable bigger than the margin of error/RW shady practices vs the CPC with the Liberals tied or at times a slight lead over the CPC

The Liberal average is 26 but that's taking the almost month old Angus number. Liberals seems to have jumbed in the later of the months poll. I do wonder if the CPC might have a Ford effect where they have a loyal 30% but have a very short ceiling and is nobody second choice? There negatives seem to be pretty high and distinctive. Of course they are going to go negative, but in previous elections all they had to worry about was Liberals and hope NDP split some vote away from the. But this is the first time it seems like a legit 3way race where they can't focus on negative on one person. They have to somehow convince an NDP/Liberal voter that the CPC is the best second option. If the CPC falls to third, will there bottom fall out and Conservatives vote for "the lesser evil" or will they stay loyal to the end?
 
StatGeek said:
They have to somehow convince an NDP/Liberal voter that the CPC is the best second option. If the CPC falls to third, will there bottom fall out and Conservatives vote for "the lesser evil" or will they stay loyal to the end?
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There isn't much voters the CPC ever took away from the Liberals or NDP. The split vote between the NDP and Liberals and a stable base of CPC voters is what got Harper in. If the NDP can break the Liberal stronghold in Toronto and Southern Ontario, then Harper is in trouble.
 
CodeMonkey said:
There isn't much voters the CPC ever took away from the Liberals or NDP. The split vote between the NDP and Liberals and a stable base of CPC voters is what got Harper in. If the NDP can break the Liberal stronghold in Toronto and Southern Ontario, then Harper is in trouble.
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What "Liberal stronghold in Toronto and Southern Ontario"? In 2011 the Liberals only won 11 seats in Ontario.
 
BurlOak said:
No doubt that the Canadian economy is closely tied to that of our closest trading partner the US. But is also interesting to note that under the previous Liberal government, the Canadian and US economies were closely linked, but we lagged behind them by a small amount and now under this government we seem to be outperforming the US.

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source
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Are you serious? What does the GDP per capita of Canada and US from January 1, 1994 to January, 1 2006 have to do with the current government?
 
Are you serious? You can't even go back 3 posts to see where the the graph from 2006 to current is. And isn't the best way to rate the current government is to compare it to the previous one.
 
Am I the only one who is really getting annoyed from seeing all the Conservatives ads of "he's just not ready" and "Canada's Action Plan" that's really just another Conservative party ad they didn't have to pay for? Do these ads really have an impact on people?
 
Nope, you definitely aren't the only one. It's not just the Trudeau ad or the CAP - there is also the stupid tax credit one too. Complete waste of money - it's a major turnoff.

BurlOak said:
And isn't the best way to rate the current government is to compare it to the previous one.
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Sure, since simplicity without consideration to context seems to be the theme du jour, perhaps we should pull out some metrics around, oh I don't know, debt, poverty, etc.

AoD
 
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Yep, I mute the ads or change stations every time they come on, which seems to be at least once an hour, no matter what channel I'm watching. As soon as I hear "Lots of interesting resumes here today, let's talk about Justin!", that's my cue to turn it off.
 
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